Data scientists Vinad Bakthavachalam and Jake Fuentes have published this study of the Electoral College. They estimate that in future U.S. presidential elections in which the popular vote margin between the two leading candidates is 3% or less, "over 30% of elections in the next century are likely to select a President against the will of the majority of voters.
Thanks to Justin Levitt for the link.
Read the full study:
Editor's note: This update originally published on Ballot Access News and has been republished with permission from the author.