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# IVP Poll: Voter ID Leads in California. But...
- URL: https://ivn.us/ivp-poll-voter-id-leads-in-california-but/
- Published: 2026-10-05T14:50:47.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-05T14:50:47.000Z
- Description: Plus, Iraq and Afghanistan veterans sue New York over voting rights.
- Author: IVN Editorial Board
- Tags: newsletter

Most polls answer one question: who is winning today? IVP's new California survey asks the question that decides close races: who is still undecided, and which way are they likely to go?

Take Proposition 39, the voter ID measure. It leads among likely voters, 43 percent to 40 percent. But Republicans have largely made up their minds. The voters still deciding are mostly Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and once they are accounted for, the measure is a coin flip.

Six weeks before the June primary, an **IVP poll was the first** published survey to show Xavier Becerra breaking away from the Democratic field for governor. He finished first.

[Read the full analysis](https://ivn.us/new-ca-poll-voter-id-measure-leads-today-its-undecided-voters-point-the-other-way/), then **explore the toplines and crosstabs in IVP's interactive data studio**.

In other news: the lawsuit we told you was coming has been filed. Veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars are [suing the State of New York](https://ivn.us/veterans-of-iraq-and-afghanistan-wars-sue-new-york-after-being-denied-the-right-to-vote/) over closed primaries in a case that [could make its way to the Supreme Court](https://ivn.us/the-voting-rights-case-that-could-turn-both-parties-against-the-supreme-court/).

Read about this and more stories that go beyond the two-sided narrative below.

### *NEW POLL RESULTS ▶▶▶*

## New CA Poll: Voter ID Measure Leads Today. Its Undecided Voters Point the Other Way

[![California 2026 poll: Prop 39 voter ID and undecided voters](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/10/california-poll-2026-voter-id-prop-39-undecided-voters-featured.png)](https://ivn.us/new-ca-poll-voter-id-measure-leads-today-its-undecided-voters-point-the-other-way/)

The Independent Voter Project surveyed 2,906 likely California voters and did what most polls skip: separated the decided from the undecided, then studied who the undecided are. **Prop. 39 leads, Prop. 40 is a toss-up that leans no**, and the Insurance Commissioner race turns on a single piece of information most voters do not have yet.

[READ FULL ARTICLE](https://ivn.us/new-ca-poll-voter-id-measure-leads-today-its-undecided-voters-point-the-other-way/)

### *FEATURED ▶▶▶*

## Veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan Wars Sue New York After Being Denied the Right to Vote

[![Plaintiffs and attorneys outside the federal courthouse in Manhattan](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/10/image-6e952a04-7cf5-4eae-9544-53437fb9ab64.png)](https://ivn.us/veterans-of-iraq-and-afghanistan-wars-sue-new-york-after-being-denied-the-right-to-vote/)

Paul Rieckhoff and Kristen Rouse served their country, then came home to a state that will not let them vote in the primaries their taxes pay for. **Rieckhoff v. Berger asks a basic question: does the right to vote come from citizenship, or from joining a party?**

[READ FULL ARTICLE](https://ivn.us/veterans-of-iraq-and-afghanistan-wars-sue-new-york-after-being-denied-the-right-to-vote/)

### *POPULAR ON IVN ▶▶▶*

[OpenSecrets Tears Down the Wall Between State and Federal Money Data ](https://ivn.us/opensecrets-tears-down-the-wall-between-state-and-federal-money-data/) 

By ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w30/2026/02/dJY12ln-_400x400.jpg) Shawn Griffiths 

[ ![OpenSecrets Tears Down the Wall Between State and Federal Money Data](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w320/2026/10/image-6d397c4d-ed8b-484b-9950-f79a973d96e9.jpg) ](https://ivn.us/opensecrets-tears-down-the-wall-between-state-and-federal-money-data/) 

[Pennsylvania’s Closed Primary Wall Just Took a Major Hit ](https://ivn.us/pennsylvanias-closed-primary-wall-just-took-a-major-hit/) 

By ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w30/2026/06/1517747530842.jpg) Jeremy Gruber 

[ ![Pennsylvania’s Closed Primary Wall Just Took a Major Hit](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w320/2026/10/young-independent-voters.png) ](https://ivn.us/pennsylvanias-closed-primary-wall-just-took-a-major-hit/) 

[Georgia Has 2 Million Independent Voters. Getting an Independent on the Ballot Is Another Story ](https://ivn.us/georgia-has-2-million-independent-voters-getting-an-independent-on-the-ballot-is-another-story/) 

By ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w30/2026/09/Jabari-Gibbs.jpg) Jabari Gibbs, The Current 

[ ![Georgia Has 2 Million Independent Voters. Getting an Independent on the Ballot Is Another Story](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w320/2026/09/georgia-ballot-access.jpg) ](https://ivn.us/georgia-has-2-million-independent-voters-getting-an-independent-on-the-ballot-is-another-story/) 

