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Prediction: Sanders, Trump Will Win Iowa – But Party Insiders Will Take the Delegates

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Looking ahead to the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, February 1, IVN predicts that Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders will win their respective caucuses. However, IVN further predicts that the parties will find a way to take these wins away from them.

Every election year, IVN makes at least one prediction about the outcome of a major race. In 2012, IVN called Florida for Barack Obama before any other news outlet. In 2014, IVN projected that U.S. Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) was going to keep his seat in a hotly contested race against Republican Carl DeMaio.

This year, though the media reports a tight race going into the Republican and Democratic caucuses, IVN predicts that Trump and Sanders will take the most votes from caucus participants and win their respective contests.

Both Trump and Sanders have strong support, not only from members of the Republican and Democratic parties, but from voters who are fed up with the status quo and feel disenchanted or disenfranchised by the current political system or cannot find a home in any political party.

The Republican leadership has frequently rebuked the candidacy of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is often at odds with the Democratic National Committee, which briefly denied him access to the party’s voter database in December and scheduled a limited number of debates on the weekend, an inconvenient time for a presidential primary debate.

This is why IVN further predicts that the parties will manipulate the private party rules that determine the allocation of delegates, including changing convention rules or going against the will of caucus voters, to make sure Sanders and Trump don’t get to eat the fruits of their victories.

It wouldn’t be the first time the parties have stepped in to alter the outcome in the nomination process.

In the 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus, Ron Paul officially came in third. However, Paul — who had a very similar appeal with voters as Trump and Sanders — had a different strategy than just winning votes. Paul’s grassroots-driven campaign encouraged supporters to remain at their polling location after the vote in order to become county delegates — the first step toward becoming a delegate at the national level.

IVN predicts that the parties will manipulate the private party rules that determine the allocation of delegates ... to make sure Sanders and Trump don't get to eat the fruits of their victories.
Unlike his primary opponents, Ron Paul played the delegate game, aimed at caucus states, and he played it well. However, reports suggest that various state Republican parties and the Republican National Committee blocked several Ron Paul delegates, either by unseating them or replacing them at the Republican National Convention.

Party leaders argued that Paul hadn’t secured majority support in any of the primary states, and therefore didn’t deserve the nomination. The party leadership also changed the rules during the 2012 convention to allow the RNC to change convention rules between conventions without the say of party delegates.

Fast forward to the present. Donald Trump is leading in Iowa and several states. While many did not treat him seriously in the beginning of his campaign, it is beginning to sink in that Trump could very well win the nomination if he is able to mobilize his support on the ground.

It is indeed possible that the race for the Republican nomination could last until the Republican National Convention, and there have been reports that elected officials and party leaders within the Republican Party have met to discuss forcing a brokered convention, which happens when no single candidate has secured a majority of party delegates headed into the convention.

Since the party has already shown that they can unseat and replace delegates at will — regardless of how voters cast their ballot — an argument can be made that an unsatisfied Republican establishment may insist that such tactics be used to prevent Trump from winning the party’s presidential nomination.

In short, the argument from the parties will be flipped this year from their respect for the majority vote in 2012. Delegate rules will matter and the people’s choice will be underplayed, away from the public discussion in the media.

Just like the Republican Party, for Bernie Sanders and the Democrats, it will all come down to the delegate count at the Democratic National Convention. However, unlike the Republican Party, the Democratic Party has superdelegates, chosen from elected officials and party leaders in each state, who can commit to any candidate they want, regardless of how primary and caucus voters vote.

According to a report on IVN, more than half of the party’s 712 superdelegates have already decided who they plan to support at the national convention — 359 of whom said they plan to vote for Clinton.

“With more than half of the superdelegates already intending to vote for her, Clinton is beginning the contest with a 15 percent head start in the effort to win the 2,382 delegates needed to have majority support at the July convention — and not a single primary vote has been cast yet,” writes IVN independent author Andrew Gripp.

In total, 15 percent of the conventions delegates can commit to a candidate with or without the support of their state’s voters, meaning Democratic leaders have significant control over who ends up winning the nomination. By using convention rules and these superdelegates, the Democratic Party could easily ensure Bernie Sanders does not get the nomination.

For any dissenting voice or candidate who challenges the will of the Republican and Democratic parties, the deck is already heavily stacked against them. In the end, the parties may decide that it doesn’t matter what primary and caucus voters think because the system currently places the interests of two private organizations ahead of the will of voters.

