Trump Has Double Digit Lead among Independents; DNC in Damage Control

image
Marisa GomezMarisa Gomez
Published: 26 Jul, 2016
2 min read

Donald Trump can only be all smiles after the Republican National Convention. Latest polls of the presidential race -- whether looking at a 4-way race or 2-person race -- show Trump either winning or in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton.

It's often called the "convention bump," and Trump has received a huge bump as of late. According to various polls, Trump's post-convention lead among independent voters is as high as 16 percentage points.

And Trump is getting support from some surprising sources. According to IVN independent author Griffin Edwards, some disillusioned Sanders supporters are choosing Trump over Hillary Clinton, despite Sanders insisting that his supporters should vote for Clinton.

These supporters along with broad support from other independent voters are likely the powerhouse behind Trump's lead, which has only grown while Clinton's numbers have remained stagnate and have even dropped.

CNN’s 4-way poll between Trump, Clinton, Johnson, and Stein leaves Clinton 5 points behind Trump. Polling comparing Trump and Clinton by themselves shows a 3-point advantage for Trump.

A poll from the week before the convention showed Clinton with a 7-point lead.

Nate Silver, founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, believes that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would be victorious. On July 22, Silver tweeted, “Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.”

RealClear Politics averaged eight of the nation’s largest polls and placed Trump at a 0.9% advantage in a two-person race. Clinton has an average 0.2% lead in a 4-way race, both showing a statistical tie at the moment between the candidates.

The "convention bump" may help the Democrats at the end of the week, but only time will tell. The DNC started off rocky with the developing email scandal that led to party chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to resign..

IVP Donate

Right now, the DNC is in damage-control mode and the RNC is looking forward to November. While the Trump campaign did some damage control of its own after Melania Trump plagiarized parts of Michelle Obama’s 2008 DNC speech, none of that drama compares to the removal of DNC leadership days before the convention opened.

Silver may be right; voters need to be aware of the closeness of this election. Trump’s lead this week is monumental for his campaign, but anything can happen in the upcoming months that could tip the scales in either candidate’s favor.

History will be made whichever way the scale leans. The reality is that predictions concerning the illegitimacy of Trump’s campaign are false. Trump could win this and voters should prepare for that.

Photo Credit: lev radin / Shutterstock.com

You Might Also Like

National Reform Organizations Condemn Texas and California Over Gerrymandering
National Reform Organizations Condemn Texas and California Over Gerrymandering
The United States has passed the point of no return in the unprecedented mid-cycle redistricting fight between Texas and California, which threatens to expand to other states like Republican-controlled Florida and Democratic-controlled New York....
25 Aug, 2025
-
6 min read
Gerrymandering Wars Escalate Beyond Texas and California: A National Race to the Bottom?
Gerrymandering Wars Escalate Beyond Texas and California: A National Race to the Bottom?
Republicans currently hold a narrow 219 to 212 edge over Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with four vacancies: three from Democratic members who have died and one from a Republican who has resigned. This is the smallest House majority held by either party in nearly a century. The razor-thin margin means the stakes in the 2026 midterms could not be higher. With so few competitive seats left nationwide, both parties are turning to mid-decade redistricting as a way to secure advantages....
27 Aug, 2025
-
10 min read
Hand in ballot that says independent on it.
Why 1.2 Million California Independents Are The Biggest Wild Card in American Politics Today
The fate of Proposition 50, California’s proposed redistricting measure, may come down to voters who have declined to join one of the two major political parties....
22 Aug, 2025
-
5 min read