Independent Muscle: The Three June 5th Election Predictions You Won't Believe

Author: Jeff Powers
Created: 01 June, 2018
Updated: 21 November, 2022
5 min read

There is a significant amount of worry in left-leaning circles around the California nonpartisan primary on June 5.

In moving the state of California to an even deeper shade of blue, the Sanctuary State policy, the gas tax, the ballooning budget of the bullet train and more, California Democrats have positioned themselves, unnecessarily some say, into a rather precarious position, and have given the state's GOP some much needed oxygen and political ammo heading into the June 5th Primary.

Mark Cuban's 2017 analogy about NFL owners plays equally well in 2018 to California Democrats: "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. And they're getting hoggy."

The establishment has also made curious campaign decisions towards independents, an issue well chronicled on IVN. The decision to not communicate directly to NPP or independent voters is an opportunity lost, as for the first time, GOP registration has fallen behind independent voters statewide.

IVN Podcast: CA June 5th Primary Election Special

With that as a backdrop, former CA Senator Steve Peace,  Sacramento political strategist Cadee Condit and political consultant, author and IVN contributor T.J. O'Hara, chatted about the upcoming June 5th Primary election. Each shared their thoughts on the Governor's race, arguably the most important measure on the ballot in November, Data Privacy, and the surprises in store for Tuesday!

Nonpartisan Top-Two System

Steve Peace: "The system is a voter centric system, the voters win 100% of the time. The problem that the parties are having is they are accustomed to manipulating outcomes, and it's harder, contrary to the current hair-on-fire narrative, to manipulate the nonpartisan top-two open primary."

Who Moves On In Governor's Race?

Cadee Condit: "In Sacramento, everyone is hyper-focused on the Gubernatorial race. I think that the Latino vote is crucial on Tuesday and I think that's really going to make a big difference, particularly for the Villaraigosa campaign. Politicos are also very surprised with the effectiveness of the Travis Allen campaign, he's doing better than everyone expected."

T.J. O'Hara: "I think the June election comes down to three candidates, Gavin Newsom, Antonio Villaraigosa and John Cox. It's a more relevant race for the Republicans, because if they get locked out of the Governor's race it could depress voter turnout this fall. On the assumption that it ends up Newsom/Cox, it will be interesting to see the fallout as Newsom has been trying to take a left approach to criticize Cox and Allen, in effect to raise their visibility to a point where Cox becomes the opponent because Newsom's camp likes their chances against Cox."

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The California Consumer Privacy Act 

Steve Peace: "The conversation should start where if my data is handled in such a way that it is compromised and I'm damaged today, there's no consequence, it's almost impossible for consumers to be compensated.  This new Privacy Act is a tremendous positive, honest way to engage the conversation for the first time in more than 20 years and how the industry responds to this is going to be interesting because they face a very government centric technology dictating paradigm in Europe, and a very different one here in the states, whether we end with a blended solution, so as with all these cases there's always shortcomings and positive things with different approaches, but I'm certainly encouraged by the privacy initiative that's being brought before the voters cause at a minimum it's going to force a public conversation that is long overdue. "

T.J. O'Hara: "From a constitutional standpoint I'm a big fan of the 4th amendment so I favor privacy, I'm also a fan of Thomas Jefferson fondness for an occasional amendment and I think technology has changed enough that I think perhaps some clarity should be brought to it in the form of potentially an amendment down the road. From a pragmatic standpoint back in 2012 one of the things that I argued for was allowing us to default to private sector solutions as opposed to automatically defaulting to political solutions, because political solutions have never been proficient to solving the problem. I think there is a moral or ethical responsibility inherent in the industry that's been abused, and if you watched the Zuckerberg hearings in Washington, the questions lawmakers asked simply weren't relevant. So I don't think a political solution is the answer."

Surprises & Predictions For June 5th

Steve Peace: "We are getting brand new numbers that the Villaraigosa campaign effort to target independent voters in the latino and asian communities could pay huge dividends on election day. We are seeing a lot of hand wringing from the Democratic side because they made all the decisions back in February when they thought they were going to have a 'blue wave' and they lurched way left and they are now in trouble in closed primary states. Democrats are in a panic because they misjudged the electorate months ago. Had the Democrats not passed the Sanctuary State bill, where do you think the Cox campaign would be today?"

Cadee Condit: "Steve Poizner is a big deal. Everyone is really excited about the first Constitutional independent running in California. So that's a big one everyone is watching and I predict he is going to do very well."

T.J. O'Hara: "Is there going to be a Trump effect and a reduction in voter apathy? We had a record low turnout in 2014 primary and I think the Trump effect will help mobilize the Democrats and they will certainly get out and vote. I think on the Republican side the Trump effect brings an empowerment and we will see that with the statewide races."

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