#Twindex Missing Third Party Candidates

image
Published: 03 Aug, 2012
2 min read

Twitter is now tracking your tweets to compile daily ratings on which candidate has the most user sentiments. Launched Wednesday, the social site will be updating their Twitter Political Index, or Twindex, everyday at 8pm, comparing the top two candidates with most user sentiments. The two most popular candidates being mentioned on Twitter are (unsurprisingly) Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The Twitter political index, however, does not highlight any of the 6+ popular running third party candidates such as Jill Stein or Gary Johnson.

Twitter’s new political stats endeavor raises the discussion of the validity and value that an Index like this represents.

Regarding its value- the poll may actually have strong correlation to a more traditional public opinion research group, Gallup, which signifies the new ability to capture a tough thing: "the nuances of public opinion".

When asking questions regarding validity, the idea of what the goal of the index is trying to represent is crucial. The L.A. Times addresses this:

Twitter is far from representative of the electoral public though, with a recent Pew survey finding that 15% of online adults are on Twitter, with 8% using it daily. And adoption rates of the social network expectedly skew toward the young, with 26% of 18-29-year-olds tweeting, with just 14% of 30-49-year-olds and 9% of 50-64-year-olds joining them.

And because I'm not skilled with algorithms or the entire discipline of mathematics for that matter, I am forced to put some trust in the partnership of Twitter and other notable research based organizations. The partnership comprises of Twitter, Topsy, USA Today, The Mellman Group and North Star Opinion Research. Topsy, in specific, is responsible for analyzing the 400 million tweets ranking them from 1 (the most negative) to 100 (the most positive).

On the site's blog, it explains:

Each day, the Index evaluates and weighs the sentiment of Tweets mentioning Obama or Romney relative to the more than 400 million Tweets sent on all other topics. For example, a score of 73 for a candidate indicates that Tweets containing their name or account name are on average more positive than 73 percent of all Tweets.

A key part is the focus on Obama and Romney's gaining stats, and the subsequent exclusion of the other very present third party presidential candidates. This limits Twindex to essentially a poll on the two party system, which assuredly can't accurately depict the sentiments of all Twitter users, much less the United States.

IVP Donate

Although I am always hesitant of the actual validity in statistics, it's nevertheless interesting to see partnerships forming between traditional research based orgs and social media groups to find common ground and utilize their resources to gauge public interest and opinion.

Do you think Twitter polling is a good indicator of election results?

You Might Also Like

Caution tape with US Capitol building in the background.
Did the Republicans or Democrats Start the Gerrymandering Fight?
The 2026 midterm election cycle is quickly approaching. However, there is a lingering question mark over what congressional maps will look like when voters start to cast their ballots, especially as Republicans and Democrats fight to obtain any electoral advantage possible. ...
11 Nov, 2025
-
8 min read
Utah state capitol.
Utah Judge Delivers a Major Blow to Gerrymandering
A Utah state judge has struck down the congressional map drawn by Republican lawmakers, ruling that it violates the state’s voter-approved ban on partisan gerrymandering and ordering new district lines for the 2026 elections....
11 Nov, 2025
-
2 min read
bucking party on gerrymandering
5 Politicians Bucking Their Party on Gerrymandering
Across the country, both parties are weighing whether to redraw congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Texas, California, Missouri, North Carolina, Utah, Indiana, Colorado, Illinois, and Virginia are all in various stages of the action. Here are five politicians who have declined to support redistricting efforts promoted by their own parties....
31 Oct, 2025
-
4 min read