New Poll: Could Poizner Be First Independent Elected Statewide in California History?
Next week, IVN will launch its California-focused election coverage. In preparation, we conducted a survey of California voters on key races and issues to give our writers and readers a baseline look at where things stand to go into the final month of the election season.
Readers can also access information about the responses from various subgroups in the sample (known as crosstabs).
The California election gets our attention because California’s “top two” nonpartisan primary reform has produced some interesting matchups that could produce historic results.
For example, the top two contenders for the US Senate seat are both Democrats. How will Dianne Feinstein’s high profile involvement in the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings affect her challenge from the left by State Senate Leader Kevin de León? Where will independent and Republican voters vote?
The lieutenant governor's race also pits two Democrats against each other as does the superintendent of public instruction race, pitting a pro-charter school candidate against a state legislator with heavy union backing.
But, the big story could come from an independent candidate challenging a Democrat for insurance commissioner.
Steve Poizner previously advocated for the office to be nonpartisan when he served as commissioner from 2007-2011. After returning to business for the past eight years, he is back in 2018 running as an independent and faces State Senator Ricardo Lara. Poizner would be the first “NPP” (no party preference) candidate to win statewide office in California’s history.
IVN will cover these races as well as the most contentious initiatives in which independent-minded voters will decide the outcome.
About the Survey: Methodology
The survey represents an unbiased cross-section of registered voters in the State of California.
IVC Media, our digital pollster, used a proprietary technique to target only registered voters on Facebook and connect their party registration to their survey choices. Only those voters who were targeted were included in the results. To further ensure accuracy, a sample of the respondents were then cross-referenced with the voter file.
The poll was completed by more than 4,500 people and has a margin of error of +/- 4%. The results include 1,600 responses, randomly selected and weighted by expected voter turnout based on age, gender, and voter registration.
Below are some brief instructions for using the interactive poll:
- You can flip through the survey questions with the toggle arrows on the bottom-left of the embedded survey below. Or, if you open the survey in a new window, the questions can be toggled at the top-left.
- Once a segment has been chosen, the chart on the left will update with the cross-tabulated results. The "unfiltered" chart on the right will not have the filter applied for comparison.
- Selecting multiple filters applies all the filters chosen.