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# Engineered by the RNC, Winner-Take-All Primaries Are Now The Party's Worst Nightmare
- URL: https://ivn.us/engineered-by-the-rnc-winner-take-all-primaries-are-now-the-partys-worst-nightmare/
- Published: 2016-02-16T15:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-06-22T19:52:05.000Z
- Author: John E Palmer
- Tags: Opinion

Three establishment candidates remain standing in the GOP race — Kasich, Rubio, and Bush. Reince Priebus needs two of them to drop out soon, or he and the other GOP establishment pooh-bahs may be faced with [Donald Trump ](https://ivn.us/tag/donald-trump)winning the GOP nomination with just 30-something percent support of voting Republicans.

How is this possible? The RNC has engineered the primary process to be dominated by winner-take-all contests, presumably to avoid brokered conventions. While the early contests are proportional (with thresholds) in their awarding of delegates, South Carolina is winner-take-all, and starting March 15 (Super Tuesday), virtually all remaining contests are winner-take-all. In all, winner-take-all states add up to well over 900 delegates, well over two-thirds of the 1,237 magic number to win the nomination.

Now, combine the structure of the contests with the fractured-but-persistent establishment slate. Chris Christie has dropped out of that bunch, but his billionaire donor, Kenneth Langone, is now backing[John Kasich](https://ivn.us/tag/john-kasich), shoring up the Ohio governor’s chances to stay in the race for a while (Kasich’s home state of Ohio is winner-take-all on March 15). Kasich’s persistence was also energized by his second place finish in New Hampshire.

Likewise, [Jeb Bush ](https://ivn.us/tag/jeb-bush)is not going anywhere even if it remains true that he’s not going anywhere -- he did just well enough in New Hampshire to quell the “give it up” whispers and he has the super PAC money to go the distance. Finally, despite a rough New Hampshire,[Marco Rubio ](https://ivn.us/tag/marco-rubio)is still the RNC’s highest-odds establishment hope.

Kasich, Bush, and Rubio may well be splitting the establishment vote until March 15\. The current math says they are splitting 41.9%, as Trump, Cruz, and Carson—non-establishment—are polling at a total of 58.1% ([Real Clear Politics average](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016%5Frepublican%5Fpresidential%5Fnomination-3823.html?ref=ivn.us)). Trump’s current 31.7% polling average will get some oxygen assuming Ben Carson (6.7%) drops out. With that, a mid- to high-30s average performance by Trump positions him nicely for the winner-take-all contests versus a three-person split of the 42% establishment support that Bush, Rubio, and Kasich (or even a two-person split between two of these candidates) may face.

The alternative to so many winner-take-all contests might be proportional contests all the way to June. That would have virtually guaranteed a brokered convention, but one might guess that the RNC would take that over the Trump (or Cruz?) nomination coming out of a very fractured and persistent field.