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Garamendi leads in first poll for race in CD-10

by Indy, published

As befits a man who has been in some form of California government service for the past 30 years, a poll released Monday evening shows that Lt. Gov. John Garamendi would soundly beat virtually all opponents vying to replace U.S. Rep. Ellen Tauscher in the 10th Congressional District if the election was held immediately.

Conducted May 1-4 by Sacramento pollster Jim Moore of J. Moore Methods Inc., the survey concentrated on the major likely candidates in the race to replace Tauscher who has been appointed Undersecretary of State in the Obama Administration. It quizzed voters on their opinions of Garamendi, state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Concord) and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan (D-Alamo). Moore also asked voters about the possible leading Republican candidate for the race, Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf.

If the election were held presently, the poll shows that Garamendi would walk away with 24 percent of the vote. His closest competitor, DeSaulnier, would bring in 13 percent and Buchanan would collect 10 percent. Ruph would garner 17 percent of the vote, Moore reported.

Since Tauscher must still be first confirmed by the U.S. Senate before she can take office, the actual date of the election to replace her has not been determined.

The poll also shows the lieutenant governor owning a commanding lead when it comes to "favorability" ratings amongst voters:

--Garamendi: 80 percent favorable; 12 percent unfavorable.

--DeSaulnier: 16 percent favorable; 13 percent unfavorable.

--Buchanan: 17 percent favorable; 12 percent unfavorable.

--Ruph: 9 percent favorable; 9 percent unfavorable..

"I have served the people of the 10th Congressional District in one form or another for decades," Garamendi said in a prepared statement. "This poll reflects my decades of public service fighting for issues that matter to voters in Contra Costa, Solano, Alameda, and Sacramento counties."

The poll did not measure voter responses to two other Democrats in the race, Anthony Woods of Fairfield and Adriel Hampton of Dublin. Likewise Moore did not inquire about voter opinions on possible Republican candidates Nick Gerber of Moraga, Tom Del Beccaro of Lafayette, Catherine Moy of Fairfield and David Harmer of Dougherty Valley.

Moore said the poll contacted 400 likely voters in the district and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

Follow Jeff Mitchell's political journalism at

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