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# How Liberal Is Marin County, Really? Independent Voters Will Decide
- URL: https://ivn.us/how-liberal-is-marin-county-really-independent-voters-will-decide/
- Published: 2026-09-28T18:35:35.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-28T18:35:35.000Z
- Description: In California's top-two primary system, Marin County's Assembly race between two Democrats will be decided by independent voters. Jackie Elward and Eric Lucan differ sharply on AI regulation, wealth taxes, and progressive priorities.
- Author: Cara Brown McCormick
- Tags: California 2026, Campaigns, California

**MILL VALLEY, Calif.** – Marin County has a reputation as one of America's most liberal bastions. This is where the Grateful Dead played its first show on LSD, at a [Muir Beach acid test](https://www.altaonline.com/culture/music-podcasts/a69511980/grateful-dead-acid-test-muir-beach/?ref=ivn.us), and where mountain biking was born. [Birkenstock](https://www.dwell.com/article/marin-birkenstock-building-eames-institute-design-and-art-museum-1cfef959?ref=ivn.us) has sold its sandals to Americans from here since 1971\. Marin parents once skipped kindergarten vaccines at the highest rate in the Bay Area.

So there was never much doubt that Marin and Sonoma's next Assembly member would be a Democrat. The question this fall is what kind of Democrat will be elected.

In most of the country, general election voters in gerrymandered Democratic Party territories never get to answer that question. The party primary voters pick one Democrat; the Republican will surely lose, and so the November election is a formality.

California is different. Here, a top-two primary sends the two strongest finishers to the general election regardless of party.

This year, in Assembly District 12, which takes in all of Marin and southern Sonoma, both candidates are Democrats.

[Jackie Elward](https://www.jackie4assembly.com/about?ref=ivn.us), a Rohnert Park councilmember, is backed by the Democratic Socialists of America. [Eric Lucan](https://www.ericlucan.com/?ref=ivn.us), a Marin County supervisor, is a liberal Democrat, just not as liberal as Elward.

November will be a true competition, and either candidate could win, because the deciding votes in this campaign belong to people outside either party. Roughly 82,000 independent and No Party Preference voters live in the district, and their choice between the labor-backed councilwoman and the business-backed supervisor will settle it.

## **Assembly District 12**

### **Eric Lucan (D) vs. Jackie Elward (D)**

Six candidates ran in June for the seat Damon Connolly is vacating, which Mike McGuire's term limits left open in the state Senate. Marin County Supervisor Eric Lucan led the field with 28.28 percent. Rohnert Park City Councilmember Jackie Elward, who trailed in third place until late-arriving ballots were counted, finished second with 22.58 percent. Republican Eryn Cervantes, a San Quentin correctional counselor, took third at 19.4 percent. Turnout was 50.65 percent, with 160,336 votes cast out of 316,533 registered voters.

### **Democratic Party Leaders Are Split**

Lucan has the backing of Rep. Jared Huffman, who told the Marin Independent Journal he has "zero hesitation" supporting him. Lucan's campaign counts five sitting supervisors from Marin and Sonoma, nine district mayors, and more than 100 current and former North Bay elected officials. Among them are Marin Supervisors Stephanie Moulton-Peters, Brian Colbert, and Mary Sackett. The Marin IJ editorial board puts his support at 45 of the district's 55 city and town council members.

The Marin Independent Journal[ ](https://www.marinij.com/2026/09/05/editorial-in-close-race-lucans-experience-makes-him-choice-for-assembly/?ref=ivn.us)[just endorsed Lucan](https://www.marinij.com/2026/09/05/editorial-in-close-race-lucans-experience-makes-him-choice-for-assembly/?ref=ivn.us) and is standing by its June endorsement. He also has support from Grow California, local business groups, and some unions.

