Independents, Minor Parties Shape Colo. Governor's Race Going into Election Day

image
Danielle BalderasDanielle Balderas
Published: 03 Nov, 2014
2 min read

With Election Day just one day away, Colorado’s gubernatorial race is in a dead heat between incumbent John Hickenlooper (D) and Republican challenger Bob Beauprez. A recent poll conducted by PPD found 45 percent of likely voters support Hickenlooper while 44 percent support Beauprez. With a margin of error of 3.5 percent, this puts the race in a statistical tie.

Independent candidate Mike Dunafon is polling at 1 percent of the vote, as is Libertarian Mathew Hess. Green Party candidate Harry Hempy is polling at 2 percent. In the PPD poll, these third-party candidates hold 4 percent of the vote, making their performance a potentially decisive factor in who comes out on top.

However, a new poll just released by Quinnipiac shows Beauprez with a 5-point lead over Hickenlooper (45 to 40). Quinnipiac reports independent voters are split 38-38 between Hickenlooper and Beauprez.

According to Quinnipiac, “Just six days before Election Day, 88 percent of Colorado likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 12 percent say they might change their mind.” This 12 percent will be crucial to deciding the hotly contested gubernatorial seat, and the third-party candidates will play a large role in determining Colorado's next governor.

Former Governor Bill Ritter Jr. (D) said in an interview with The Washington Post:

“I don’t think [Colorado] fits into a color-coded scheme...It’s a pragmatic state that is hard to couch in terms of red, purple or blue. It depends so much on the candidate and how they can resonate.”

As it stands, the polls oscillate between Harry Hempy (G) and Mathew Hess (L) as the leading third-party candidates, with Mike Dunafon consistently polling at 1 percent. In September, an NBC News/Marist poll showed third-party candidates commanding 9 percent of the vote, but just last week they released new results showing support for third-party candidates waning.

As the election nears, some voters who prefer a third-party candidate will jump ship to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate given the close race. If Libertarian voters stay loyal to Dunafon or Hess, Beauprez's chances may dim. Similarly, Hempy's supporters may have found Hickenlooper more favorable if the race was one-on-one.

Image from left to right: John Hickenlooper (D), Harry Hempy (G), Matthew Hess (L), Bob Beauprez (R), Mike Dunafon (I)

You Might Also Like

Will the Texas Republican Party be Successful Where the Hawaiian Democratic Party Failed?
Will the Texas Republican Party be Successful Where the Hawaiian Democratic Party Failed?
The Republican Party of Texas (RPT) is suing Secretary of State Jane Nelson in an effort to close the state’s primary elections to party members only – a move that the Democratic Party of Hawaii (DPH) tried back in 2013 in its state and failed. ...
05 Sep, 2025
-
3 min read
Supreme Court building.
Retired Attorney Takes Voting Rights Case All the Way to the Supreme Court -- By Himself
The next big voting rights case the Supreme Court of the United States could consider wasn’t filed by the ACLU, the League of Women Voters, Common Cause, or another household name when it comes to voter rights. ...
09 Sep, 2025
-
5 min read
congress flag
Poll: 82% of Americans Want Redistricting Done by Independent Commission, Not Politicians
There may be no greater indication that voters are not being listened to in the escalating redistricting war between the Republican and Democratic Parties than a new poll from NBC News that shows 8-in-10 Americans want the parties to stop....
10 Sep, 2025
-
3 min read