> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://ivn.us/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Independent Voters Are Showing Up in North Carolina Like Never Before - URL: https://ivn.us/independent-voters-are-showing-up-in-north-carolina-like-never-before/ - Published: 2026-10-22T20:33:18.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-22T20:33:18.000Z - Description: Nearly 232,000 independent voters cast ballots in North Carolina's first five days of early voting, an 88% increase from 2022. Independents now represent 40% of registered voters in the state and are showing up at polls in unprecedented numbers. - Author: Shawn Griffiths - Tags: Independent Voters, Midterms, #Top-Story **RALEIGH**—Independent voters are showing the strength of their numbers ahead of November 3 by driving up early vote totals. However, whether either major party is paying attention is another matter. In North Carolina, nearly 232,000 voters registered unaffiliated (independent) cast ballots in the first five days of early in-person voting. This is an 88% increase over the roughly 134,000 who voted during the same period in 2022. These figures come from [data analyzed by Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer](https://ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/day-5-of-nc-early-voting-the-surge) and[ ](https://ncnewsline.com/2026/10/20/early-voting-turnout-so-far-shows-enthusiasm-among-unaffiliated-voters-in-nc/?ref=ivn.us)[reported by NC Newsline](https://ncnewsline.com/2026/10/20/early-voting-turnout-so-far-shows-enthusiasm-among-unaffiliated-voters-in-nc/?ref=ivn.us). Much of the national conversation is divided on whether increased early voting indicates a blue tsunami or if the polls are missing the mark. However, there is something else happening in North Carolina that deserves attention. Voters who refuse to register with either major party are the state's largest political constituency. And now, they are showing up at the polls in numbers that are outpacing their own registration growth. ## **The Largest Voting Bloc Isn't Republican or Democrat** According to[ ](https://www.ncsbe.gov/?ref=ivn.us)[state voter registration figures](https://www.ncsbe.gov/?ref=ivn.us), approximately 3.17 million North Carolinians are now registered as unaffiliated. They account for roughly 40% of all registered voters. Democrats and Republicans each account for about 30%, meaning much like at the national level, independent voters are the plurality in the state—and it is not even close It is not a new trend. Independent registration has been growing for years, but the turnout people are witnessing ahead of the November 3 election is putting the political consequences of that shift into focus. In the first five days of early voting, independent voters accounted for roughly 34% of ballots cast, up from 29% during the same period in 2022\. It is getting closer to matching their share of the electorate. More importantly, as previously mentioned, their turnout is outpacing their growth. Early in-person turnout increased 88% compared to 4 years ago, yet the number of registered independent voters grew by only 20% in the same time period. Thus, the turnout increase cannot solely be explained by registration growth. There is something else happening. ## **Democrats Are Surging, Too. But That's Not the Biggest Story** North Carolina's overall early voting numbers have been substantial. Through October 19, approximately 733,000 ballots had been accepted statewide, including nearly 689,000 cast in person. It’s an overall increase of approximately 38% compared to 2022, according to Bitzer's analysis. Democratic turnout has also increased sharply, while Republican early voting numbers have not quite hit their pace from the last midterm. This fuels speculation that there is, indeed, a blue wave happening. But this interprets early voting solely through a partisan lens. Party registration does not reveal how someone voted. People cannot assume a surge in independent voters is going to favor one party or the other. These voters may consistently vote one way, but could change preference from election to election. The timing also matters. Bitzer found that nearly 87,500 people who voted on Election Day in 2022 had already cast early ballots this year. That suggests some of the increase reflects voters changing *when* they vote rather than necessarily expanding the total electorate. Still, this does not take away from the growth seen among independent voters. Many independents are motivated to participate in this cycle, which will make the outcome interesting to watch. It also raises the question, does the turnout growth represent a temporary reaction to the current political environment or something more lasting? ## **The Senate Race Could Offer Some Answers** One of the clearest tests will be North Carolina's closely watched US Senate election between former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper has consistently led in public polling. The reason may be his advantage among independent voters in these polls. An[ ](https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-s-lead-holds-at-7-points?ref=ivn.us)[East Carolina University survey released on October 8](https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-s-lead-holds-at-7-points?ref=ivn.us) found Cooper leading Whatley 52% to 36% among respondents who identified as independent. Overall, among likely statewide voters, he led his opponent 50% to 43%. Now, if the majority of participating independent voters end up casting their ballots for Cooper, there will be some who claim that these voters were closet Democrats the whole time. But again, this is a partisan assessment. And an old one, at that. Cooper’s appeal is often attributed to his record of working across party lines during his time as governor. His campaign has focused on affordability, health care, and his ability to deliver results despite working with a Republican-controlled legislature. Polling has long shown that independent voters want candidates who are willing to put problem solving over partisan divisions. They want people who are willing to work across the aisle to get things done. It does not mean these voters are not persuadable if Whatley can make a better case for himself. That is the challenge he faces, along with mobilizing voters in his own base. If either candidate treats independent voters as an extension of an existing party coalition, it could be a mistake that costs them at the ballot box. Neither can afford to assume support or rejection. ## **Are The Parties Paying Attention?** Political strategists will spend the remaining days before November 3 trying to determine whether North Carolina's independent voters are breaking toward Democrats or Republicans. But that is how the system has been designed. It incentivizes people to look only at who benefits rather than the deeper story that extends beyond a single race. North Carolina has millions of voters who have chosen not to affiliate with either major party. Their numbers continue to grow. And their participation in elections has accelerated dramatically. It would be unwise to assume support. It would be unwise to assume they are all “centrists.” It would be unwise to assume they are undecided or are fence-riders. More importantly, they are not a monolithic voting bloc that can be counted on to support one party. Only time will tell how independent voters cast their ballots. The question remains, regardless of what message they send this cycle, is either party willing to listen? Especially now that independents are such a dominant force in the electorate.