On Eve of Election Nate Silver Flinches, Says GOP House Win "Extremely Possible"

image
Wes MessamoreWes Messamore
Published: 05 Nov, 2018
1 min read

Although his election forecasting website, FiveThirtyEight, still gives Democrats a 7 in 8 chance (87%) of winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and Republicans a paltry 1 in 8 chance (13%), statistician Nate Silver hedged rather significantly in an interview on ABC's This Week Sunday.

Silver– who rose to national prominence after accurately forecasting an impressive number of vote tallies in the 2008 elections, earning himself a spot in The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time Magazine in 2009, and a place for his election forecasting blog on the pages of the New York Times' website– is going into the 2018 elections humbled by the surprise win of Donald Trump in 2016.

(Although to be fair to Silver, his forecast giving Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance was more accurate than other pollsters who gave the former Secretary of State anywhere from an 85% to a 99% probability of winning.)

Here are the three hedges Nate Silver made regarding his organization's projections for the 2018 midterm elections:

1. "Polls aren't always right."

2. "No one should be surprised" if Democrats don't take control of the House of Representatives after this election.

3. A Democratic and a Republican House majority "are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world."

We'll all know soon after the votes are counted Tuesday.

For up to date election coverage from a non-partisan perspective right in your newsfeed, be sure to LIKE the Independent Voter page on Facebook, and FOLLOW @IVN on Twitter.

IVP Donate

You Might Also Like

Will the Texas Republican Party be Successful Where the Hawaiian Democratic Party Failed?
Will the Texas Republican Party be Successful Where the Hawaiian Democratic Party Failed?
The Republican Party of Texas (RPT) is suing Secretary of State Jane Nelson in an effort to close the state’s primary elections to party members only – a move that the Democratic Party of Hawaii (DPH) tried back in 2013 in its state and failed. ...
05 Sep, 2025
-
3 min read
Supreme Court building.
Retired Attorney Takes Voting Rights Case All the Way to the Supreme Court -- By Himself
The next big voting rights case the Supreme Court of the United States could consider wasn’t filed by the ACLU, the League of Women Voters, Common Cause, or another household name when it comes to voter rights. ...
09 Sep, 2025
-
5 min read
congress flag
Poll: 82% of Americans Want Redistricting Done by Independent Commission, Not Politicians
There may be no greater indication that voters are not being listened to in the escalating redistricting war between the Republican and Democratic Parties than a new poll from NBC News that shows 8-in-10 Americans want the parties to stop....
10 Sep, 2025
-
3 min read