[Updated 11/6] Who is Really Winning the Presidential Election?
By Chad Peace on 11/01/2012 in open primary, Polls, Presidential Polls, Proposition 121 with 26 CommentsRead Time: 2 - 2 minutes
One of the disadvantages from the ease of accessing information in today’s political world is that there are 4,973,874 different political polls tracking another large random number of elections, issues, and sentiments. How do you know who is really winning the Presidential election? This graph from the Huffington Post tracks 546 different Presidential Polls and puts them all in a single chart, and aggregates the results.
Check Out the Presidential Poll Aggregation
Who is Really Winning the Presidential Election?
Aside from aggregating views of voters about the presidential election, more and more polling firms have been asking voters about their political tendency, regardless of their “official” party registration. Something that would concern the two big parties, and perhaps encourage those who are fed up with partisanship: the number of voters across the country that self-identify as independent voters exceeds that of Democrat and Republican.
While most states condition a voter’s ability to effectively participate in the election process through primary/caucus voting limitations and extraneous ballot access requirements for candidates who are not part of the Red or Blue teams, states like California have adopted new voting laws that open up the process to everyone.
Check Out the Latest Voter Registration Statistics





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26 Comments
Michael Higham
11.01.2012
@michaelhigham
I had no idea that independents were the highest party identification since July 2009. It’s a matter of time before a strong third-party candidate makes a surge in the political scene. I also love the aggregation of the many polls by Huffington Post.
Rick London
11.01.2012
It’s clearly President Obama again. Has Nate Silver ever been wrong? No, he’s never even benn off more than a few numbers on the Electorial College and he has Obama ahead 300-224. I think he’s being generous to Romney, but he also thinks Congress will be Demo in both houses and he’s usually right on target (so far Demos 2% ahead in Congress) so….
Alex Gauthier
11.01.2012
@alexg
independents have really surged since 2008
Marcus Schantz
11.01.2012
@mlschantz
What bothers me are Independent numbers that high with no real party. Independents have always been viewed as on the fringe, but this independence movement is a natural byproduct of Americans moving more towards the political middle. The mainstream media keeps pumping out political issues that appeal to the extremes in each party; it maintains constant friction. Rational America has no voice.
Rick London
11.01.2012
To a certain degree, I agree, but I see a fairly consistent posture with Obama. He’s getting all the major endorsements from conservative and liberal media which is generally a tell-tale sign you’ve got someone who nobody finds very extreme..and I don’t either. I think he’s done an amazingly good job given the GOP obstruction; and most Indies on Twitter with whom I speak are, like me, ex GOP regugees now in the Independent Party…we left the GOP when it stopped being a party and morphed into a cult. An extreme cult (and I’m being very very kind). Watch Nate Silver…he takes each poll apart piece by piece; has done so for years and out predicted them every single time. He’s got Obama at 300 Electorals; I think Romney at 224. Sounds right.
Jane Susskind
11.01.2012
@jsusskind
wow, that’s a lot of polls
Bob Mack
11.01.2012
@bob_mack
Let me suggest that a large number of ‘independents’ are embarrassed Republicans… They still vote GOP more often than not but they’re more centrist than the current GOP party .
Rick London
11.01.2012
Has anyone ever seen a poll that’s close? I’ve not (not on elections this large). Nate Silver at NY Times ALWAYS gets it right. He just bumped Obama up 300 -225 (Electoral) This show is over. But still vote. Someone posted that this Indie party is full of GOP refugees are simply more centrist than the GOP Party but still vote it. Not in my Tweetdeck streams. In fact they are ALL voting Obama and a few Johnson and Stein. Why in the hell would someone leave a party to vote it? Sounds like changing dirty underwear only to put on more dirty underwear. Obama is about as centrist as one can get. No president in history has had all the major liberal and conservative rags backing him. That’s a sign he has a very high approval rating. Romney has a high approval rating if you enjoy smoke and mirrors. I like Jill Stein a lot; but not this time. Too impt not to let Romney in (or other “GOP Cult” candidates. It’s not longer a party, it truly is a cult; and I’m being generous in that description.
Trevor Bacquet
11.02.2012
if you truly want to know, look at the independent vote.
David Iwanicki
11.02.2012
If all of those voters identifying as “Independent” would waste their vote on Gary Johnson, REAL CHANGE would come to Washington!
Live Free! garyjohnson2012.org
Andrew
11.02.2012
The funny thing is, there is no Gary Johnson on this poll, meaning we will never know how many votes he gets. It’s the Paradigm as always.
James Hanks
11.02.2012
China. Alqueda. Muslim Brotherhood. Russia.
To name a few.
Cody Lupardus
11.02.2012
David Iwanicki: Some of us are socialists and are very unlikely to vote for Johnson. >.<
Patrick Stuff Gossett
11.02.2012
Romney has been in mid double digits with Independents for a month..To average 500+ polls that all but maybe 3 over sample Dems by over +8 is useless .Average the top.three polls who have the highest accuracy rating of the last 5 elections.Do that and Obama is done.
Karen Taylor
11.02.2012
^^ Who is ‘Rodney’? ^^
Ryan Kilbey
11.02.2012
Ryan kilbey for president
Scotty Mcwilliams
11.02.2012
Romney is a fool and considering momentum has shifted Obama is winning.
Janis Henson
11.02.2012
And if the popular vote mattered so would that chart and republicans comments but the popular vote is completely irrelevant
Rodney Housholder
11.02.2012
That’s an eye opener Independents out number Demarcates and Republicans. So the majority of American votes are just feed up with the left and right. And the party leaders still cant figure it out. Enough is Enough. Vote Gary Johnson send them a massage. And watch all those Billons of dollars in Campaign money go right out window. Brake the Banks.
Suzanne Beling
11.02.2012
I hope that you, and all your love one are ok!!! Miss you Lady Michelle.
Jonathan Rice
11.02.2012
Nate Silver does some good work with his evaluations of the polls and has a remarkable track record.
Jo Ann Vacirino
11.02.2012
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151517990183868&set=a.10151488704213868.585115.45413563867&type=1&theater
Trevor Bacquet
11.02.2012
I wasn’t aware they did any reporting
Paul Yankowskas
11.02.2012
I’ll predict that the “take a blue coffee cup for Obama or a red coffee cup for Romney” poll that 7-11 is running will be more accurate than any of the high priced research polls…
Pass It On Vote Obama 2012
11.02.2012
Please vote. http://vimeo.com/pawpro/passitonvoteobama2012
Bob Barber
11.02.2012
Romney all the way.