And as the courts have decided over and over again, the party nomination proceedings are private. So the will of the public, nor the courts, can stop the party from changing the rules to protect their preferred candidates.

Learn More About The Ron Paul Delegate Fiasco

IVN's Complete Coverage of the 2012 Delegate Controversy

Read On

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527 comments
Kimberly Fujioka
Kimberly Fujioka

I totally agree. That is why I am voting for the one who is addressing it: Bernie!

JustinRenquist
JustinRenquist

Excellent article but one major flaw. The Democratic Party superdelegates made up 20% of all convention delegates until new DNC rules pushed by Obama after his election in 2008, when the dnc rules and bylaws were modified to make unpledged superdelegates make up 15% of all delegates as opposed to 20%. Not 30% as erronepusly stated in this article. You can verify this in the DNC rules and bylaws for delegate allocation for 2016. 

Shawn M Griffiths
Shawn M Griffiths moderator

@JustinRenquist Thank you for the feedback, Justin. We have looked further into the matter and have made the appropriate corrections. 

Damien McGinnis
Damien McGinnis

Few have the misconception that anything comes for free. The fact remains we are the richest country the world yet are the only industrialized nation without some form of universal healthcare except Medicare for seniors, which is praised far more than not. Medicare for all makes sense. The uninsured, even under the so called affordable care act, which is anything but affordable, cost us billions annually, on both state and federal levels. Bernie's healthcare plan is paid for by a payroll tax and a small personal tax and results in a huge net savings to both the government and individuals. Employers already subsidize healthcare for employees, so consider the 4.4% payroll tax to be in lieu of this. We will have cost control measures like those which are in place and proven around the world under a single payer Medicare for all system (instead of private insurers being charged up to $1000 for saline bags and passing on costs to consumers in the form of high premiums, co pays, and deductibles). Not to mention the fact that we have effectively incentivized going to jail by providing free health care and dental services to prisoners. Let's look at so called "free" college. Its said it will cost 60 billion annually to provide everyone in America with a free public college education. Do you happen to know how much the Federal Government allocates annually for Pell Grants? Well, its 40 billion, an expenditure we can do away with if we simply provide college for all. Nevermind the fact millions will not meet the academic criteria, elect to go to private universities, or trade schools, we aren't literally to give a free public education to everyone. Beyond those unwarranted criticisms, Bernie wants to invest in our infrastructure, which will create jobs and fir which we will reap the tears for years to come. Our infrastructure is neglected, aging, and failing. We have no choice but to invest in infrastructure. Crisis management (emergency repairs and catastrophic failures) cause us spend more in the long run and to spend inefficiently. Our greatest President, Theodore Roosevelt shared the views held by Bernie Sanders and his policies such as the New Deal turned this country around. The past 40 years of economic policy and deregulation have shrunk the once robust middle class and economic indicators show that we face another great depression if we continue those policies. Bernie is the only candidate with a broad, socio-economic plan that assesses all the problems facing our nation. Its not about the so called free stuff, which of course isn't free! Its about spending wisely, growing the economy, and creating economic opportunity for those who have little or none, lifting them out of poverty and reducing the need for welfare such as food stamps and subsidized housing. We will be far better off with Bernie. As for Trump, his tax plan gives further cuts to the rich, who are already enjoying effective tax rates as low as 15%. He also says he'll tax companies on holdings overseas, much like Bernie. How is that any more friendly to business?

Letitia Pepper
Letitia Pepper

America cannot trust Russia, and Trump cannot trust Putin.  Getting a compliment from Putin is a BAD omen, not a sign that trump is a wise leader.  Anyone who remembers history knows that Russia originally allied with HITLER, and only joined the Allies after Hitler double-crossed Stalin.  And then, once WW II was won, Russia promptly double-crossed its allies, England and Britain, and tried to starve the Berliners into submission to communism.  Then Russia also turned on America during the Korean War.  

       Who was behind the Berlin Wall?  Russia.  So Putin no doubt thought Trump's idea about building a wall between Mexico and the US meant he'd be a perfect patsy to co-opt into Russia's methods of forcing its political beliefs on a captive populace via starvation (remember the Berlin airlift?), tanks, walls and rhetoric.  How soon people forget what Putin is doing in the Ukraine and Georgia -- trying to subvert a popular, democratically-elected government via Russian soldiers who are not wearing Russian uniforms!  Putin is a sneak, and if Trump trusts him, Trump is NOT the wise leader American needs.

