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# Princeton Study: Future Presidential Elections More Likely to Look Like 2016
- URL: https://ivn.us/new-study-future-presidential-elections-likely-look-like-2016/
- Published: 2017-10-09T13:55:26.000Z
- Updated: 2026-06-22T19:59:56.000Z
- Author: Richard Winger
- Tags: News

Data scientists Vinad Bakthavachalam and Jake Fuentes have published [this study](http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/bakthavachalam%5Ffuentes17%5FMEVC%5Fpopular-electoral-split-model-8oct2017.pdf?ref=ivn.us) of the Electoral College. They estimate that in future U.S. presidential elections in which the popular vote margin between the two leading candidates is 3% or less, "over 30% of elections in the next century are likely to select a President against the will of the majority of voters.

Thanks to Justin Levitt for the link.

**Read the full study:**

*Editor's note: This update [originally published](http://ballot-access.org/2017/10/08/new-study-says-future-presidential-elections-are-more-likely-to-result-in-a-split-between-popular-vote-winner-and-electoral-college-winner/?ref=ivn.us) on Ballot Access News and has been republished with permission from the author.*

*Photo Credit: [txking](https://www.shutterstock.com/g/txking?ref=ivn.us) / [shutterstock.com](https://www.shutterstock.com/?ref=ivn.us)*