Economist Peter Schiff Forecasts Second Crisis to Hit Around 2013

Peter-Schiff333-e1358451318295
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INTERACTIONS

What do you do when one of the very few economic analysts to predict the financial crisis would strike in ’07 or ’08 says another, even more catastrophic economic collapse will hit the United States economy in 2013 or 2014?

Do a YouTube query for “peter schiff was right” and you’ll find dozens of videos with montages of the investment broker and financial commentator making accurate predictions about the financial crisis that struck in 2007 while other analysts not only disagree, but insinuate that Schiff’s predictions were completely nuts.

Do you think Peter Schiff will be right again?

In one particular video, uploaded in November of 2008 and clocking in at over 2 million views, it’s easy to see what an independent voice Peter Schiff is in the realm of economic analysis and forecasting. Schiff– a Republican who sought out his party’s nomination during Connecticut’s 2010 U.S. Senate race, a self-described capitalist who believes in free-market economics, and who says he’s proud to be a member of “the 1%”– spends most of that particular video montage arguing with many respected Republican analysts as they deride his predictions and say that the economic boom would continue with no end in sight. Watch:

An independent mindset is an important characteristic not just for politicians, but for journalists, analysts, and commentators, and in Peter Schiff’s case, independence from party-line groupthink has apparently allowed him to see and understand things that most others in his party missed.


In the exchange on Kudlow & Company at the beginning of the video above, former Reagan economic adviser Art Laffer (who justified the Reagan era tax cuts with the now famous Laffer Curve) scoffed at Peter Schiff’s prediction that America would be hit by a bad recession in either ’07 or ’08. Laffer said:

“The United States economy has never been in better shape…I think Peter’s just totally off base…I just don’t know where he’s getting his stuff.”

What follows is a series of such exchanges with other prominent conservative and Republican economic commentators like Nixon and Ford speechwriter Ben Stein. All of them could hardly conceal their disdain for Schiff’s bearish economic predictions.

But Peter Schiff was right. He said:

The Prediction: “I think it’s going to be pretty bad, and whether it starts in ’07 or ’08 I think is immaterial, and I also think it’s going to last, not just for quarters but for years.”

How did Peter Schiff know this would happen? According to his view, what was the problem?

The Problem: “See the basic problem with the U.S. economy is we have too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production and saving, and what’s going to happen is the American consumer is basically going to stop consuming and start rebuilding his savings, especially when he sees his home equity evaporate, and when you have the economy 70% consumption, you can’t address those imbalances without a recession.”

And here’s what Schiff recommended as the solution:

The Solution: “You know, rather than the recession being resisted, it should be embraced, because the disease is all this debt-financed consumption. The cure is that we stop consuming and start saving and producing again, and that’s a recession. And sometimes, you know, medicine tastes bad, but you’ve got to swallow it.”

So what do you do when one of the very few economic analysts to predict the financial crisis would strike in ’07 or ’08 says another, even more catastrophic economic collapse will hit the United States economy in 2013 or 2014?

If you’re smart, you’ll listen– at least to hear him out. Forbes reported this spring that the ever-bearish and independent Schiff is forecasting another economic crisis that will strike at the very heart of the U.S. economy, sweeping through the monetary system itself and precipitating a massive U.S. dollar and Treasury bond crisis. His analysis of the underlying economic problem and solution is essentially the same as it was when he predicted the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Again, Schiff has a view on what the problem is: ” , but we are never going to be able to pay them back.” Not only that, but Schiff says when the economic crisis hits, your money might not be safe.

While most major banks have passed the Federal Reserve’s strenuous stress tests to ensure their viability in the event of another economic catastrophe, Schiff says those tests are predicated on another massive decline in home equity and real estate prices, which was the last bubble to pop, not the next one: “The Fed didn’t ask the banks to stress test a big drop in the bond market because that’s what coming, and the banks would fail that.”

His solution? “The more you delay it, the bigger it will be, so we need to raise interest rates during the recession to confront the inefficiencies.” It’s not just unconventional, it’s the exact opposite of what most analysts on both sides of the partisan divide would recommend and flies in the face of the Federal Reserve’s management of the crisis by frantically holding interest rates down to what is functionally a zero percent rate.

Schiff argues the easy money policies and the debt-based economy is what caused the problem in the first place and more of the same will only make it worse. Instead, Schiff believes a recession is a necessary transition of the economy from a debt and consumption-based economy to a production-based economy that creates real wealth and real jobs. He even suggests that the bad medicine doesn’t have to be all bad: “In a deflation[ary recession], real wages will rise because the cost of goods will fall faster.”

Peter Schiff’s advice may be unconventional, but his record of remarkable economic prescience makes him an independent voice worth listening to and he isn’t shy about saying so:

“All of the people who were 100% wrong [back in ‘08] are saying that everything’s OK [now]. I am telling them they didn’t solve the problem and are making it so much worse. I didn’t get lucky, I just understood the problem, and we are going to get another big one coming soon.”

The question is: Do you think Peter Schiff will be right again?

