> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://ivn.us/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Kern County's 50,000 Independent Voters Will Decide Who Goes to Sacramento - URL: https://ivn.us/kern-countys-50-000-independent-voters-will-decide-who-goes-to-sacramento/ - Published: 2026-10-12T22:43:06.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-12T22:53:17.000Z - Description: In Kern County's Assembly District 35, nearly one in four voters are registered with no party preference, making independents the likely kingmakers in a closely competitive race between Democrat Andrae Gonzales and Republican Saul Ayon. - Author: Cara Brown McCormick - Tags: California 2026, Campaigns, California **BAKERSFIELD** – In the farm towns and east-side neighborhoods of California's 35th Assembly District, the most powerful voters this November may be the ones who refuse to pick a party. More than 50,000 voters here are registered with No Party Preference. That's nearly one in four, and almost as many as the district's registered Republicans. When the ballots are counted on November 3, they will likely decide whether Democrat [Andrae Gonzales](https://www.andraegonzales.com/?ref=ivn.us), a Bakersfield city councilmember, or Republican [Saul Ayon](http://www.ayonforassembly.com/?ref=ivn.us), the mayor of McFarland, heads to Sacramento. Democrats outnumber every other party in AD35, but they fall well short of a majority, and that edge hasn't bought them much lately. In 2024, Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump by just 363 votes here. In California, 5.2 million voters are registered with no party preference, about 22 percent of the electorate, according to [VoterCount.ai](https://votercount.ai/?ref=ivn.us). Add the roughly 950,000 voters on the American Independent rolls and more than six million Californians have no home in either major party. That is more voters than the state's entire registered Republican base. These are the people the LA Times is calling [kingmakers](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-10-11/midterms-state-of-play?ref=ivn.us). [Everybody Wants the Independent Vote, But Nobody Actually Talks To ThemIndependent voters are now “kingmakers” in competitive races, but campaigns treat them as data points, not people. Without direct conversation, candidates miss opportunities to engage the largest voting bloc.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/icon/ivn-square-logo-ba642264-cd14-412c-974d-295ba0cdef45.png)Independent Voter NewsIVN Editorial Board![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/thumbnail/california-independent-voters-kingmakers-7ea83eb9-f09d-4da2-baa1-d59a46bcaa27.jpg)](https://ivn.us/everybody-wants-the-independent-vote-but-nobody-actually-talks-to-them/) ## **Where Water, Work, and the Harvest Come First** This district is peak California farm country. It sweeps across Kern County, taking in Delano, McFarland, Wasco, Shafter, and Arvin; the community of Lamont; and more than half of Bakersfield, including the east side. Here, politics comes down to water, land, and jobs. Many residents spend their days following the harvest from one town to the next, and the district has deep roots in the fight for farmworkers. In 1965, Filipino and Mexican American grape pickers [walked off the fields](https://www.facinghistory.org/resource-library/how-delano-grape-strike-1965-began?ref=ivn.us) in Delano, [launching the strike that helped build the United Farm Workers](https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/workers-united-the-delano-grape-strike-and-boycott.htm?ref=ivn.us) under Larry Itliong, Cesar Chavez, and Dolores Huerta. Three in four residents are Latino, and about six in 10 eligible voters are, too. The district was drawn to comply with the federal Voting Rights Act, and the Citizens Redistricting Commission split Bakersfield to keep Latino communities together. Money is tight. The typical household earns $55,794 a year, far below the California statewide average. Nearly a quarter of residents live in poverty, about as many households rely on food assistance, and about one in 10 adults has a college degree. ## **From a 25-Point Win to a Coin Flip** A decade ago, this was one of the most reliably Democratic corners of the Central Valley. Hillary Clinton carried the area by 25 points in 2016\. Then the bottom started falling out. Biden's margin slipped to 21 points in 2020\. By 2024, Harris won by just one-third of a percentage point. Over those eight years, Donald Trump's vote total here grew by about 61 percent, while Harris drew roughly 17,500 fewer votes than Biden got. The