Donald Trump can only be all smiles after the Republican National Convention. Latest polls of the presidential race — whether looking at a 4-way race or 2-person race — show Trump either winning or in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton.
It’s often called the “convention bump,” and Trump has received a huge bump as of late. According to various polls, Trump’s post-convention lead among independent voters is as high as 16 percentage points.
And Trump is getting support from some surprising sources. According to IVN independent author Griffin Edwards, some disillusioned Sanders supporters are choosing Trump over Hillary Clinton, despite Sanders insisting that his supporters should vote for Clinton.
These supporters along with broad support from other independent voters are likely the powerhouse behind Trump’s lead, which has only grown while Clinton’s numbers have remained stagnate and have even dropped.
CNN’s 4-way poll between Trump, Clinton, Johnson, and Stein leaves Clinton 5 points behind Trump. Polling comparing Trump and Clinton by themselves shows a 3-point advantage for Trump.
A poll from the week before the convention showed Clinton with a 7-point lead.
Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, believes that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would be victorious. On July 22, Silver tweeted, “Don’t think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It’s a close election right now.”
RealClear Politics averaged eight of the nation’s largest polls and placed Trump at a 0.9% advantage in a two-person race. Clinton has an average 0.2% lead in a 4-way race, both showing a statistical tie at the moment between the candidates.
The “convention bump” may help the Democrats at the end of the week, but only time will tell. The DNC started off rocky with the developing email scandal that led to party chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to resign..
Right now, the DNC is in damage-control mode and the RNC is looking forward to November. While the Trump campaign did some damage control of its own after Melania Trump plagiarized parts of Michelle Obama’s 2008 DNC speech, none of that drama compares to the removal of DNC leadership days before the convention opened.
Silver may be right; voters need to be aware of the closeness of this election. Trump’s lead this week is monumental for his campaign, but anything can happen in the upcoming months that could tip the scales in either candidate’s favor.
History will be made whichever way the scale leans. The reality is that predictions concerning the illegitimacy of Trump’s campaign are false. Trump could win this and voters should prepare for that.