NYT Examines “Myth” of Swing Voters
By Kymberly Bays on 08/17/2012 in elections 2012, independent voters, independents, New York Times, Pew Research Center, presidential election, swing vote, swing voters, undecideds with 1 CommentRead Time: 2 - 2 minutes
A New York Times article from yesterday on swing voters, “Few Voter are Truly Up for Grabs, Research Suggests“, is worth the read…even if you disagree.
Writes Rebecca Berg:
In spite of clichés about Nascar dads and Walmart moms, the actual share of voters nationally who are up for grabs is probably between just 3 percent and 5 percent in this election, polling experts say. The Obama and Romney campaigns are expected to spend on the order of $2 billion, in part to try to sway this tiny share of the electorate.
“There’s a very small slice of people who are genuinely undecided, but it’s enough to win the presidency,” said Rich Beeson, the political director for Mr. Romney’s campaign.
The share of swing voters might even have declined in recent years, as many voters have become more reliably partisan. A recent report by the Pew Research Center found that self-identified Democrats are more liberal than in the past and self-identified Republicans are more conservative.
She continues:
Part of the difficulty in identifying swing voters derives from confusion about the term “swing voter” itself. These voters might describe themselves as “undecided,” for example, or as “persuadable.” Often, they call themselves “independents,” although many who identify that way are not.
Read more at the New York Times and then let us know if you agree, disagree, kind of agree, totally and completely think these points are wrong.
Leave Your Comment →
1 Comment
Dan Richards
08.19.2012
@danrich
The problem with Polls, is they are too often unbalanced, and directed at targeted goals of the purchaser. In so much that none of the Polling companies are that accurate. I did some reading for an article I did, and found an interesting fact that swing State voters actually test higher on the IQ charts than either the Blue States or Red States, and I do not think that what this woman said will have any effect on that variable. Being of that nature, it will be more up to those voters when they vote, over what a directed poll will say now, as anything could come to light that would change their mind, and might already have. If what I am reading is right, most of your Swing State Voters will use much more critical thinking in their votes than the Red or Blue State Voters will, so that will leave an unpredictable variance that no poll will be able to detect.