erosion showed up down the ballot too. Adam Schiff carried the district by less than two points in his 2024 Senate race, and Gavin Newsom's margin here shrank from 18 points in 2018. In 2024, the district rejected Proposition 3, the constitutional right to marry, by 299 votes even as it passed easily statewide, while backing tougher theft and drug penalties under Proposition 36 with nearly 72 percent. ## **An Open Seat and a Second Chance** This seat came open in July 2025, when Democratic Assemblymember [Jasmeet Bains](https://calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org/legislators/jasmeet-bains-165424?ref=ivn.us), after an aggressive courtship from national Democrats, announced a run against Republican Congressman David Valadao. She finished third in that primary, so her time in the Assembly ends in December. For Gonzales, it was a second chance. In 2023, he [challenged](https://sjvsun.com/news/politics/andrae-gonzales-bakersfield-councilman-launches-challenge-to-bains-for-assembly/?ref=ivn.us) Bains after she broke with her party to oppose the state gas tax and then-Speaker Anthony Rendon stripped her of a committee assignment. He raised just over $100,000 but trailed far behind in fundraising, and he[ ](https://sjvsun.com/?p=87243&ref=ivn.us)[dropped out](https://sjvsun.com/?p=87243&ref=ivn.us) months later, urging local Democrats to come together. This time, he entered the race the day after Bains announced she would run for Congress. On primary night, Ayon jumped out to a lead of roughly six points and still held it the next afternoon. But as the remaining ballots were counted, Gonzales steadily closed the gap and finished on top, 36.73 percent to Ayon's 36.66 percent. A third candidate, Democrat Ana Palacio, finished with 26.61 percent and was eliminated. Just 23.75 percent of registered voters cast a ballot in the primary. ## **The Democrat: A Downtown Councilman Selling Affordability** [Andrae Gonzales](https://www.andraegonzales.com/?ref=ivn.us), 44, is a Bakersfield native who graduated from East Bakersfield High School and studied political science at UC Berkeley. Voters first elected him to the Bakersfield City School District board in 2010, where he later served as board president in a district of more than 30,000 students. Six years later, he won a City Council seat. He won reelection unopposed in 2020 and by about 20 points in 2024\. His current term runs through 2028. His Ward 2 seat spans downtown, the Oleander neighborhood, and east Bakersfield in what is now California's ninth-largest city, and he became the first Latino to serve as Bakersfield's vice mayor. He lives in the Eastchester area of East Bakersfield. Gonzales grew up as the middle child in what he describes as a family of five siblings. He credits his late father, a counselor at Bakersfield College, with shaping his drive to serve the public, something he says began when he was just 6 years old. Since 2010, he has led[ ](https://www.stewardsinc.org/leadership?ref=ivn.us)[Stewards, Inc.](https://www.stewardsinc.org/leadership?ref=ivn.us), a Christian nonprofit that helps Kern County residents in need, many of them adults with mental disabilities, stay housed and connected to social services, in part by managing their benefit payments. It serves more than 1,000 clients. He has also helped start several other local nonprofits, including Faith in Action, Children First, the Kern Alliance of Nonprofits, and the Hub of Bakersfield. His council record is impressive, especially on housing policy. Gonzales spearheaded the Brundage Lane Navigation Center, Bakersfield's first low-barrier homeless shelter, which has 300 beds and takes in single women, men, and couples. He also created the city's Affordable Housing Trust Fund, which his campaign expects to have produced more than 1,000 affordable units by the end of this year, and the Bakersfield Community Land Trust, one of the first in the Central Valley. The land trust holds city-backed land in common so working-class families can buy single-family homes they otherwise couldn't afford. "The point is that they will be able to own something," Gonzales told *The Bakersfield Californian*. As chair of the council's budget committee, Gonzales grew city reserves to record levels and launched Bakersfield's first Section 115 pension trust to chip away at long-term retirement debt. He also cites $100 million invested in southeast Bakersfield through the city's climate work, new street lighting on the east side, resurfaced walkways in Oleander and Sunset, and work along 18th and 19th Streets that added trees, bike lanes, and pedestrian lighting and helped bring small