Trump Has Double Digit Lead among Independents; DNC in Damage Control

image
Author: Marisa Gomez
Published: 26 Jul, 2016
Updated: 17 Oct, 2022
2 min read

Donald Trump can only be all smiles after the Republican National Convention. Latest polls of the presidential race -- whether looking at a 4-way race or 2-person race -- show Trump either winning or in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton.

It's often called the "convention bump," and Trump has received a huge bump as of late. According to various polls, Trump's post-convention lead among independent voters is as high as 16 percentage points.

And Trump is getting support from some surprising sources. According to IVN independent author Griffin Edwards, some disillusioned Sanders supporters are choosing Trump over Hillary Clinton, despite Sanders insisting that his supporters should vote for Clinton.

These supporters along with broad support from other independent voters are likely the powerhouse behind Trump's lead, which has only grown while Clinton's numbers have remained stagnate and have even dropped.

CNN’s 4-way poll between Trump, Clinton, Johnson, and Stein leaves Clinton 5 points behind Trump. Polling comparing Trump and Clinton by themselves shows a 3-point advantage for Trump.

A poll from the week before the convention showed Clinton with a 7-point lead.

Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, believes that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would be victorious. On July 22, Silver tweeted, “Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.”

RealClear Politics averaged eight of the nation’s largest polls and placed Trump at a 0.9% advantage in a two-person race. Clinton has an average 0.2% lead in a 4-way race, both showing a statistical tie at the moment between the candidates.

The "convention bump" may help the Democrats at the end of the week, but only time will tell. The DNC started off rocky with the developing email scandal that led to party chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to resign..

IVP Donate

Right now, the DNC is in damage-control mode and the RNC is looking forward to November. While the Trump campaign did some damage control of its own after Melania Trump plagiarized parts of Michelle Obama’s 2008 DNC speech, none of that drama compares to the removal of DNC leadership days before the convention opened.

Silver may be right; voters need to be aware of the closeness of this election. Trump’s lead this week is monumental for his campaign, but anything can happen in the upcoming months that could tip the scales in either candidate’s favor.

History will be made whichever way the scale leans. The reality is that predictions concerning the illegitimacy of Trump’s campaign are false. Trump could win this and voters should prepare for that.

Photo Credit: lev radin / Shutterstock.com

Latest articles

CA capitol building dome with flags.
Why is CA Senator Mike McGuire Trying to Kill the Legal Cannabis Industry?
California’s legal cannabis industry is under mounting pressure, and in early June, state lawmakers and the governor appeared poised to help. A bill to freeze the state’s cannabis excise tax at 15% sailed through the State Assembly with a unanimous 74-0 vote. The governor’s office backed the plan. And legal cannabis businesses, still struggling to compete with unregulated sellers and mounting operating costs, saw a glimmer of hope....
03 Jul, 2025
-
7 min read
I voted buttons
After First RCV Election, Charlottesville Voters Back the Reform: 'They Get It, They Like It, They Want to Do It Again'
A new survey out of Charlottesville, Virginia, shows overwhelming support for ranked choice voting (RCV) following the city’s first use of the system in its June Democratic primary for City Council. Conducted one week after the election, the results found that nearly 90% of respondents support continued use of RCV....
03 Jul, 2025
-
3 min read
Crowd in Time Square.
NYC Exit Survey: 96% of Voters Understood Their Ranked Choice Ballots
An exit poll conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of the nonprofit better elections group FairVote finds that ranked choice voting (RCV) continues to be supported by a vast majority of voters who find it simple, fair, and easy to use. The findings come in the wake of the city’s third use of RCV in its June 2025 primary elections....
01 Jul, 2025
-
6 min read