New Evidence Shows Johnson Likely Closer to 15% Than CPD Polls Suggest

image
Published: 29 Sep, 2016
Updated: 21 Nov, 2022
1 min read

There’s a big problem with the phone polls carried out by the major networks: They only represent the one percent of American voters who are willing to answer an unknown number.

To combat this problem, some of the polls have started to do online polling. For example, the recent PPP poll, described by respected “stats guru” Nate Silver as “scientific,” runs 20% of its sample through an online panel. In an email, PPP staff disclosed that this panel is Qualtrics, which is used by social scientists .

What’s startling is how this "scientific" poll shows much higher support for Johnson among the online respondents than among the phone respondents (12% vs. 5%). And given how biased some of the network phone polls are against Johnson's core base (independents and Millennials), it is likely that, in reality, support for his candidacy is much higher than these polls suggest.

Screen Shot 2016-09-29 at 3.59.40 PM

As previously reported on IVN, Fox News -- one of the network polls used to determine debate inclusion by the Commission on Presidential Debates -- doesn't even come close to properly sampling independents. While most polls sample independents between 32 and 38 percent, Fox News samples them at 17 percent.

Another network poll used by the debate commission, the CNN/ORC poll, doesn't even sample Millennials at all. And, breaking all scientific standards of responsiveness to research inquiries, CNN Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta has failed to respond to multiple emails requesting clarification or comment.

Is Johnson leading with these demographics? Yes he is. So it is not a stretch to say support for his campaign is greater than the media reports; especially, as distrust and dissatisfaction with the major party candidates remain at historic highs.

The phone polls fail to represent the American electorate. Open the debates.

Photo Credit: Christopher  Halloran / shutterstock.com

IVP Donate

Latest articles

Jail cell.
Nixon Admitted Weed Wasn’t Dangerous, But Killed It to Crush Political Dissent
This seven-part series chronicles the milestones, backlash, and unintended consequences that have shaped the war on cannabis from the 1960s to the present day....
09 Jul, 2025
-
2 min read
Elon Musk in front of the US Capitol Building.
7 Things Elon Musk Needs to Do If the America Party Wants to Be More Than a Meme
The World’s Richest Man Will Have to Overcome America’s Toughest Political Obstacles — Here’s What It Will Take to Make His America Party Thrive...
08 Jul, 2025
-
4 min read
Oklahoma State Capitol Building.
Lawsuit Slams Oklahoma Law as ‘Unconstitutional Sabotage’ of Open Primaries
Two Oklahoma veterans – one a pediatrician, the other a U.S. Coast Guard commander – have filed a legal challenge to SB 1027 in Oklahoma, a law they say unconstitutionally targets their statewide citizen initiative to implement open primaries, State Question 836 (SQ 836)....
08 Jul, 2025
-
5 min read