businesses back downtown. In his ward, he upgraded Jefferson, Jastro, Oleander, Quailwood, Beale, and MLK parks; brokered a deal with the county library system to keep branches open longer; and created the city's first neighborhood traffic-calming toolkit. In addition to the budget committee, Gonzales chairs the council's Housing and Homelessness Committee and serves on its Legislative and Litigation and Water Resources committees. In 2025, he received the Dennis Wallace Community Leadership Award at the San Joaquin Valley Housing Collaborative's annual affordable housing conference. Gonzales has held elected office longer than anyone else in the race, and he argues that a long tenure should count in his favor, not against him. "In every industry, including in teaching and in nursing, experience is a positive," he said. He has built his campaign around the cost of living. "Families I represent are being squeezed," he said when he launched,[ ](https://sjvsun.com/?p=99766&ref=ivn.us)[pointing out](https://sjvsun.com/?p=99766&ref=ivn.us) that the cost of buying a home in Bakersfield had risen about 90 percent in a decade. In Sacramento, he says, his first priority would be making sure the state stops shortchanging Kern County. He also wants to tackle child poverty, which reaches one in four kids locally, and the soaring price of gas, housing, utilities, and insurance. Gonzales also takes positions that set him apart from many Democrats in the Capitol. He doesn't mind being called a "Valleycrat," the nickname for business-friendly Central Valley Democrats, and says he would fight regulations he believes hurt local oil producers and farmers, broaden Kern's economy beyond its traditional industries, and keep housing costs down. His endorsement list is long, running from Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas to the state building trades, the California Correctional Peace Officers, the California Teachers Association, school administrators, housing advocates, several business groups, and current and former officials in every city in the district. It also includes Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez, who lost this same seat to Bains in 2022, and Emilio Huerta, son of Dolores Huerta. He also has the backing of *The Bakersfield Californian*, whose editorial board [endorsed him](https://www.bakersfield.com/opinion/our-view/our-view-kern-benefits-from-having-experienced-candidates-send-gonzales-couch-to-state-assembly/article%5F64f67350-f50f-4169-a974-1da71eb86b22.html?ref=ivn.us) for November. "Gonzales' depth of experience and length of public service far exceeds Ayon's," the board wrote, also praising his willingness to bring different groups together to tackle problems. In the closing weeks, Gonzales is touring the district with a free "Made in Kern County" concert series featuring local mariachis, folklórico dancers, and bands. It kicked off at Larry Itliong Park in Delano and ends at Beale Park in Bakersfield on November 1, two days before the election. ## **The Republican: A Former Deputy Running on Results** Saul Ayon, 50, is the mayor of McFarland, a farming town of about 15,000 made famous by the 2015 film *McFarland, USA*. He grew up there, graduated from McFarland High School, and spent a quarter century as a Kern County Sheriff's deputy, from 1996 to 2021, leading a Special Emergency Response Team, training new deputies as an academy instructor, and specializing in gang prevention. He holds an associate degree in criminal justice from Bakersfield College and a bachelor's degree from Union Institute and University. After leaving the department, Ayon earned a teaching credential and returned to McFarland High, his alma mater, as a full-time criminal justice teacher. He was elected to the City Council in 2020 and became mayor in 2022, rounding out three decades in public service. He has served as president of the McFarland Chamber of Commerce and is active in party politics as secretary of the Kern County Republican Central Committee. In November 2025, he joined the California Republican Party and Assemblymember David Tangipa as a plaintiff in a federal lawsuit against Gov. Gavin Newsom challenging Proposition 50, the voter-approved measure that redrew California's congressional maps, arguing the new lines amount to racial gerrymandering in violation of the 14th and 15th Amendments. Ayon is running on what he says he delivered at home, guided by three principles he calls service, accountability, and results. According to his campaign, McFarland erased a $2.9 million budget deficit on his watch, grew its police department from three employees to more than 30, landed