logo

Many perspectives, 1 simple etiquette

10 States Where Party Planners Can Host (and Avoid) Representative Primaries

image
Created: 27 February, 2020
Updated: 15 August, 2022
2 min read

Illinois should host the first presidential primaries if the goal is to pick a state that most closely matches the demographics of the country.

And Vermont, the home state of Democratic front-runner Bernie Sanders, should have minimal influence over the process because its makeup is least similar to the entire United States — meaning the results from that state would be hardly at all predictive of the nation's views.

Those are among the conclusions out Thursday from the personal financial services website Wallet Hub, which has been churning out a series of reports this winter hoping to point political leaders toward helpful data for picking candidates in a more democratically sustainable way.

Once again this year, the Democratic Party has taken heat for its decision to hold its first two contests in a pair of states with abnormally high shares of white voters. But Wallet Hub expects the parties want to look beyond racial makeup if they're in search of places to hold potentially dispositive contests in 2024 and beyond.

And so they compiled and weighted an enormous amount of data about the demographics, economies, education levels, religious affiliations, and partisan and public policy attitudes of all 50 states.

Turns out, Iowa is an 89 percent match with the country — a good if not great No. 17 on the national list, highest among the four early voting states. But only seven states are less of a national mirror than New Hampshire, at 82 percent.

Nevada and South Carolina, which will vote on Saturday, are near the middle — but South Carolina, as its leaders have advertised for decades, does have the third highest level of political engagement among Africa-Americans by Wallet Hub's calculus.

Unsurprisingly, seven states that are expected to be contested by both parties in the November presidential election end up among the 10 that are the closest match for the country, according to what the company has labeled its 2020 Electorate Representation Index:

  1. Illinois (95 percent match)
  2. Florida (94 percent)
  3. Michigan (93 percent)
  4. Arizona (92 percent)
  5. Ohio (92 percent)
  6. Pennsylvania (92 percent)
  7. Virginia (92 percent)
  8. Delaware (92 percent)
  9. North Carolina (91 percent)
  10. Indiana (90 percent)

Also unsurprisingly, only two of the 10 states least representative of the entire United States (New Hampshire and Maine) are at all competitive in the general election. Six of the rest can reliably be colored bright red now on the Electoral College map:

  1. Wyoming (83 percent)
  2. Arkansas (83 percent)
  3. New Hampshire (82 percent)
  4. Maine (82 percent)
  5. Alabama (81 percent)
  6. Massachusetts (80 percent)
  7. West Virginia (80 percent)
  8. Utah (78 percent)
  9. Mississippi (78 percent)
  10. Vermont (only a 77 percent match)

Read more

fair maps
Gerrymandering Reform: Are We Asking the Wrong Question?
Photo Credit:  ...
01 March, 2024
-
7 min read
joined hands
10 Reasons Why Americans Are Not as Divided as You Think
Photo by on  Party leaders, politicians, and media pundits and talking heads would have US voters b...
28 February, 2024
-
7 min read
people
LetUsVote: New Campaign Launches to End Discrimination Against Independent Voters
Open Primaries, in partnership with Unite America, announced the launch of LetUsVote Wednesday, a nationwide initiative that aims to mobilize and empower independent voters, who make up the largest voting bloc in the US but are treated like second-class voters....
27 February, 2024
-
4 min read
voting
For Good or Bad, Primary Changes May Be Coming to Elections Near You
Photo Credit:  The last couple of years have seen an increase in states looking to change their prim...
26 February, 2024
-
4 min read
voted
The Primary Problem: Only 8% of Voters Elect 83% of Our Representatives
In his latest podcast, former Democratic presidential candidate and Forward Party Co-Founder Andrew ...
26 February, 2024
-
3 min read
Weber
Blame This One on Secretary of State Weber
Eight years ago, there was a competition still in play between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton wh...
26 February, 2024
-
4 min read