Steve Poizner was once considered too far behind in the polls for the Republican gubernatorial nomination; however, the tide now seems to be changing.  With recent events on the immigration reform front, Poizner seems to be using these issues as political capital in his surging bid.

According to Michael A. Moodian, assistant professor of social science at Brandman University in Irvine, immigration enforcer Poizner may now have a legitimate chance against the attack ad machine of Meg Whitman.  Poizner, he says, is reaffirming the campaign stance on the more heated issue of illegal immigration in an attempt to pin Whitman into the corner.

Both Poizner and Whitman differ on the Arizona immigration law, with Poizner strongly supporting it while Whitman has gone on record opposing it.  On the immigration issue, Moodian cites a peculiar coincidence between the initial popularity of Whitman in places like Orange County, and also her decline when she voiced her dissent.

Poizner is actually in line with the majority of Orange County residents favoring the crackdown and believing that illegal immigrants are a cost to the state (sixty six percent), Moodian said in his piece.  This is significant, Moodian said, because the OC is a conservative central of sorts in California, considered important in light of eyeing one’s chances for the Republican nomination.

Citing a poll taken of Republican residents in Orange County, Moodian says that the rise of Poizner is connected to an issue of “messaging.”  “What has happened since April, when Whitman was enjoying success in Orange County and elsewhere, while Poizner was reeling?,” he asked in his op-ed.

“It has been an issue of messaging. Our poll shows that after jobs and the economy (an issue that both candidates have addressed heavily), immigration is the second most important problem on the minds of people in Orange County,” he says.
Whitman’s opposition to the Arizona law is essentially a slap in the face of Republicans who once garnered strong support for her, and could hurt her in the future.

Poizner, as Moodian shows, is not only framing his message to match his base in the state, but also the general mood of the country as a whole.  Given this aspect of the situation, Poizner seems to matching up against Whitman very well and (as the author says) has decent shot at taking the nomination.

As to whether he’d survive round two (i.e. the general election) is highly questionable. Based on the sampling of Democrats in a recent poll, approximately 60 percent of Orange County residents oppose the crackdown mindset of Poizner.

Among independents, Poizner’s crackdown mentality is split right down the middle in terms of support.