There is no bigger race in San Diego than this one. On one side is the incumbent, progressive Democrat Terra Lawson-Remer, elected four years ago. On the other is moderate Republican Kevin Faulconer, the former popular mayor of San Diego who ran unsuccessfully for governor three years ago.

If Lawson-Remer holds onto her seat, Democrats will continue to enjoy a 3-2 majority on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors. If Faulconer wins, he will flip the balance of power, giving Republicans the majority. The stakes could not be any higher, which is why the Democratic Party and labor groups are going all in for the incumbent and the Republican Party, law enforcement, and business groups are heavily invested in Faulconer’s candidacy.

“It’s a unique election in that the challenger has higher name identification than the incumbent, according to internal polls,” Union-Tribune columnist Michael Smolens writes.

“Then there’s the partisan appeal coming from Democrat Lawson-Remer in a Democratic district, and the decidedly nonpartisan approach from Republican Faulconer, who leans into his moderate image. Faulconer’s past endorsement of former President Donald Trump will come up regularly. Meanwhile, critics of Lawson-Remer have been raising questions about the supervisor’s attendance record, something the Faulconer campaign likely will talk about.”

No Party Preference voters (NPPs) are expected to play a key role in determining who emerges victorious on Election Day due to their large numbers in the county – 24% of registered voters are NPPs compared to 28% Rs and 41% Ds. Can Lawson-Remer successfully move to the center or will the affable Faulconer own that space while also crossing over and picking up Democratic votes as he did in his two successful mayoral elections?

Lawson-Remer will try to paint him as an incompetent Trumper, but other than a brief run to the right during a governor’s race packed with Republicans desperately trying to stand out, Faulconer has always been a moderate, coastal Republican.

And, he’s done so largely without alienating many of those to the right of him ideologically.

He and his supporters are working to pin the homeless crisis on Lawson-Remer. Moving forward, you can expect them to make her attendance records a focal point of this campaign.

Lawson-Remer: The Incumbent

A former senior advisor in the Obama Administration, Lawson-Remer describes herself as an economist, attorney, grassroots organizer, and university educator “fighting for bold changes to the status quo in San Diego County.”

She lists her top issues in this order: Environment, Homelessness, Gun Safety, Reproductive Freedom, Healthcare, Cost of Housing, and Climate Crisis. She is endorsed by labor, environmental groups, the local newspaper, and others.

“As Mayor of San Diego, I have had the pleasure of working closely with Terra Lawson-Remer and can confidently say that with her vision, tenacity, and dedication, she is making a real difference as our County Supervisor,” said San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria. “I am proud to endorse her candidacy. With Terra on the Board of Supervisors, we can build a better, more equitable San Diego County for all.”

Lawson-Remer has not carved out an outsized public profile during her initial term in office, and she often takes partisan positions on issues.

On the campaign trail, she rarely misses an opportunity to attack Faulconer. “Let's talk about the infamous 101 Ash Street building,” she said in a recent campaign email. “Thanks to Kevin Faulconer's questionable decision-making, we're left with a vacant skyscraper that's about as useful as a snowplow in Encinitas!”

Faulconer: The Challenger

Faulconer is nearly as aggressive as his opponent on the campaign trail.

“It’s clear our current supervisor has failed us,” he says. “Look no further for evidence of this than the growing health and public safety crisis of homelessness. It's time for a leader who will confront this issue head-on, with compassion and practical solutions, as I have done many times before.”

Public safety organizations, including the San Diego Police Officers Association, have endorsed Faulconer. So too have numerous business groups, and he also enjoys some labor support, showing his crossover appeal. For Faulconer, there is no bigger issue than Homelessness. Following that, he lists Public Safety, Fiscal Responsibility, Innovative Government and Climate Action as his other key priorities.

As mayor, Faulconer’s track record is largely positive. His policy wins were often overshadowed by his approach to governing. He is not afraid to reach across the aisle. He is known as an affable and collaborative leader who looks to build consensus in what otherwise is often a polarizing political climate.

He likes to say there is no Republican or Democratic way to fill a pothole and that he would bring his same practical problem-solving approach to county government.

What’s at Stake?

The San Diego County District 3 Supervisor Race is hyper-critical for both political parties as well as business and labor interests as they seek to secure control of the County Board of Supervisors.

For Republicans and business groups, flipping D3 back to red would represent a significant victory in a region that has become increasingly Democratic. For Democrats and labor groups, retaining this seat is a must to maintain their 3-2 majority on the Board of Supervisors.

As the general election draws near, look for both Lawson-Remer and Faulconer to ramp up their attacks on each other to try and win over undecided voters. A recent poll shows Lawson-Remer is vulnerable. The candidate who can appeal to the most NPP voters is expected to win this tightly contested race that political insiders say will be an extremely close contest.