Want to Know Who Will Win in 2016? Don't Watch the Debates; Watch The World Series

Published: 29 Oct, 2015
2 min read

Almost everyone has heard of different 'predictors' of the debates and presidential races--from Weekly Reader to the Washington Redskins' last home game.

What many people may not know is there is one predictor that's worked with better than 90 percent accuracy since the Great Depression: the World Series.

If the winner's home state is a red state, the Republicans win. If the winner's state is blue, the Democrats win.

But if this is really the case, then the Republicans really have an uphill climb this year. New York is a solidly blue state, while Missouri is often considered a battleground swing state. Like many states, Missouri is solidly red in the rural areas, but equally blue in the five main metropolitan areas--and this has set up unique politics in Missouri, to the point of electing a

dead Democratic candidate to the U.S. Senate.

So with the K.C. Royals now leading the series 2-0, this axiom predictor might hold true again because the 2016 race is really anyone's to win.

With some of the most scientific models totally useless with the successes of Trump and Sanders, why not just bank on an 80-year-old predictor with a good track record and solid entertainment value?

One thing baseball has over the 2016 Republican debate: baseball teams know when to shave off the dead weight.

With a roster that could field an entire baseball team, plus bullpen, the Republican field is so large that candidates on the fringe have to do something extraordinary to be heard.

IVP Donate

And while these snippets make good headlines, they really don't do anything for the overall quality or content of the debate.

The debates aren't (or at least should be) like hockey, where teams keep on their rosters enforcers who act as crowd pleasers, only to get ejected at some point during the game.

But unfortunately, that's what it all seems to have become -- a game first, an election second.

So for me, I'm content just to watch the World Series. At least that way I know I'm only after the entertainment value, and maybe I'll gain some crystal ball insight into next November's election.

Photo Source: Icon Sportswire

You Might Also Like

New IVP 2026 California Governor Poll: What the Toplines Don’t Tell You
New IVP 2026 California Governor Poll: What the Toplines Don’t Tell You
Using verified California voter file data, IVP surveyed high-propensity voters from February 13 through 20. The poll tested first-choice ballot preferences alongside issue intensity on affordability and the cost of living, immigration enforcement, more choice reform, and more....
23 Feb, 2026
-
10 min read
81% of Americans Say Money Controls Politics – Can a Constitutional Amendment Fix It?
81% of Americans Say Money Controls Politics – Can a Constitutional Amendment Fix It?
Polls consistently show that nearly all Americans across the political spectrum agree that there is too much money in politics – whether from foreign sources, corporations, or so-called “dark money” groups. ...
23 Feb, 2026
-
13 min read
10 Reasons Why the Congressional Stock Trading Ban Will Never Pass
10 Reasons Why the Congressional Stock Trading Ban Will Never Pass
The overlap between committee assignments and stock ownership is not automatically illegal. Because the current legal framework permits this proximity as long as disclosure rules are followed, lawmakers are not operating under a system that forces change....
20 Feb, 2026
-
4 min read