Study: Majority Vote Doesn't Matter When Parties Pick Their Voters

image
Published: 10 Jun, 2016
2 min read

A June 8 study published by the National Committee for an Effective Congress frames the effects of redistricting on congressional seats; namely, that the gerrymandering enacted in 2001 and 2011 have created large disparities between voters' intents and election results.

The NCEC study introduces a metric called the "seat-to-vote differential,"which calculates the difference in percentage between number of seats taken by the majority party and votes for that party.

For instance, in 1994, the majority party (Democrats) won 47.1% of seats with 46.9% of votes, with a seat-to-vote differential of about -.3. Using this measurement, the NCEC cites increasing fluctuations in the seat-to-vote differential as evidence of unfair redistricting practices: from 1994 through 2000, the differential fluctuates between .3 and .9, with one cycle (1996) at -2.6.

However, after the 2001 redistricting process, cycles from 2002-2010 range from -2.4 to 3.5. And the two cycles after 2011 redistricting, 2012 and 2014, score -4.5 and 3.8, respectively.

In short, the difference between the percentage of seats won has, in recent years, strayed further and further from the percentage of votes given to the majority party. According to the data, election results are increasingly failing to reflect the actual decisions of the American voter.

What's more, courts have yet to assert that there is anything illegal or unconstitutional about an incumbent protection scheme designed specifically to protect a party's majority. In many instances, the court has ruled that it cannot or won't tell state legislators how to draw electoral districts.

READ MORE": ‘Two Parties, One Winner’ Shouldn’t Override ‘One Person, One Vote’

Modern courts only tend to intervene when partisan gerrymandering may or may not be targeting demographics based on race, even though the Supreme Court established the legal precedent of "one person, one vote" in the 1964 case, Reynolds v. Sims.

The NCEC study shows that the role partisan gerrymandering has on disenfranchising voters continues to widen, protecting incumbents while keeping elections from being competitive. This creates an environment in which the interests of the voters are not reflected in state or federal legislatures.

You Might Also Like

Why Mathematicians Love Ranked Choice Voting
Why Mathematicians Love Ranked Choice Voting
The Institute for Mathematics and Democracy (IMD) has released what may be the most comprehensive empirical study of ranked choice voting ever conducted. The 66-page report analyzes nearly 4,000 real-world ranked ballot elections, including some 2,000 political elections, and more than 60 million simulated ones to test how different voting methods perform....
11 Dec, 2025
-
4 min read
California flag
Quirk Silva’s Exit Sparks a High-Profile Orange County Clash, Where Independent Voters Control the Math
California’s 67th Assembly District stretches across parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, connecting some of the region’s most dynamic and diverse suburban communities. It includes the entire cities of Cerritos, La Palma, Hawaiian Gardens, Artesia, Buena Park, and Cypress, as well as portions of Fullerton and Anaheim....
18 Dec, 2025
-
6 min read
Donald Trump
Trump Signs Order to Reclassify Cannabis to Schedule III
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump announced Thursday that his administration will officially move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act, a decision that marks the most significant change to U.S. drug policy since the early 1970s....
18 Dec, 2025
-
2 min read