North Carolina Early Voting Shows Democratic Lead

image
Published: 02 Nov, 2012
Updated: 21 Nov, 2022
2 min read

North Carolina Early Voting

With over 2 million ballots cast, North Carolina early voting shows Democrats leading Republicans 48 percent to 32 percent. The growing number of independent voters and 2008 trends, however, indicate that the race for the battleground state is still too close to call.

In 2008, Obama won North Carolina by 14,000 votes. That's less than half a percentage point. In order for Obama to repeat his win in North Carolina, he would have to maintain similar levels of early voting succes. While the Democratic lead in North Carolina early voting this year indicates some success, it may not be enough to win him the battleground state. In 2008, his early voting record showed a stronger lead, with early voters favoring him 51 percent to 30 percent. Because he won the state by such a small margin, any decrease in 2012 could prevent him from winning the 15 electoral votes.

Furthermore, independent voters in the state have seen the largest increase since 2008, rising from 1.4 to 1.7 million voters. Republicans saw an increase of around 44,000 in registration while voters registering Democratic dropped around 7,500 voters. North Carolina voters registered Democratic still outnumber Republicans and independents, but not by much.The state is comprised of 2.8 million Democrats, 2 million Republicans, and around 1.7 million unaffiliated voters.

“We’re not a two-party state,” says Bob Hall, director of the Durham-based nonpartisan advocacy group called Democracy North Carolina. “We’re a state where the two parties have to continually sell themselves to the voters.”

When it comes to presidential picks, North Carolina polls show independent voters favor Romney, who now holds a commanding double digit lead among non-leaning independent voters.

Statewide polls similarly show Romney in the lead, with Real Clear Politics averaging Romney at 49.8% of the likely vote and Obama at 46. This 3.8% lead could be enough to tip the state in favor of Romney, an essential win in his path to 270.

Overall, PollTracker Average shows voters Romney maintains his lead, despite North Carolina early voting numbers.

*Information regarding North Carolina voter registration in 2008 versus 2012 has been modified after errors drawn to my attention from a reader.  

IVP Donate

Latest articles

Marijuana plant.
Why the War on Cannabis Refuses to Die: How Boomers and the Yippies Made Weed Political
For much of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, American physicians freely prescribed cannabis to treat a wide range of ailments. But by the mid-twentieth century, federal officials were laying the groundwork for a sweeping criminal crackdown. Cannabis would ultimately be classified as a Schedule I substance, placed alongside heroin and LSD, and transformed into a political weapon that shaped American policy for the next six decades....
30 Jun, 2025
-
2 min read
Donald Trump standing behind presidential podium and in front of two American flags.
Has Trump Made His Case for the Nobel Peace Prize?
A news item in recent days that was overshadowed in the media by SCOTUS and the One Big Beautiful Budget Bill was a US-brokered peace agreement that was signed between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – which if it holds will end a conflict between the two countries that has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands of people....
30 Jun, 2025
-
7 min read
Picture of skyscraper in New York behind a bridge.
Knives Come Out Against Reform at NYC CRC Hearing as Independents Rise
Last week in Staten Island, the NYC Charter Revision Commission held its next-to-last public hearing. As Commissioner Diane Savino commented, addressing NYC's closed primary system “is the single biggest issue we’ve heard this year.”...
30 Jun, 2025
-
3 min read