logo

New Evidence Shows Johnson Likely Closer to 15% Than CPD Polls Suggest

image
Created: 29 September, 2016
Updated: 21 November, 2022
1 min read

There’s a big problem with the phone polls carried out by the major networks: They only represent the one percent of American voters who are willing to answer an unknown number.

To combat this problem, some of the polls have started to do online polling. For example, the recent PPP poll, described by respected “stats guru” Nate Silver as “scientific,” runs 20% of its sample through an online panel. In an email, PPP staff disclosed that this panel is Qualtrics, which is used by social scientists .

What’s startling is how this "scientific" poll shows much higher support for Johnson among the online respondents than among the phone respondents (12% vs. 5%). And given how biased some of the network phone polls are against Johnson's core base (independents and Millennials), it is likely that, in reality, support for his candidacy is much higher than these polls suggest.

Screen Shot 2016-09-29 at 3.59.40 PM

As previously reported on IVN, Fox News -- one of the network polls used to determine debate inclusion by the Commission on Presidential Debates -- doesn't even come close to properly sampling independents. While most polls sample independents between 32 and 38 percent, Fox News samples them at 17 percent.

Another network poll used by the debate commission, the CNN/ORC poll, doesn't even sample Millennials at all. And, breaking all scientific standards of responsiveness to research inquiries, CNN Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta has failed to respond to multiple emails requesting clarification or comment.

Is Johnson leading with these demographics? Yes he is. So it is not a stretch to say support for his campaign is greater than the media reports; especially, as distrust and dissatisfaction with the major party candidates remain at historic highs.

The phone polls fail to represent the American electorate. Open the debates.

Photo Credit: Christopher  Halloran / shutterstock.com

IVP Existence Banner

Latest articles

US Supreme Court
Should Gifts to Supreme Court Justices Raise Concerns?
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas came under intense scrutiny last year for failing to disclose lavish gifts from real estate mogul Harlan Crow. Among the questions raised by ProPublica’s reporting on the Justice and the billionaire was whether Thomas had violated disclosure requirements....
24 July, 2024
-
6 min read
Student
How to Unite America: Offering Our Youth a Common Experience
America is more divided today than it has been at any time in the last fifty years. The divisions in public life run so deep that they can often seem insurmountable....
24 July, 2024
-
5 min read
Congress
Can A Special Forces Veteran Win as an Independent in North Carolina?
In his latest podcast, former presidential candidate and Forward Party Co-Founder Andrew Yang sat down with Shelane Etchison, a Special Forces veteran running for Congress in North Carolina....
22 July, 2024
-
1 min read