Crowded GOP Establishment Field Can't Find Opening with Primary Voters

image
Author: James Ryan
Published: 08 Jan, 2016
Updated: 21 Nov, 2022
2 min read

2016 presidential candidates seeking support from the Republican establishment previously faced only one issue, a crowded field vying for the same group of donors and supporters. Now they face two: a crowded field and a disapproving primary base.

According to a December 2015 NBC/WSJ poll of New Hampshire Republican primary voters, establishment candidates have, for the most part, been viewed unfavorably:

  • 64% said they could see themselves supporting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, while 29% could not (+35)
  • 43% said they could see themselves supporting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, while 50% could not (-7)
  • 45% said they could see themselves supporting former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, while 53% could not (-8)
  • 22% said they could see themselves supporting Ohio Gov. John Kasich, while 53% could not (-31)

These numbers may be indicative of the flaws primary voters see in the candidates. Christie has raised relatively little (amounting to $1.4 million in the bank as of September's filing period), expanded Medicaid in New Jersey, and continues to be hounded by the hug he shared with President Barack Obama while dealing with the impact of Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Kasich, too, has little cash on hand ($2.7 million) and expanded Medicaid in Ohio.  Bush, despite having a vast campaign war chest and spending nearly $23 million on TV ads in New Hampshire, continues to suffer from single digits in the polls.

At this point in the primary season, with the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries less than a month away, these numbers may very well translate out to a victory for Senator Rubio, for whom a projected strong showing in the first two primary states would swing the bulk of establishment support in his favor.

With this in mind, Rubio would do well to ramp up his campaign presence in Iowa and New Hampshire, both of which had been widely ignored by the Rubio camp until just recently.

Photo Credit: Rich Koele / Shutterstock.com

Latest articles

Crowd in Time Square.
NYC Exit Survey: 96% of Voters Understood Their Ranked Choice Ballots
An exit poll conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of the nonprofit better elections group FairVote finds that ranked choice voting (RCV) continues to be supported by a vast majority of voters who find it simple, fair, and easy to use. The findings come in the wake of the city’s third use of RCV in its June 2025 primary elections....
01 Jul, 2025
-
6 min read
A man filling out his election ballot.
Oregon Activist Sues over Closed Primaries: 'I Shouldn't Have to Join a Party to Have a Voice'
A new lawsuit filed in Oregon challenges the constitutionality of the state’s closed primary system, which denies the state’s largest registered voting bloc – independent voters – access to taxpayer-funded primary elections. The suit alleges Oregon is denying the voters equal voting rights...
01 Jul, 2025
-
3 min read
Supreme Court building.
Supreme Court Sides with Federal Corrections Officers in Lawsuit Over Prison Incident
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled June 30 that federal prison officers and officials cannot be sued by an inmate who accused them of excessive force during a 2021 incident, delivering a victory for federal corrections personnel concerned about rising legal exposure for doing their jobs....
01 Jul, 2025
-
3 min read