Elward has the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America. The Sonoma County chapter recommended her in a[ ](https://www.instagram.com/p/DYK3HmtgY%5Fy/?img%5Findex=4&ref=ivn.us)[May 10 Instagram post](https://www.instagram.com/p/DYK3HmtgY%5Fy/?img%5Findex=4&ref=ivn.us):

"Sonoma County DSA RECOMMENDS: JACKIE ELWARD for Member of the State Assembly, 12th District. A proud labor organizer, educator, and immigrant, a Rohnert Park councilwoman, and the former mayor and vice-mayor of Rohnert Park, Elward stands above the rest of her **'progressive'** field on the issues **true progressives** care about. Her policies and priorities include: Anti-ICE; Affordable housing; Universal healthcare; Expansion of Medicare within California."

> [](https://www.instagram.com/p/Da8f-dzPury/?ref=ivn.us)

Elward also has the endorsement of Damon Connolly. Connolly told the Marin IJ editorial board she is "experienced, principled" and "knows how to stand up for our progressive values." Rep. Mike Thompson, Treasurer Fiona Ma, state Sen. Lola Smallwood-Cuevas, and Assemblymember Tina McKinnor also back her.

Labor is her base. The California Labor Federation, the California Teachers Association, 21 labor unions, and the California Young Democrats have endorsed her.

So has the California Working Families Party:

*"Slick names can’t hide the fact that crypto-bros, corporate landlords, and big oil are trying to buy California. Show them that Sonoma and Marin Counties are not for sale. Vote Jackie Elward for leadership that can’t be bought."*

> [](https://www.instagram.com/p/DdiE4shu29Y/?ref=ivn.us)

### **A 2025 Water Rate Vote Becomes a Campaign Weapon**

One of the ads targeting Elward in the primary focused on a 2025 Rohnert Park City Council vote that passed 4-1 to raise water rates to fund long-delayed capital projects, including repairs to aging tanks, water lines, and wells. Elward has defended the vote as necessary rather than political, telling reporters that the rate increases were tied to infrastructure her city urgently needed and that delaying the work would only cost residents more later. The Press Democrat noted that the attack ad excerpted only a fragment of a longer explanation she gave at the time, cutting a sentence about paying now instead of paying more later down to just its second half.

### **Labor Mailers Tie Lucan to Big Tech**

This is a Democrat-on-Democrat race. Even so, the California Labor Federation, AFL-CIO, the SEIU California State Council, and the California Teachers Association are actively campaigning against Lucan.

The group has mailed at least three negative pieces urging voters to "Reject Eric Lucan" because "Big Tech has enough friends in Sacramento." One asks, "As Concerns Grow About AI, Can We Trust Eric Lucan for Assembly?" Another anti-Lucan mailer carries a headline about AI that says "It Could Kill Us All."

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/09/image-eddf5e80-b9d3-40e6-b61b-b646df3eb1ac.png)

Another mailer says, "Tech and crypto billionaires are attacking Jackie because she will regulate AI and hold big tech accountable."

### **They Split on AI, Billionaires, and ICE**

Elward is running on an openly progressive platform. "I am the only lifelong Democrat in the race," she told the Marin Independent Journal, "and the only candidate with a truly progressive platform that aligns with the district." She says she will "fight against ICE and the Trump administration." Her list also includes single-payer health care, a cap on utility rates, closing corporate tax loopholes so billionaires pay more, and protecting abortion rights.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/09/image-0d985d8e-06a0-411c-b5d9-e4a4743d5a71.png)

Lucan is running on the cost of living, climate resiliency, and the local economy. "When you look at things like job creation, we are far behind our neighboring states," he said. He calls himself "a consensus builder" and points to support on both sides of the county line.

The sharpest split is artificial intelligence. Elward wants a statewide moratorium on new AI data centers. "They do not want it. We do not need it," she said of her constituents. Lucan sees opportunity along with risk. He wants state guardrails, especially on chatbots and children, but says California should move carefully to avoid a fight with Washington.

They also split on Proposition 40\. The November measure would impose a one-time 5 percent tax on wealth above $1 billion. Elward helped gather signatures to qualify it. Lucan opposes it. He says the top 1 percent of earners already supply 40 to 50 percent of state tax revenue, which leaves the budget exposed every time the stock market falls.

