New Evidence Shows Johnson Likely Closer to 15% Than CPD Polls Suggest

Created: 29 September, 2016
Updated: 21 November, 2022
1 min read

There’s a big problem with the phone polls carried out by the major networks: They only represent the one percent of American voters who are willing to answer an unknown number.

To combat this problem, some of the polls have started to do online polling. For example, the recent PPP poll, described by respected “stats guru” Nate Silver as “scientific,” runs 20% of its sample through an online panel. In an email, PPP staff disclosed that this panel is Qualtrics, which is used by social scientists .

What’s startling is how this "scientific" poll shows much higher support for Johnson among the online respondents than among the phone respondents (12% vs. 5%). And given how biased some of the network phone polls are against Johnson's core base (independents and Millennials), it is likely that, in reality, support for his candidacy is much higher than these polls suggest.

Screen Shot 2016-09-29 at 3.59.40 PM

As previously reported on IVN, Fox News -- one of the network polls used to determine debate inclusion by the Commission on Presidential Debates -- doesn't even come close to properly sampling independents. While most polls sample independents between 32 and 38 percent, Fox News samples them at 17 percent.

Another network poll used by the debate commission, the CNN/ORC poll, doesn't even sample Millennials at all. And, breaking all scientific standards of responsiveness to research inquiries, CNN Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta has failed to respond to multiple emails requesting clarification or comment.

Is Johnson leading with these demographics? Yes he is. So it is not a stretch to say support for his campaign is greater than the media reports; especially, as distrust and dissatisfaction with the major party candidates remain at historic highs.

The phone polls fail to represent the American electorate. Open the debates.

Photo Credit: Christopher  Halloran / shutterstock.com

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