Quinnipac Poll: Both Republicans and Democrats Are Not Safe from An Independent Campaign

image
Published: 20 Feb, 2016
2 min read

Quinnipiac University has released its newest presidential polling data, with some surprising analysis for those considering an independent run at the White House for 2016.

While this is the first major poll showing Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) beating all of the Republican field in the general election, the most important thing this poll showed is that an independent run at the POTUS would hurt both party's chances--but the Democratic candidate worse.

In the past, independent candidates were seen as a spoiler to one side or the other. All too often major party candidates tell voters that 'a vote for the independent is a vote for the opponent,' and often this analogy is true--the independent siphons votes from one side significantly worse than the other (i.e. Ross Perot's two presidential campaigns).

In modern elections, during the primary season, the candidate has to consolidate the base by rallying to the core principles of the ilk. Then, in the general election, there is a standard gesture to the center, trying to win over independents, swing-voters, and the valuable political center. It is impossible for either candidate to win without the non-aligned and political center.

This phenomenon has grown in recent cycles, and what this poll is suggesting is that a strong independent candidate who appeals to the center and non-aligned voters will both capture it and siphon votes from both sides of the political partisan divide.

Why is this?

Without a question, Bernie Sanders is a self-proclaimed extreme of the political left. Likewise, the major Republican contenders, with the possible exception of Kasich, represent different aspects of the extreme political right--social, economic, or political. Gestures to the center by either side will be extremely difficult, and will most likely be wholly determined by the vice-president tap on both sides.

Where President Obama had a party darling as a political partner in Joe Biden to consolidate his party weaknesses, 2016 will be determined by both sides appealing to (or possibly even appalling) the center with their VP choice.

But if a candidate started in the political divide, like a moderate such as Michael Bloomberg could, then neither side would easily capture those votes and would lose a certain number of party members who are tired of the party antics and partisanship.

IVP Donate

This poll should also serve as a warning to the parties about the modern primary system. A moderate can win the general election, but can't currently win a primary in either party. What this has created is a climate where a moderate independent could completely circumvent the party primaries, avoid the political 'battering,' and still come out viable in the general election.

The parties have created this opportunity, it's now time for the independents to capitalize on it.

Photo Credit: danielfela / shutterstock.com

You Might Also Like

Why Mathematicians Love Ranked Choice Voting
Why Mathematicians Love Ranked Choice Voting
The Institute for Mathematics and Democracy (IMD) has released what may be the most comprehensive empirical study of ranked choice voting ever conducted. The 66-page report analyzes nearly 4,000 real-world ranked ballot elections, including some 2,000 political elections, and more than 60 million simulated ones to test how different voting methods perform....
11 Dec, 2025
-
4 min read
California flag
Quirk Silva’s Exit Sparks a High-Profile Orange County Clash, Where Independent Voters Control the Math
California’s 67th Assembly District stretches across parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, connecting some of the region’s most dynamic and diverse suburban communities. It includes the entire cities of Cerritos, La Palma, Hawaiian Gardens, Artesia, Buena Park, and Cypress, as well as portions of Fullerton and Anaheim....
18 Dec, 2025
-
6 min read
Donald Trump
Trump Signs Order to Reclassify Cannabis to Schedule III
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump announced Thursday that his administration will officially move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act, a decision that marks the most significant change to U.S. drug policy since the early 1970s....
18 Dec, 2025
-
2 min read