In 2009, the Obama administration and Congress predicted the nearly $800 billion stimulus bill would cap national unemployment at 8.1% and create/save 3.5 million jobs over a two-year period. More specifically, the White House predicted that the stimulus bill would add 396,000 new jobs to California through December 2010. Thus far, none of these predictions appear to be panning out. Since the stimulus, national unemployment has reached 9.8%, and based on this chart out of Congressman Dave Camp’s office, the job numbers leave much to be desired. Since the stimulus was passed, California has lost 336,400 jobs.
As of right now, stimulus predictions are being contradicted by the real data. Both job losses and the unemployment rate are much higher than expected. Not only that, the stimulus bill has increased the budget deficit, added to the national debt, and contributed to further devaluation of the U.S. Dollar.
The White House and Congress are claiming that the stimulus bill, while not achieving some of its early goals, has likely prevented a far worse crisis and will begin to really kick in next year. Fair enough. The bill has another 14 months to be put to the test. If its predictions are to come to fruition, then by December 2010, the national unemployment rate will have dramatically dropped, millions of jobs will have been added, and California will be flush with new workers. We’ll have to wait and see.