[Independent Voters Decide Elections. What Do They Get in Return? ](https://ivn.us/independent-voters-decide-elections-what-do-they-get-in-return/) 

By ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w30/2026/09/John_Opdycke.jpg) John Opdycke 

[ ![Independent Voters Decide Elections. What Do They Get in Return?](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w320/2026/09/2026-midterm-results.jpg) ](https://ivn.us/independent-voters-decide-elections-what-do-they-get-in-return/) 

[Pennsylvania House Votes to Open Primaries — While 63 Legislative Races Have No November Contest ](https://ivn.us/pennsylvania-house-votes-to-open-primaries-while-63-legislative-races-have-no-november-contest/) 

By ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w30/2026/02/dJY12ln-_400x400.jpg) Shawn Griffiths 

[ ![Pennsylvania House Votes to Open Primaries — While 63 Legislative Races Have No November Contest](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/size/w320/2026/09/image-a21bfe25-c7d8-4302-a9b7-ee38f9065f35.jpg) ](https://ivn.us/pennsylvania-house-votes-to-open-primaries-while-63-legislative-races-have-no-november-contest/) 

### *TAKE ACTION ▶▶▶*

## Declare Your Right to Vote

[![Declare your right to vote](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/10/og-rtv.jpg)](https://independentvoterproject.org/legal-work/right-to-vote-ny?ref=ivn.us)

IVP is taking New York’s closed primaries to federal court on behalf of 3.1 million voters locked out of taxpayer-funded elections, including an estimated 140,000 veterans. **If a closed primary has ever shut you out, your story can be used as evidence in the case.** You do not have to live in New York, and it takes about three minutes.

[DECLARE YOUR RIGHT TO VOTE](https://independentvoterproject.org/legal-work/right-to-vote-ny?ref=ivn.us)

### *INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ▶▶▶*

## Polls Hint at a Blue Wave. Are the Independents Riding it?

[![Independent candidates and the generic ballot](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/09/kevin-kiley-independent-candidates.jpg)](https://ivn.us/polls-hint-at-a-blue-wave-are-the-independents-riding-it/)

Republicans keep telling voters that independent candidates are secret Democrats. **The Democrats’ generic ballot lead has swung six points in four months**, and Matt Shinners reads the polls for who is actually riding the wave.

[READ FULL ARTICLE](https://ivn.us/polls-hint-at-a-blue-wave-are-the-independents-riding-it/)

### *LATEST EPISODE ▶▶▶*

## Independent Voter Podcast

Paul Rieckhoff joins the Independent Voter Podcast to explain why a combat veteran and 9/11 first responder is suing New York: **disenfranchisement on public property, with public funds**.

[WATCH NOW](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4X6r2OWIRuY&ref=ivn.us)

### *VIDEO CLIP ▶▶▶*

## Hasan Piker Says America Is Worse Than al-Qaeda, ‘Pound for Pound’

[![Hasan Piker on The Axios Show](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/10/piker-thumbnail.png)](https://www.instagram.com/p/DdZiP9ugeBx/?ref=ivn.us)

Streamer Hasan Piker told The Axios Show that **the United States is worse than al-Qaeda**, pointing to the February strike on an Iranian school that killed 156 people. The remark landed in the middle of Michigan’s Senate race, where GOP groups have spent close to $3 million tying Piker to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

[WATCH NOW ON INSTAGRAM](https://www.instagram.com/p/DdZiP9ugeBx/?ref=ivn.us)

### *CAMPAIGN TOOLS ▶▶▶*

## 217 Million Voters, One Chat Box: New AI Tool Opens Up the Voter File

[![The US voter file](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/09/US-voter-file.jpg)](https://ivn.us/217-million-voters-one-chat-box-new-ai-tool-opens-up-the-voter-file/)

A new AI tool called Voter Count lets anyone ask plain-English questions about **217 million registered voters**, no expensive contracts or technical expertise required. Shawn Griffiths takes it for a spin.

[READ FULL ARTICLE](https://ivn.us/217-million-voters-one-chat-box-new-ai-tool-opens-up-the-voter-file/)

## NEW: Join the Conversation

Now, when you [sign-up for an account on IVN](https://ivn.us/#/portal/signup), you can help frame, change, and inform the discussion. In fact, you can [submit your own news stories](https://ivn.us/publish/), as long as you follow the simple [IVN Etiquette](https://ivn.us/etiquette/).

[SIGN UP NOW](https://ivn.us/#/portal/signup) 

### *VETERANS ▶▶▶*

## Independent Americans with Paul Rieckhoff

On Independent Americans, Rieckhoff breaks down the landmark lawsuit from the inside: **3.1 million New Yorkers, including an estimated 140,000 veterans, locked out of the elections that decide most races**.

[WATCH NOW](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tz9VMRu1qD8&ref=ivn.us)

[![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/05/omp-320x50-1.gif)](https://openmyprimary.org/?ref=ivn.us)