Letitia Pepper
Letitia Pepper

Is getting a compliment from Putin a GOOD sign? Anyone who thinks America can trust the Russians has a poor understanding of history.  Right after WW II ended, the Russians tried to take over Eastern Europe in the name of communism.  During the Korean War, who was right there, shooting at American pilots?  Russian pilots.   Who tried to invade and take over the Ukraine, using Russians without Russian uniforms?  Russia, most recently under Putin.

    When any country has to force its political beliefs on any population via the use of tanks, soldiers, starvation and walls, it's not a good thing for the world in general, or for democracy.  When Trump started talking about building walls as the answer to our immigration problems, Putin no doubt immediately recognized a kindred, dictatorial spirit.  But could Trump ever TRUST Putin?  No way.

KMack68
KMack68

The expert of stupidity maybe. Lol

KMack68
KMack68

And the only coward is Trump. He is the most UN-AMERICAN person that most real Americas have ever seen. The fact that you think he is intelligent is telling though. He has been called the opposite & much worse by everyone with a brain.

KMack68
KMack68

I feel sorry for you if u believe that. The man is a Psycho. He calls everyone a Communist & he is the one that is very similar to Hitler. He is not the populist. Bernie Sanders is in every single poll. America isn't dumb enough to vote him in.

hp
hp

Never happen with Trump. Beyond screwing by shysters. They're cowards.

Why not just admit it. Crawl out of the denial doldrums and see it for what it is.

You've never in your life, if in history, seen the likes of this. And it's only just begun..


Mr. Trump is not only a super populist, he's super intelligent, humorous and relatable. Not a single one of skills and talents are held by any of the other carny shysters. 

Yeah, that's what they are and everyone not only knows it, we've HAD IT!


Has Putin, like it or not, complimented anyone else? Compliments from actual world class people, not pop stars, movie stars and perverts. Yeah, get used to it. 


Trump is an expert, the rest are merely mediocre professionals, at best..    

hp
hp

As evinced from that knife still sticking out of Bernie's back, I think it's safe to assume who the "so say we all" DNC will be carrying water for..

Maryann Del Valle
Maryann Del Valle

Damien McGinnis here is my honest answer to your question. I am a retired veteran and for 21 years of my career I have lived in other countries some which are socialist and some which are quasi socialist and without getting into some major drawn-out explanation the things that I have noticed about those countries where that they were the highest taxed countries in the world. Their businesses left because of taxation and because they tried to tax the wealthiest of the population and those people also left, so here's the problem, when you have a big government that promises you lots of free things the money has to come from somewhere. And if they drive their source of income away such as revenues and taxes they acquire from the businesses and the money they acquire from the rich through taxes, then the government collapses. Look up and really study the country of Venezuela because effectively that's probably the only country that's close to where Bernie wants to take us and really honestly do a country study of their history and where the government is today. And always remember that nothing ever comes for free. PS whether it matters or not that we are on opposite sides, for the record I believe that Bernie is very passionate and truly believes in what he says.....good luck!

Letitia Pepper
Letitia Pepper

Did you know that the US government has made about $8 billion dollars from profits from prescription drugs sold through Medicare since the the Part D legislation passed?  It's made that money via something called "risk corridors" that it entered into with Big Pharma. While this can be seen as a "good thing," no one is talking about how drug prices are artificially high, and will remain so as long as the government continues to prohibit Medicare (and now Obamacare) from negotiating drug prices.  Thus, the US government has been hand-in-glove with big Business (the definition of fascism) for a long time now.  

     So if we could get government to get out of business with corporations, and also force individual people in the government to stop neglecting the tasks for which they are paid (e.g., regulating businesses so as to protect the People from predatory practices) we wouldn't need to increase taxes on the wealthy in an effort to to recapture some of the profits they've made via government policies and programs. 

       The widening divide in income and in ownership of assets is a sign that government isn't doing its job, and is in cahoots with the wealthy.  It used to be that a CEO of a company made 30 times what the average employee made.  Now it's more like 300 times.  Is that because CEOs are doing a better job, being more productive, etc.?  Or is it because they have political control and are consolidating more and more control in their hands, and out of the hands of the People?

