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NASHVILLE, Tenn. - An early Aug. PBS/NPR/Marist poll found Harris leading Trump by 11 percentage points among independents, but a Sept. poll puts Trump ahead by 3 points.

But with a 14-point surge in the latest poll published right before their first debate, in what the Kansas City Star called “a dramatic shift from one month ago,” a great number of independents appear to have decided to support Trump.

That's a pretty resounding trend change in Trump's favor. Will he hold on to that lead after the debate Tuesday? 

Trump Debates Harris

Harris automatically gains some ground in the election just by showing up for the debate and doing merely adequate. It elevates her to parity with the former president for the second time on the national stage since the Democratic convention. If she uses the audition to connect with more undecided voters, even better.

So, in order for Trump to win, his appearance had to at least effectively consolidate his support with the new independent voters who say they have decided to support him in November and activate them to turn out on Election Day.

Meanwhile, for Kamala Harris to make gains among independent voters because of the debate, her answers must have persuaded some winnable key segments of them that although she is Vice President and a Senator and the DNC’s nominee, that she has grassroots bona fides and that her administration’s plans win for them over Trump’s.

She went for that approach early on in the debate, telling voters she grew up middle class and will support small business as president, while Trump will support billionaires and corporations. If effective, that’s a tactic that could pull in some Jill Stein like voters that lean toward her party.

Music sensation Swift’s endorsement may help voters buy that image of her, but also Swift is the establishment.

So how did the candidates do?

Trump Playing for The Middle Again?

An interesting finding in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll: 

"Plurality of Americans Think Harris is Too Liberal… Similar Proportion Says Trump is Too Conservative"

"47% of Americans think Harris’ political ideology is too liberal... 43% say Trump is too conservative..."

It doesn't matter how far past 50% she wins in California if Harris doesn't pull out wins in key swing states where independent voters could be a deciding factor.

While his personality is very polarizing, Trump's politics play to the middle of the spectrum, which is why 12% of the anti-corporation Bernie voters defected after the primary and voted for Trump in the 2016 general.

Although he was the Republican Party’s nominee in 2016, his candidacy had many of the qualities of an independent bid and a movement that roiled the establishment.

Upon the candidates greeting, Trump declined to speak first.

That’s a real NBC power move from the Office right there. 

Michael: “I decline to speak first.”

Darryl: “Okay I’ll start. It’s pretty simple really. I think I deserve a raise.”

Harris opened with characteristic Californian friendliness by walking over to Trump’s side of the stage and introducing herself.

During Harris’ first speech, Trump held pretty still, giving an eye roll a couple times. During Trump’s first speech, Harris glared daggers at him, gave him the stink eye, and laughed at him.

With her own base, these affectations communicate that they are all on the same page together in disagreement with Trump.

But Harris wasn’t as relaxed in her delivery as the stolid Trump, so some of her responses looked unreal. For those watching to decide who to vote for she may not have appeared as believable as Trump.

Trump does this sort of thing too and had his moments during the debate but has more of that East Coast reserve and doesn’t over-play his delivery as much. He was very energetic and clearly animated by the topics he discussed and showed an intelligent care for them.

At first, Harris seemed more animated by Trump than the issues, an approach which Democratic strategists have said for months they believe is their party’s best chance of motivating voters. 

Her campaign’s strategists said that her goal was to wear Trump down with her answers and trigger him to lose his composure and make a fool of himself somehow in the debate. 

It wasn’t until 25 minutes into the debate that Harris really caught her stride and started to sound like herself and presidential at the same time and give off some of that fun subversive energy Bill Clinton pulled off to fantastic effect in the debates with George Bush.

Audience Ratings: No Blue Wave

It’s shaping up to be an election with what kind of candidate Trump once said Jeb Bush was.

With 73 million viewers tuning in to watch Trump debate— Biden for the first time in 2020, ratings are down by 8% to 67 million for this campaign’s first debate.

The low audience rating bodes well for Republicans. Lower turnout elections bear some correlation to Republican advantages in the elections going back to the 1980s.

One reason Trump might be doing better this time around despite his side taking it pretty far being sore losers and the other side doing the same being sore winners is…

Voters might not be afraid of him anymore.

In the 2016 election, many press reports gave the impression that he would bring WWII-style European fascism to the federal government if he was elected.*

This far-right, talk radio, exaggerating way of talking about the news upset a lot of people. 

People felt real grief over the election of Trump.

Several universities and even employers gave students and workers time off and office park mental health therapists reported an uptick in trauma related to Trump.

So, the first stage of Trump grief may have been fear of him. Then the second stage was in 2020, when voters were so afraid of him, they voted him out.

But now upon reflection, and seeing he just did a tariff war and not N***ism…

Plus seeing him go to jail and get his mug shot taken, it may have reminded people that it’s just Trump after all, and there’s something funnier about him than truly sinister.

Him and some guy from your Sunday school class whose family does HVAC or delivers refrigerators or something in your neighborhood.

There is only so long most people can keep up that kind of fight or flight emotional reaction to their co-workers over social media that a number of people had going over Trump. 

Will the debate change up Trump’s new lead among independents?

The next poll will tell.

*We did have some pretty tight curfews for this neighborhood, but both sides wanted that, and a unanimous consensus of scientists said it would save the planet