I’ll admit it, I’m bored with the Democratic debates. So bored, in fact, that I’ve been waiting until they are over to read the transcripts, something that can be done in one-tenth the time and without looking at the candidates.
I’m tired of watching Bernie Sanders looking like he’s beating on his favorite bongo drum set. I’m tired of watching Hillary Clinton talking with her hands and over-emphasizing her nods of approval/disapproval. Yet what I am most tired of is the incredible lack of common ground these two candidates want to actually debate.
Americans seem to be in more or less the same boat. So far this cycle, three of the Democratic debates have come in as the ‘least viewed’ in debate history. The ratings for the Feb 11 debate aren’t out, but with more of the same, it’s likely to be another disappointing rating.
Part of the dwindling interested is the small field, coupled with the fact that there seems to be very, very few undecided Democrats this cycle. They are either ‘full Bern,’ or ‘Fighting for You,” but nothing really in between — the voters’ minds are made up.
And at the same time, there’s a certain amount of dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party over superdelegates — that the race is almost certainly going to be decided by party cronies, not the people.
My personal prediction for the Democratic primary: Bernie Sanders will sweep the Democratic strongholds of the NE, take most if not all of the West Coast, and possibly Florida. Bernie could also have a strong showing in the northern Rockies states, but they don’t have the population centers to drive delegate counts.
Hillary Clinton will sweep the South. The adage that it takes a southerner to win the White House still stands–even one expatriated to New York. She will sweep the desert Southwest, and really battle it out in California (that one’s a toss-up, but I’ll give it to Bernie for now). That leaves the Rust Belt, and while Bernie’s economic ideals for improving the economy ‘might’ tempt them, this is still the area of the Reagan Democrats. Too far to the left is likely to scare them off.
Tallying all this up, Bernie will probably win the majority of delegates, while Hillary will win the primary on superdelegates.
Hillary’s had a big lead in superdelegates before and imploded to Obama’s insurgency campaign in 2008. It could happen again, but Bernie will have to force it.
While Bernie has rock star appeal, it is just too unlikely for him to win the South or Rust Belt–any of it. His message is resonating with the younger crowd, especially college-aged voters and college graduates — two things not ‘as’ common in these areas.
No matter what Bernie does, if he can’t win over the superdelgates, he’s not going to win.
And this is the real reason for the dwindling interest in the Democratic debates–too many people, like me, have already decided who is going to win, and it reeks of party cronyism.