     This disparity in ownership and income is creating a climate in which huge economic shifts are increasingly disruptive.  This is what leads to economic disasters, civil unrest, wars, and famines.  

Jennifer Kaiser
Jennifer Kaiser

So that only the people who are members of each party can vote.

Jennifer Kaiser
Jennifer Kaiser

It's because some of the primaries are closed to independents.

StPatrik
StPatrik

The democrat party superdelegates will align with whichever candidate they believe will win the White House for their party. The party might not like that Sanders is more popular with the people than Clinton, but I am certain they would rather put Sanders in the White House than Trump. Once they realize Clinton can not beat Trump they will shift their support accordingly. Sanders can and will win. Yes, "359 [have] said they plan to vote for Clinton", but they are under no binding commitment and are still free to vote for Sanders in the best interest of the Democratic Party. I guess FOX doesn't have a monopoly on fear mongering- IVN has decided to jump into that game too? 

SeeCraig
SeeCraig

@StPatrik I don't think it's that simple. It's about party fundraising and if Sanders is nominated, the corporate funds that fuel the patronage system, dries up. Sanders would kill the party funding. This is precisely why Debbie Wasserman Schulz is doing what she's doing. Her job as DNC Chair is Money.

Rick Yellets
Rick Yellets

Mickey, Obama said we need to allow them to come in but he needed legislation from CONGRESS to do it... the 'R's' countered and said that they will have to go to the back of the line and pay fines before that would ever happen... Obama AGREED, yet Congress has not come up with a bill... IT PAYS MORE MONEY TO BUSINESSES TO NOT CREATE A PLAN... Just let those people live in limbo, in a flux... let them scurry around like rats and work for two-peanuts an hour... You see, we needed IMMIGRANTS to come in fast because at the time REAGAN signed his AMNESTY, there were not enough workers to go around,,, Because there was an epidemic of abortions after Roe, which was put in place by 'R' appointed justices on the Supreme Court, look it up, they created the problem... by the time we got to 1986 when the AMNESTY was put in place we were short of labor because (collectively) had killed a generation of workers... YES, we want them to be LEGAL,,, BUT THEY ARE ILLEGAL BECAUSE THIS WAS THE TEMPORARY FIX BY THE RIGHT TO CORRECT A PROBLEM... Don't you get it... a lot of money is being made if things DO NOT CHANGE... WHY FIX IT... That is the thinking on the Right, and they really do not care if you do not like it... They are transparent... DON'T FIX A PROBLEM IF THEIR SMALL SELECT FROUP ARE MAKING MONEY... TO HELL WITH WHAT IS THE PROPER WAY TO SOLVE A PROBLEM... Money is being stuffed in their pockets to NOT DO THEIR JOBS, and if you don't like it, it is just TOO BAD... THERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Get it...

Serena Chezit
Serena Chezit

It needs to be the popular vote that decides the outcome of the election. Not the electoral.

Dan Mendez
Dan Mendez

If it's straight popular vote with no electoral college than every vote does count regardless of whether or not the majority of the people in your state or district voted the same. Districts being redrawn by population would only truly affect state leadership no?

Mickey Scott
Mickey Scott

Rick Yellets but we want LEGAL immigrants !!

Betty Buckel
Betty Buckel

There aren't enough Republicans in the United States to vote for Trump to win the presidency

Donna Rogers
Donna Rogers

Super delegates were established as a just in case the people decided not to obey the establishment rules. Our responsibility is to vote. If the DNC tries to pull a fast, Bernie can turn out very large crowds. In the middle of summer, we can scare the DNC to death.The Republicans are armed so... they can take care of their own issues.

keimil
keimil

If they steal the votes from Bernie,   I will make sure they lose BIG TIME with every nickel I have and  will vote for the biggest Jerk I can think of from the opposite party.  I am an independent and here is  how I see it.  I want social security protected along with Medicare.  Retired 65 year old male. First Choice is Bernie Sanders. Scenarios or "What ifs :  1). Bernie Wins and the Kock Sucker Congress and Senate allow him to do nothing. 2).   Hillary gets elected and the KockSucker Congress and Senate allow her to do nothing.  3).  Trump gets elected and the Congress and Senate allow him to nothing.  4).   Canadian Cruz and his Wall Street Looter Robber wife - Heidi- get the White House, he goes after Social Security and Medicare and  320 million non-rich Americans begin the revolution to lynch all lobbyists and get their pitchforks and chase the millionaires  and the Canadian Cruz tribe around attempting to change their crooked minds. If by chance the Dems,  wake up and fire every Republican Congressman and replace the 34 Senators this time- then the winner might get some legislation through the Washington Sewer. Otherwise the Republicans ( excluding Trump) are sworn to the 4 core Kock Sucker Libertarian Evil deeds- exchanged for campaign bribes- to destroy America ( Donald Excluded- he is rich). 1). Destroy Social Security, 2).Destroy Medicare, 3).  Destroy Medicaid for the indigent, 4).  Eliminate all Healthcare for Americans. 5). Pollute every river and water source throughout America.