more than $60 million in grants for roads, water, and public safety, and launched internship and apprenticeship programs for local students. His record has also drawn scrutiny: in June, the nonprofit outlet Capital & Main reported that a 2024 agreement between McFarland and The GEO Group, which runs two ICE detention centers in the city, hands certain law enforcement duties inside the facilities to the company's civilian staff, and that Ayon did not respond to repeated requests to explain the arrangement. "I've spent my life fixing broken things," Ayon wrote in a[ ](https://www.kget.com/news/politics/your-local-elections/2026-california-assembly-district-35-candidate-questionnaire/?ref=ivn.us)[candidate questionnaire](https://www.kget.com/news/politics/your-local-elections/2026-california-assembly-district-35-candidate-questionnaire/?ref=ivn.us) for KGET, pointing to McFarland's police department and city budget, and arguing that Sacramento needs the same kind of repair. "I've always felt called to help people," Ayon says on his campaign website. "I'm ready to take that same dedication to Sacramento and fight for families, farmers, and small businesses." In an interview with *The Bakersfield Californian*, Ayon said Californians are being squeezed from every direction by higher taxes, higher utility bills, and steeper prices for homes, groceries, and medical care. His fix is to hold government accountable and lift what he sees as needless costs and red tape on employers. If the state doesn't change course, he warns, more businesses will leave. "We've got to treat our industries as assets, not as adversaries," he said. He holds up McFarland as his model. Under his leadership, he says, the city cut red tape for builders, updated its ordinances and zoning, and recruited developers to invest in town. Changes to McFarland's long-range General Plan let builders offer smaller one- and two-bedroom homes, putting ownership within reach for more local families. He says he would take that playbook to Sacramento and work with both parties to do it. The city has also spent heavily on wastewater upgrades during his tenure. On education, he wants schools to refocus on core reading and writing skills and create a smoother path into the skilled trades for graduates ready to go straight to work. Water is another top priority: he wants to defend local water rights and expand storage for agriculture and households. He also pledges strong support for law enforcement. Where Gonzales has the Sacramento establishment, Ayon has the badge. Kern County Sheriff Donny Youngblood, statewide police and sheriffs' groups, and police officers' associations in McFarland, Shafter, and Delano endorse him. He also counts the sitting mayors of Wasco, Shafter, and Arvin among his supporters, along with Congressman Valadao, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and the California Hispanic Legislative Caucus. Reform California, the conservative group founded by Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, lists AD35 as a Republican pickup opportunity. An amateur boxer, Ayon is the father of two sons and lives in McFarland. ## **The Money Behind the Race** Both major political parties have taken an interest in the race, but Gonzales has a large money advantage. Through September 19, he had raised more than $1.1 million, compared with about $421,000 for Ayon. Gonzales has spent most of it, leaving the two campaigns closer in cash in the bank: $126,306 for Gonzales and $77,780 for Ayon. Independent groups spent more than $5.1 million in the primary, one of the highest totals in any California legislative race, and most of it went to boost Gonzales. ## **Independents Hold the Key** The November math looks different from June's. Ayon won the Republican primary vote but still finished below 37 percent, while the Democratic candidates together took 63 percent. Gonzales's path runs through bringing that Democratic vote together behind him. Ayon's path runs through the same independent and crossover voters who nearly handed this district to Donald Trump two years ago. Turnout will also look nothing like June, when fewer than one in four registered voters cast a ballot. In a district this closely divided, the roughly 50,000 voters registered with No Party Preference could decide the race on their own. All active registered voters in California receive a mail ballot. Ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, November 3, and received within seven days. Californians who miss the October 19 registration deadline can still register and vote the same day at their county elections office or at a polling place.