On housing, they sound closer than their coalitions. Elward says developers have too much power and local governments need control. She cited a 17-story, 200-apartment building approved in San Rafael. Lucan points to Marin's housing element, which cleared the way for 5,000 homes. He wants the state to rein in density bonuses for projects that are affordable only on paper, and he wants redevelopment financing back.

> [](https://www.instagram.com/p/DZpqsqSDdwK/?ref=ivn.us)

Both condemn Grow California's primary spending. Elward says she "took every single punch." Lucan says he has never run a negative campaign and never will.

### **The Candidates**

Lucan, born May 9, 1981, grew up in Novato and attended Novato High School. He earned a bachelor's degree in ministerial studies from Christian Life International in 2002 and an MBA from Georgia State University in 2005\. He worked as an ordained minister and as youth director and finance manager for New Life church and school. His first public post was an appointment to the Novato Parks and Recreation Commission in 2007\. He also served on Novato's planning commission. He was a registered Republican in college. He became a Democrat after winning a City Council seat in 2011, following an unsuccessful run in 2009, and spent 11 years on the council, including time as mayor. He briefly entered the 2014 race for state Senate District 2 before withdrawing ahead of the primary. He was marketing director for Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants from 2010 to 2014 and chief marketing officer for Mike's Bikes from 2014 to 2022\. He was elected to the Marin County Board of Supervisors in 2022, took office in January 2023, and now serves as board president. He has chaired the boards of Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit, the Transportation Authority of Marin, and the First 5 Marin Children and Families Commission. He and his wife, Kiley, have three children.

This month, they celebrated the birth of their daughter, who arrived early.

***“Eric delivered her since our midwives couldn't get here in time.”***

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/dc/be/dcbe1ac4-146f-43be-92a6-ea84728d86a6/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-28-at-11.01.38---AM.png)

As board president, Lucan has taken public positions on national issues: in June, he announced [Marin's decision to file an amicus brief supporting a federal injunction against a planned ICE ](https://www.marincounty.gov/news-releases/county-joins-opposition-new-ice-detention-facility?ref=ivn.us)detention facility in Santa Clara County, saying the county "remains firmly committed to opposing unlawful removals, federal overreach and actions that undermine due process." On housing, his signature issue, Lucan has written about growing up unable to afford a home in Marin, spending three years out of state before returning with a down payment on a 1963 fixer-upper. He has worked with Habitat for Humanity on the [county's first Habitat development in Novato](https://habitatgsf.org/redwood-boulevard/?ref=ivn.us) and a forthcoming 50-home project, proposed a local housing finance tool he calls "Redevelopment 2.0" after state redevelopment agencies wound down, and helped a nonprofit acquire transitional housing for youth aging out of foster care. He also supports a childcare affordability initiative on November's ballot.

> [](https://www.instagram.com/p/DcRl656EuFl/?ref=ivn.us)

Elward, born February 25, 1979, grew up in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and immigrated to the United States in the early 2000s. She is fluent in six languages and holds degrees in criminal justice from Central State University, theological studies from the Institut Biblique de Kinshasa, and sociology from CSU Chico, which she completed while already serving on the Rohnert Park council. She moved to Rohnert Park with her husband, John Ryan Elward, to raise their three children and, in 2015, founded [Les Enfants Baobab](https://www.lesenfantsbaobab.org/?ref=ivn.us), a nonprofit that supported homeless children in Kinshasa. She has worked at [Santa Rosa French American Charter School](https://srfacs.srcschools.org/?ref=ivn.us) since 2015 and now works there full-time as a bilingual educator.

