US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) continues to make waves in US politics. She is co-headlining rallies across the country with US Sen. Bernie Sanders as part of the "Fighting Oligarchy Tour," which has drawn large crowds even in GOP strongholds.
Now, FiveThirtyEight founder and veteran pollster Nate Silver has a bold prediction 3 years out from the next presidential contest. He believes AOC will lead the 2028 Democratic presidential primary,
All of this emphasizes a reality in US politics that many voters find exhausting: We never truly get out of the presidential campaign cycle anymore. Even with midterm elections coming up, potential 2028 candidates are already making a case for themselves.
Whether Voters Want It or Not, the 2028 Campaign Cycle Is Here
The "Fighting Oligarchy Tour" began on February 21, 2025, in Omaha, Nebraska, and has packed arenas and drawn tens of thousands of people to rallies in Los Angeles, Denver, Tucson, Salt Lake City -- even Nampa, Idaho.
For example, in Los Angeles, over 36,000 attendees gathered at Grand Park, making it the tour’s biggest event to date. However, not far behind is Denver, where a crowd of approximately 34,000 people filled Civic Center Park.
Los Angeles and Denver are considered extremely blue and progressive areas. However, the tour has also drawn crowds of 20,000 in Tucson, Arizona, and even 4,500 in Bakersfield, a notably conservative town in California's Central Valley.
The rally in Nampa, Idaho, drew a crowd of 12,400 people.
Each event has focused on mobilizing grassroots support against corporate influence and wealth inequality in American politics, pushing policies like Medicare for All, wealth taxation, and campaign finance reform.
It sounds like a resurgence of Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, which garnered interest not only among disaffected progressive Democrats, but independent voters drawn to the senator's particular brand of populism.
For example, exit polling shows Sanders won 71% of independents in the 2016 Michigan Democratic primary, contributing to his victory there. In fact, in states where independents could vote -- Sanders consistently did well.
It's worth noting that the "Fighting Oligarchy Tour" turnout in Los Angeles and Denver surpassed Sanders' largest presidential rally numbers -- and in a non-midterm or presidential election year.
The attention on this tour has already raised 2028 speculation, which is further compounded by recent statements from FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, who said he has AOC leading what will likely be a crowded Democratic field.
Technically it was Galen Druke who made her the first pick in what was dubbed as a "way-too-early 2028 Democratic primary draft," but Silver said she was also his first choice as well.
"There are a lot of points in her favor at this moment," Druke said. "In a Yale poll just out this week, AOC has the highest net favorability rating of any of the Democrats they asked about."
The Yale University poll had AOC's favorability rating at a positive 62% among Democrats. If she can tap into the same appeal with independent voters that Bernie had in 2016, this would give her an edge he didn't have.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris was not far behind at 59% favorability. She doesn't, however, have the clear advantage with independent voters and there is speculation she could run for governor in California.
"Equally important is [AOC] has fervent support," Druke added. "I think a lot of people are going to run in 2028 and it is going to be a contest of attention and getting those people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you."
He said he thinks of all the potential candidates being considered for 2028, AOC has the advantage. The media is obsessed with her just like they are obsessed with Trump (who has won two presidential elections).
it may be for different reasons but the candidate with the most spotlight on them tends to do better. "[The media] is going to follow her every move," Druke said.
Of course, this is entirely hypothetical. No one has officially announced for the 2028 presidential cycle in either party and the political and campaign landscape can shift dramatically in 3 years.
AOC and Trump: Names That Have Brand Recognition
Something that cannot be ignored is the AOC brand, which has fueled the media's obsession. They are three letters that are easily recognizable, and she has built on this brand from the start of her congressional tenure.
Whether this was intentional or not, it has happened.
In a significant way, this is something Trump and AOC have in common. Their names transcend party labels because they have built brands founded on another important variable: Perceived authenticity.
How many voters in 2016 said they liked Trump because he "told it how it is"? How many people said they liked his candor and how authentic his message came across?
How many voters like AOC because she has not shied away from speaking her mind -- even if it challenges her party?
For example, she was the most outspoken critic of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for not leveraging a government shutdown to protect entitlement programs that many Americans support.
She has also used a broad array of social media to reach people, especially young voters who tend to be more independent than older generations. This speaks to a populist appeal Trump and Sanders had in 2016 and could bolster AOC in a 2028 presidential primary.