logo

Arizona's Independent Surge

image
Author: Chris Hinyub
Created: 27 April, 2012
Updated: 13 October, 2022
1 min read

arizona_state_flag

 

Arizona has declared its independence from two-party politics as a full third of the state's electorate is now “unaffiliated” with either Republican or Democratic parties. Independents now outnumber Democrats and are closing in on Republicans in the Grand Canyon state.

While both major parties in Arizona have lost membership over the past 4 years, the Independent bloc grew by roughly a quarter million voters. Since President Obama's election, the number of Arizonans who've registered Independent surged by 23 percent.

For a quick illustration of how this trend might influence the presidential race, consider statewide exit polling data from 2008's general election. Back then, 39% of voters called themselves Republicans, 32% Democrats and 30% were self-identified Independents. Republican John McCain did end up winning his home state with 54 percent of ballots cast, but the 200,000 votes which carried the Senator came mainly from his outreach to unaffiliated voters. Note: 222,056 new Independents have registered to vote in the state since that time. The evolved voter-scape puts Arizona squarely in toss-up territory.

I'm not too handy with infographics (can you tell?), but the following table deserves some creative treatment if its not already eye-opening.

*All voter registration data was gleaned from the Arizona Secretary of State and is available online here. 2012 numbers are accurate as of April 6.

Year

IVP Existence Banner

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

INDEPENDENTS

2008

1,161,982

1,262,871

988,185

2010

IVP Existence Banner

1,121,396

1,230,654

1,116,384

2012

1,091,188

1,237,756

1,210,241

'12-'08 Difference

IVP Existence Banner

-70,794

-25,115

222,056

% Change

-6.1%

-2.0%

+22.5%

 

IVP Existence Banner

One thing is clear: Independents will decide Arizona's choice for president this November.

Latest articles

Kennedy
DNC Loses Its First Attempt to Kick RFK JR Off the Ballot
Independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr will officially appear on the Hawaii ballot after a ruling Friday blocked an effort by the Democratic Party to disqualify him from ballot access. It marks the first loss by the DNC in its legal strategy to limit voters' choices on the 2024 presidential ballot....
22 April, 2024
-
3 min read
Asa Hutchinson
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson Declares His Support for Ranked Choice Voting
In a recent episode of The Purple Principle, a podcast that examines democracy and polarization from a nonpartisan lens, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson said that while he was skeptical of ranked choice voting at first, he now sees it as a meaningful solution to elect candidates with the broadest appeal....
19 April, 2024
-
2 min read
electoral college
How Maine Started a Voter Revolution, And Is Now Going Backwards
Election reformers have looked to Maine for several years now as a pioneer in adopting policy solutions that put voters first in elections. Maine voters have taken it upon themselves to enact better elections – and have won major victories....
17 April, 2024
-
7 min read