Independent  and Latino voters are among the fastest growing segments of  California’s electorate.  A new poll provides a window into the  Independent Latino vote and reveals that Independents now outnumber Republicans among the Latino voting class.

Voters  who decline to state an affiliation with any political party are among  the fastest growing segments of California’s electorate.  In 1998, only  14% of California voters chose political independence over party  affiliation.  By 2010, that number increased to 20%, while  identification with the Democratic and Republican parties fell.  As the  Secretary of State’s office reported last week, the number of registered  voters who decline to state a party affiliation is at an all-time high.

“A new all-time high percentage of California voters, 20.4 percent,  have no party preference . . . The previous record for the proportion of  unaffiliated voters was 20.25 percent of all registered voters,  reported in October 2010,” announced a press release (.pdf) from Debra Bowen.

According to the corresponding Report of  Registration, 44% of California voters are Democrats and just under 31%  are Republicans.

If  current trends continue, it is only a matter of time before  Independents overtake Republicans in the Golden State.   A projection  published earlier this month in the Orange County Register suggested that Independents could outnumber Republicans statewide by  2022.  Significantly, among Latino voters, they already do.  This is  just one finding from a new survey of likely Latino voters published by Republican consultant Bob Moore and pollster Marty  Wilson.  The survey was intended to assess ways by which the GOP could  gain a larger share of the Latino vote; however, since the report breaks  down its findings by partisan affiliation, it also provides a good look  at the views of Independent Latinos.

According  to the survey, Independents and third party supporters already  outnumber Republicans among California’s Latino voters.  61% of  respondents to the survey stated that they are Democrats, compared with  21% who identified themselves as decline-to-state voters or third party  supporters, and just 18% who said they are Republican.  This is a  significant finding compared with polling from late last year.  A Public Policy Institute of California survey from September 2010 found that 65% of likely Latino voters  identified themselves as Democrats, 18% as Republican, and 17% as  Independent or other.  Comparing the two surveys, it would appear that  Latinos disaffected with the Democratic party have chosen to register as  Independents rather than Republicans.

The  three biggest complaints or concerns about the Democratic party for  Latino voters, according to the Moore and Wilson survey, were wasteful  spending, poor leadership and an inability to follow through on  promises.  But California Latinos favor Democrats over Republicans by  wide margins.  62% of those surveyed stated they have a favorable view  of the Democratic Party, compared with only 26% who have a favorable  view of the GOP.  Interestingly, though the Moore and Wilson survey  found that there is a greater percentage of Democrats among California’s  Latino voters than in the state at large (61% and 44% respectively), it  also found that Latino voters are not as liberal as voters.

“Latino voters are more conservative than Democrats or DTS   voters.  Fully a third of all California Latinos  are conservative, while only one-in-seven Democrats and one-in-four DTS  voters are conservative,” write Moore and Wilson.

Among  all Latino voters, opinion is remarkably consistent across partisan  lines on the few issues considered in the survey.  66% of all Latino  voters support immigration reform, including 63% of Republicans, 66% of  Democrats and 67% of Independents.  A large majority of Latinos also  agree that people who have entered the United States illegally should be  given a pathway to citizenship, including 51% of Republicans, 72% of  Democrats and 65% of DTS and third party supporters.  Similarly, a  majority of Latino voters of all partisan persuasions stated they that  would consider voting for a Republican Party candidate with whom they  disagreed on immigration if they agreed with that candidate’s views on  education or the economy, national security, environmental issues, and  so on.  However, 32% of those polled stated that they would “never vote  for a Republican” including 31% of Independents, 39% of Democrats, and,  surprisingly, 11% of Republicans!

Decline-to-state  voters are the fastest growing segment of  California’s electorate, and Latinos are the fastest growing demographic in the state.  If Latinos represent 21% of the state  electorate, as is widely reported in the mainstream media, and 21% of  Latino voters are third party supporters or Independents, then the third  party and Independent Latino vote accounts for about 4.4% of the electorate  as a whole, which is more than 750,000 voters.  This is more than enough to  swing a close statewide election.