[Les Enfants Baobab](https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/811697929/202131659349200718/full?ref=ivn.us) has not actively operated for several years and has not conducted any fundraising during that time, according to a statement on its website. The statement describes it as a small volunteer effort that never fully developed as intended, particularly after COVID-19 and the loss of a key board member to cancer in early 2023\. While active, it helped provide housing and educational support for about 15 vulnerable children in [Kinshasa](https://www.britannica.com/place/Kinshasa?ref=ivn.us), where many children live on the streets. Other organizations continue that work today. The statement says administrative filings related to the nonprofit are being resolved. No one has been accused of personally profiting from it. The issue involves administrative filings for an inactive volunteer organization. The statement says outside political groups are trying to turn that administrative issue into a political attack during a competitive Assembly race.

Elward lost an at-large council bid in 2018\. In June 2020, following the killing of George Floyd, she organized a [Black Lives Matter march in Rohnert Park](https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/hundreds-turn-out-for-black-lives-matter-march-rally-in-rohnert-park-to-se/?ref=ivn.us) that drew several hundred people to the city's public safety headquarters, and she called for a citizen oversight committee for the police department.

That November, running in the city's first district-based election, she unseated six-term incumbent Jake Mackenzie, becoming the first Black woman elected to the council. She served as vice mayor beginning in 2021, and her council colleagues appointed her mayor that December, a role she held through 2022\. During her time on the council, Rohnert Park adopted police accountability measures and created a civilian crisis-response team to handle mental health and homelessness calls that would otherwise go to police; Elward has said she inherited 82 homeless encampments in the city and that the number is now zero, citing $40 million in funding she secured for interim housing and the city's participation in Project Homekey. In 2022, then-Assemblymember Cecilia Aguiar-Curry named her the district's Woman of the Year, and Rep. Mike Thompson invited her to attend President Biden's first address to Congress virtually.

Elward has also spoken publicly about racism she has faced in office, including a 2021 incident in which an anonymous caller used racial slurs and told her to leave the country over her support for a fireworks ban, and later described a pattern of being dismissed and labeled "angry" that she said other Black women in Sonoma County politics have experienced as well.

She ran unsuccessfully for state Senate District 3 in 2024, placing fourth in a five-candidate primary, and Huffman endorsed her in that race, among others; this cycle, Huffman has endorsed Lucan instead. She sits on the board of [North Bay Jobs with Justice](https://www.northbayjwj.org/?ref=ivn.us), a labor and community coalition spanning Napa, Sonoma, and Marin counties. She has served on the Sonoma County Transportation Authority and Sonoma Clean Power.

### **The District**

Assembly District 12 covers all of Marin County and portions of Sonoma. It includes the full cities of San Rafael, Rohnert Park, Larkspur, Sausalito, Novato, Petaluma, Belvedere, Mill Valley, and Cotati, the communities of Corte Madera, Fairfax, Ross, San Anselmo, and Tiburon, and part of Santa Rosa.

Marin accounts for roughly 57 percent of registration and leans Democratic by about 47 points; Sonoma makes up the remaining 43 percent and leans Democratic by about 37 points, a modest but real difference that underscores Lucan's advantage in the larger and more heavily Democratic half of the district. Highway 101 ties the area together, along with a shared identity built around small towns, coastal protection, and open space.

Democrats hold 57.9 percent of registration in the district and Republicans 15.5 percent, leaving roughly 81,800 voters, or about 27 percent, registered with neither party. Of those, about 59,400 are No Party Preference. The district has trended this way for years: Republican registration has fallen by about six points since 2008, while the Democratic advantage has widened from 32 points to more than 43\. At the top of the ticket, the pattern has held. Hillary Clinton carried the district by 56 points in 2016, Joe Biden by 59 points in 2020, and Kamala Harris won by roughly 55 points in 2024.

The district's population is about 481,000, and its voting-age population, at roughly 71 percent, skews more heavily white than the overall population; Latino residents make up about a quarter of the population but a much smaller share of eligible voters, a gap that reflects the district's noncitizen population. It is an incredibly affluent area: median household income is nearly $119,000, just over 8 percent of residents live below the poverty line, and half of adults hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Homeownership is common, with 62 percent of households owning at a median value of $1,043,000, while renters pay a median of $2,364 a month.