Eric Ridley
Eric Ridley

Third party ticket what do you think

Rhonda Bateman
Rhonda Bateman

This had best not happen or it will be the end of the GOP and the beginning of a revolution in this country. The cheating is going to end.

Sunil Sakhalkar
Sunil Sakhalkar

exactly, plus he may be able to demand part of the campaign contributions that he received that has to share with DNC

Ursula Kavaliauskas
Ursula Kavaliauskas

This promises to be an absolutely thrilling roller coaster of a ride! Hopefully we won't all get killed as the wheels come off the track and our grand oooooo turns into oh-no! We have fastened our seat belts and are in for the duration. Too bad ringmaster Trump has coaxed so many people into his carnival tent where everyone is enjoying the lions roar. Give him enough time and power, and those lions will leap into the audience and start ripping people's throats!

Letitia Pepper
Letitia Pepper

More and more people are registering as "declines to state." Maybe we can simply get rid of the party system and people can vote for who they individually want, instead of for someone a group of insiders has chosen.  The party system is not part of the Constitution.

Frank Visone
Frank Visone

been saying this for a month now. The only reason Jeb is still in the hunt is because he is going to get the delegate votes. The establishment wants him to win.

Dawn Smith Ames
Dawn Smith Ames

im sorry but Sanders is the the biggest idiot since Ofama

NealBlaiseSalogar
NealBlaiseSalogar

Says the moron with the inability to capitalize or use proper punctuation about a former editor of the Harvard law review. No need to apologize honey, no one cares what your dumb ass says.

SeeCraig
SeeCraig

I don't support the duopoly because they are both corrupt patronage systems. They control the primary process. I'm a former Democrat who attempted to run as a presidential delegate and, later, Democratic State Committee. They use rules and patronage to control the process. It's why I'm now a Green and it's why I only vote for alternative parties that I can trust.

Cindy Lewis
Cindy Lewis

They will regret doing so. We the people are sick of their games. Bernie Sanders 2016 :)

Robert Moulton
Robert Moulton

Don't doubt it for a minute. No wonder people don't bother to exercise the franchise.

Kathy Brown
Kathy Brown

And this is suppose to be a surprise?? Keep in mind folks, obama wants to give ILLEGAL immigrants the right to vote. Our country is in soooo much trouble. The people are the ones who should have the say as to who THEY want for president.

Margie Murrow
Margie Murrow

Both of them are angry men I am voting for a woman with patience and perseverance, Hillary!!!!

Jackie Pitts Euer
Jackie Pitts Euer

It is all very crooked, now, and no one cares what the population wants - they parties just want to further their "agendas....." Then, there are the lobbyists and the power-hungry, greedy legislators (I know, there are some honest ones) - Lord, help us...

Justin Ashbrook
Justin Ashbrook

#PresidentPaul will win Iowa but I agree the establishment might screw with the votes to have Jeb Bush win like they did in 2012.

Lisa Baker
Lisa Baker

Melvin Morgan what could possibly make you think that Trump could or even wants to "break the strangle hold" of giant corporations. That is exactly what he IS. Things can get worse, much worse... With Trump.

Chip McTiernan
Chip McTiernan

If Bernie wins the nomination fair and square and then the DNC tries to steal it by using superdelegates to nominate Hillary, Bernie will have every justification to run as an independent. He would take all his supporters, many Dems, lots of other independents and probably quite a few disgusted republicans along for the ride. That would be historical, and actually give him a chance to form coalitions with both the GOP and Democrats in the house and senate without having to call himself an insider.

SeeCraig
SeeCraig

It won't be legally possible for Bernie to run as an independent as the independent petition deadlines in nearly all states will have passed by the time of the convention.