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By sheer statistical coincidence, the percentage of Americans who self-identify as independents (approximately 40 percent) is nearly identical to the percentage of Americans who self-identify as moderates. This coincidence has nurtured a common misunderstanding: that independents are mostly moderates who want members of both parties to move toward the center. But a growing body of literature studying the precise political attitudes of the public – and especially moderates and independents – is

As of May 10th, 2016, more than 75% of states have held either presidential primaries or caucuses. FairVote has compiled the number of votes casts in state primaries for each candidate to this point, as well as the reported number of votes in state caucuses--though caucus numbers are less reliable than primary elections. Here is summary analysis of state presidential primary election voter turnout to this point in the nomination process. Primary Turnout in 2016 Compared to Contests in 2008 and

Paul Ryan, roundly supported as the GOP choice for vice president in 2012 by conservatives and tea party advocates, has received a primary opponent for his first congressional district seat. With the weekend endorsement of Sarah Palin, the challenger is about to begin receiving scrutiny. Paul Nehlen, a business owner who openly supports Donald Trump for president, may be looking to capitalize on many of the same issues that helped propel the real estate mogul: trade and immigration. Nehlen's m

As is the nature of a federal republic, all too often major presidential elections come down to just a handful of states. This year, it's beginning to look like ten states will make or break the presidential bids for the White House: The Democrats have a slight lead in the secure electoral votes. Being able to consistently claim California is definitely a major boost. But this year's battleground map has some interesting quirks; namely, that both Trump and Clinton did very well in most of thes

On a chilly April day, over a hundred protesters gather on the steps of a city hall and repeatedly chant, “Let us vote! Let us vote!” You can hear the passion in the protesters' voices but you can also sense a silent acknowledgement among them that they will not be able to cast their vote in the immediate future. This may seem like a scene from the pre-Civil Rights era or a 1920s suffragette rally but, amazingly, it is not. I watched this happen on Thursday in New York. Because New York is a c

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders is on a winning streak, having won eight of the last nine contests. Though Sanders still trails in terms of pledged delegates (whose support is tied to electoral outcomes in caucuses and primaries) by a count of 1,287 to 1,037, his deficit among superdelegates is even larger. Created in the early 1980s to empower "party leaders and elected officials" (PLEOs), superdelegates can vote for whichever candidate they prefer at the presidential nominating convention. Among

As the Republican presidential nomination seemingly narrows to two candidates, others in the GOP are reportedly seeking a stealth candidate with a military background. Called the "Warrior Monk" for his dedication to studying war and his refusal to marry or have children, retired U.S. Marine General James Mattis is supposedly being courted by GOP consultants and donors as an alternative to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. There is a history of political parties nominating or seeking high-ranking serv

The voter turnout in the Wisconsin primaries Tuesday surpassed expectations and broke records. Around 1.1 million voters turned out in the Republican primary while 1 million showed up on the Democratic side. It was the highest primary turnout in the state in decades. The 49% voter turnout smashed the 40% projection made by the Government Accountability Board, even beating the 47.7% turnout of 1972 when George McGovern (D) and Richard Nixon (R) won their respective primaries. The only state wit

During my Business Research and Quantitative Analysis course for my MBA five years ago, the topic of cellphones in research was a topic that came up many times -- a paradigm shift is happening in how we use technology and phones. While it's illegal to directly telemarket toward cellphone numbers in most circumstances, political polling is different, and the impacts of being able to use cellphones and landlines shows an enormous gap in American opinions and makeup. The younger generations are m

In the early 1990s, journalist Dan Baum interviewed Nixon aide John Ehrlichman while doing research for a book on the effects of drug prohibition. Ehrlichman had served as a domestic policy adviser to Nixon, who in June 1971 declared a "war on drugs." After an initially fruitless discussion, Baum reports that Ehrlichman made the following confession about the real motive behind the administration's declaration of the drug war: The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after that, ha