Top California State Assembly Races to Watch
By Lucy Ma | 04/27/2012 | California, Elections 2012, State Office, States | 2 Comments
Earlier this week, the Independent Voter Network profiled four California State Senate races that should be on every Independent voter’s elections watch list.
The races surrounding the 80 State Assembly seats up for grabs this year in California promise to be equally exciting. Under the newly drawn district lines, 35 of these seats are currently open with no sitting incumbent.
The top two vote-getters on June 5th, regardless of party, will advance to a runoff in November. Due to California’s political makeup, there are several districts where Decline to State voters will help candidates pave the path to victory in the state’s first ever “open primary”.
Here is a rundown of four California State Assembly races where the Independent vote will be decisive:
State Assembly District 8:
This newly drawn Sacramento County seat will be a key battleground between Democrats and Republicans this election cycle. Six candidates are vying for the vote: four Republicans (Barbara Ortega, Phillip Tufi, John Flynn and Peter Tateishi), Democrat Ken Cooley, and Libertarian Janice Bonser. The difference in voter registration numbers between Democrats and Republicans are minimal at just under one percentage point- which makes the nearly 18% that have registered as “No Party Preference” or “Other” crucial to this race.
State Assembly District 28:
Democratic Assemblyman Paul Fong will be facing challenger Chad Walsh, a “No Party Preference” candidate and Community College Trustee. Voter registration numbers in this redrawn Santa Clara district put Democrats at a decided double-digit advantage over Republicans. However, over 27% of those registered to vote in the June 5th primary have declared “No Party Preference” or “Other”- a key factor in this race.
State Assembly District 57:
In AD 57, there are two Democrats and one Republican candidate on the ballot for this June. Democrat Ian Calderon (son of Assembly Majority Leader Charles Calderon) will be facing off against fellow Democrat and former Assemblyman Rudy Bermudez, as well as Republican businessman Noel Jaimes. Voter registration numbers favor Democrats over Republicans at 47.70% to 28.35% respectively. Voters that have registered under “No Party Preference” or “Other” makeup over 21% of the electorate- an important bloc for all three candidates going into the primary.
State Assembly District 77:
This is a four way contest between Democrat Ruben Hernandez, Republican Brian Maienschein, Republican Dustin Steiner, and No Party Preference candidate Greg Laskaris. Republicans have just under a nine point voter registration advantage over Democrats in the district- while Independent voters makeup nearly 27% of the electorate. Those registered as “No Party Preference” or “Other” are sure to be a primary focus for those hoping to make it through to the November runoff.
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2 Comments
noeljaimes
04.27.2012
@noeljaimes
Thank you for placing the 57th AD race among the top AD races to watch for the 2012 June primacy election. As the Republican on the ballot. Yes my odds are 2 to 1 in winning the Primary in the fall. But there are some interesting events happening in the district that numbers can’t explain. Rumor has it that this election for the 57th AD is really in the hands of the INDEPENDENTS. Thought the D’s and the R’s get all the attention. The reality is that INDEPENDENT VOTERS will determine the outcome of the election in the June Primary. The only way for them not to be a factor is to stay home and not vote. What is it that Thomas Jeffreson once said ” That for evil to Thriumph. Good men need only do nothing.” Well the blood bath that cities and schools are taking is the result of the carnage in Sacramento. Evil teaches that current batch of politicians in Sacramento to engage in futility and not care what happens to us littler independent business folks in the district.
RJ
05.14.2012
Thanks for the mention! Now in a way we are all Independents… free to choose who we want in our Primary. I’m a Democrat because it’s the party of the lower and middle class and these are the heart and soul of our consumer economy. Being a small businessperson I understand how to create jobs, facilitate negotiations and organize to succeed in an objective. I share a lot of ideas not just with Democrats but also Republicans and others. Including cutting the income tax for low/moderate wage earners. With the Open Primaries I welcome all of you to investigate your choices. With Independents its more complicated because without a party its very unclear what Independent candidates stand for. And I’ve seen independent candidates go independent just because they couldnt get any help from the party they were originally in. I know one candidate who is purely funded by the political elite so he’s very polarized in his positions. And, he only turned Independent shortly before the filing deadline. Before that he was a Democrat for years beforehand. Just something to think about as you go out there to vote. Just because someone is an independent doesnt mean they share your ideals but then they might. Investigate, learn the truth and vote independently for the candidate that most shares your values.