Arizona's Independent Surge

image
Author: Chris Hinyub
Published: 27 Apr, 2012
Updated: 13 Oct, 2022
1 min read

arizona_state_flag

 

Arizona has declared its independence from two-party politics as a full third of the state's electorate is now “unaffiliated” with either Republican or Democratic parties. Independents now outnumber Democrats and are closing in on Republicans in the Grand Canyon state.

While both major parties in Arizona have lost membership over the past 4 years, the Independent bloc grew by roughly a quarter million voters. Since President Obama's election, the number of Arizonans who've registered Independent surged by 23 percent.

For a quick illustration of how this trend might influence the presidential race, consider statewide exit polling data from 2008's general election. Back then, 39% of voters called themselves Republicans, 32% Democrats and 30% were self-identified Independents. Republican John McCain did end up winning his home state with 54 percent of ballots cast, but the 200,000 votes which carried the Senator came mainly from his outreach to unaffiliated voters. Note: 222,056 new Independents have registered to vote in the state since that time. The evolved voter-scape puts Arizona squarely in toss-up territory.

I'm not too handy with infographics (can you tell?), but the following table deserves some creative treatment if its not already eye-opening.

*All voter registration data was gleaned from the Arizona Secretary of State and is available online here. 2012 numbers are accurate as of April 6.

Year

IVP Donate

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

INDEPENDENTS

2008

1,161,982

1,262,871

988,185

2010

Let Us Vote : Sign Now!

1,121,396

1,230,654

1,116,384

2012

1,091,188

1,237,756

1,210,241

'12-'08 Difference

More Choice for San Diego

-70,794

-25,115

222,056

% Change

-6.1%

-2.0%

+22.5%

 

IVP Donate

One thing is clear: Independents will decide Arizona's choice for president this November.

Latest articles

Trump Trush Social Post on Colbert
Will Politics Kill Late Night TV?
Stephen Colbert’s Late Show is ending after nearly a decade at the top of the ratings. CBS insists t...
18 Jul, 2025
-
3 min read
Ronald Reagan
Just Say No: The Political Hit Job That Killed Cannabis
As cannabis use became more common in the late 1970s, the backlash grew even stronger. A political and religious conservative resurgence was underway after years of liberal ascendancy. That wave would soon bring former California Governor Ronald Reagan to the White House....
18 Jul, 2025
-
8 min read
Political cartoon of a person representing partisanship, unions, the Democratic Party, and Special Interests taking a bite out of New York.
Mamdani, Lander, and Other Partisan Extremists Just Took a Bite Out of NYC’s Democracy
The partisans, unions, and party bosses have won again. Independents, veterans, working people, young people and democracy have lost again. ...
18 Jul, 2025
-
2 min read