logo

2016 Primary Election: Mayoral Poll

image
Created: 24 May, 2016
Updated: 21 November, 2022
2 min read

SAN DIEGO, CALIF. - The Independent Voter Network San Diego has conducted a Mayoral Poll for the 2016 Primary election on June 7 in San Diego. It was conducted over the past four days.

The poll represents an unbiased, cross-section of registered voters in the City of San Diego. The poll was completed by more than 600 people and has a +/- margin of error of 3.5%.

IVN San Diego used a proprietary technique to target registered voters on Facebook and connect their party registration to their poll choices.  Only those voters who were targeted were included in the results. If someone navigated to the poll on their own, or was sent the poll from an outside source, it was denoted in their entry and not included in the result.

To further ensure accuracy, duplicates were identified through a number of factors and removed.

The results are the following (percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding):

When asked if the election were held today which mayoral candidate would you vote for?

Kevin Faulconer: 48.06%

Lori Saldaña: 26.41%

IVP Existence Banner

Ed Harris: 20.47%

Other: 5.06%

 

How strong is your support for your chosen candidate?

Very strong: 63.23%

Already voted by mail: 24.58%

Not very strong: 8.26%

Considering changing vote: 3.94%

IVP Existence Banner

 

We are now going to identify the three candidates by party affiliation. How would you vote?

Rep. Kevin Faulconer: 46.97%

Independent Lori Saldaña: 26.10%

Dem. Ed Harris: 23.36%

Undecided/Other: 3.57%

 

The poll was weighted to match turnouts similar to the last two Presidential primary elections in 2008 and 2012. Those turnouts are seen below:

IVP Existence Banner

Registered Democrat: 45.00%

Registered Republican: 35.00%

Registered NPP/Independent: 20.00%

 

Engagement was also tracked by age:

18-24: 5.05%

25-34: 8.70%

35-44: 10.55%

IVP Existence Banner

45-54: 19.96%

55-64: 25.63%

65+: 30.11%

 

Key Findings:

  • Mayor Faulconer is within the margin of error of winning the election outright in June
  • When party affiliation is identified Democratic candidate Ed Harris gets the biggest bump of nearly 3%
  • The methodology may understate the number of undecideds. An important factor in a race in which only one candidate is receiving substantial funding

Latest articles

votes
Wyoming Purges Nearly 30% of Its Voters from Registration Rolls
It is not uncommon for a state to clean out its voter rolls every couple of years -- especially to r...
27 March, 2024
-
1 min read
ballot box
The Next Big Win in Better Election Reform Could Come Where Voters Least Expect
Idaho isn't a state that gets much attention when people talk about politics in the US. However, this could change in 2024 if Idahoans for Open Primaries and their allies are successful with their proposed initiative....
21 March, 2024
-
3 min read
Courts
Why Do We Accept Partisanship in Judicial Elections?
The AP headline reads, "Ohio primary: Open seat on state supreme court could flip partisan control." This immediately should raise a red flag for voters, and not because of who may benefit but over a question too often ignored....
19 March, 2024
-
9 min read
Nick Troiano
Virtual Discussion: The Primary Solution with Unite America's Nick Troiano
In the latest virtual discussion from Open Primaries, the group's president, John Opdycke, sat down ...
19 March, 2024
-
1 min read
Sinema
Sinema's Exit Could Be Bad News for Democrats -- Here's Why
To many, the 2024 presidential primary has been like the movie Titanic - overly long and ending in a disaster we all saw coming from the start. After months of campaigning and five televised primary debates, Americans are now faced with a rematch between two candidates polling shows a majority of them didn’t want....
19 March, 2024
-
7 min read