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  1. kushal kumar CONCLUSION :-         " Downward trend in world  economy  is  likely to be   in mild form during  November, 2014 to April, 2015, to grow  somewhat intense during  May, 2015 to  October, 2015, becomes harsh during November, 2015 to July, 2016. Such areas of life as  minerals and metals, foodcrops,  energy resources , defence and security of nations are likely to bear the brunt of these trends.  Collective wisdom in decision making, communication systems, aviation industry,  and the cinema , music and TV industries   are also , in addition,  likely to be  touched by   these trends.  Countries or regions whose names begin with the letters B , E , EU,  N,  O, P, U or V may need to implement multilevel approach to challenges during this period".  This is the substance or salient feature of my article - " Stressful times ahead for world economy in 2015 and 2016"- published  online  on June 2, this year at Astrologyweekly.
  2. SGreenovich Most economists forcast problems, that is their job I think. Why would they ever talk about good times to come? No one would pay for it, not to mention its easy to see. Economists are here to warn people about the future preparation is the job of every individual. http://www.saalawoffice.com/practice_areas_2.html
  3. royjonathan Today's challenging investment markets require investors to make smart, rational financial decisions. http://www.mumsltd.co.uk/, Investors need to have a well-crafted financial plan, access to high-quality financial and investment products to implement that plan, and perhaps most important, manage their own emotional swings that are a natural part of having money exposed to volatility and risk.
  4. InvincibleAce anybody got an idea when the exchange rate hike  in india(inr to usd) be gone.,??
  5. Jeffery Sikes With Bernanke leaving his post in Jan of 2014, this stimulus $85b/mo and its effects on the markets will be short lived. One thing is for certain however, a marked re-inflated by $1.02 tn in stimulus per year, is bound for a correction once that stimulus is no longer being provided. Investors know this and are simply figuring how long they can stay in the game and make maximum returns before the inevitable decline occurs. Those with retirement accounts (401k’s and the like) will be the ones who will feel the brunt of the losses in 2014 as the market corrects due to the loss of stimulus. In this dicey game of economic control, the worst that could occur is that Bernanke’s replacement would result to raising interest rates at the wrong time and too rapidly, as there is a tipping point towards hyperinflation which cannot be avoided once crossed. The third factor which is being currently ignored is the loss of OPEC oil transactions which will come when the Middle East oil business transfers to Iranian/Russian control, which is the game being played out now in the Middle East. Loss of OPEC transactions will seriously devalue the US dollar, exacerbating any interest rates increased by the FED. Finally we have the debt increase for the Federal Government which will come up for discussion again in Q4 2013, just prior to Mr Bernanke’s exit. All in all its going to be a very dicey ride in 2014 and beyond for US investors. Folks should be on their toes in Q4 and watching their investments diligently. Consideration needs to be given to exit plans which will provide the least foreseeable impact, should the assembly of coming events prove to be material.
  6. Dave Unvert the stimulus will not stop, instead, it will first be announced that it will be slowing. Markets will drop, then come back some. Opportunity. Then, the stimulus will actually be cut some, another drop, another bounce off bottom. If done correctly, and slow enough, the fears and market retreat may be minimal and short lived. The market may peak this year prior to the END, but it could have many dips and swings thru the next couple years. They will NOT stop stimulus in the way that crashes the market.
  7. IPBS Exam Top Cities to Look for Elevator Installers, Repairers Job Openings based on Popularity of Demand Compared to Other U. Banking jobs, from among these lots, have been the most favored among the young generation. It's good to keep in mind that while it's possible to enter these careers without a degree, you'll often receive higher pay or have more advancement opportunities available if you do have a degree or some other additional training. On the 21st, a film based on Max Brooks' novel of the same name and starring Brad Pitt hits theaters, World War Z. What would happen if the town you live in is suddenly cut off from the rest of the world by a transparent dome that mysteriously appears.
  8. Gregory Grigoriou Its so easy to see that wages are flat or declining. Health care costs, building costs, energy costs, education costs are rising. The country has basically doubled down on the 1% hoping that it will trickle down, but the middle class has little going for it. Corporations are not propping up health care plans the way they once did. They run from pensions. Universities are raising tuitions at a time when students cannot afford it. All of this equals a weak or shrinking middle class. I don't think there is any singular event that can result in an out right "crash" but rather the economy will continue to limp along with no real recovery in site. THis is what happens when you attach a profit motive to such basic necessities like education and healthcare and energy. Retail and manfucturing has no chance when the average family has nothing left after paying huge education/healthcare/energy bills. THis is just common sense, no prophet needed. It's simply socialism for the top dogs and the rest of us duke it out in the free market.
  9. Dave Unvert Greg, you are so right on the first part but so "mislead" I will say and not use the 'brainwashed' synonym I frequently dole out. The "Profit Motive" is exactly what made this country the dominant country in the world. The reason that poor people in the USA are freaking wealthy beyond belief in the eyes of billions of third world citizens. When you NARROW the companies down by limiting competition, such as not letting health insurers cross state lines, or not letting online health care companies compete in the Obamacare debacle...you raise prices significantly. Now, I am not naive and think that businesses are altruistic. But they do serve their employees and their shareholders of which most of us are one, the other or both. Also, they follow the laws, and the laws are being corrupted and manipulated by YOUR GOVERNMENT. The Lawmakers as we call them made the rules that business lives by. You can blame ONE ENTITY...the government. With a few exceptions like breaking up monopolies in emerging markets, the government raises costs, prices, and stifles the potential of a country. ALL BOATS FLOAT...and thank God, they don't all float evenly. Where the harder you work, the smarter you are, or any other things INCLUDING LUCK can help you distance yourself from the lower levels of subsistence. Great Strides have been made by greedy people creating a service or technology and wanting to profit from it.
  10. Dick Blast Well you blew your first comment on the interwebz. Better luck with the next one Kavin. Or Claude.
36 comments
kushal kumar
kushal kumar

CONCLUSION :-         " Downward trend in world  economy  is  likely to be   in mild form during 

November, 2014 to April, 2015, to grow  somewhat intense during  May, 2015

to  October, 2015, becomes harsh during November, 2015 to July, 2016.

Such areas of life as  minerals and metals, foodcrops,  energy resources , defence and security of nations are likely to bear the brunt of these trends. 

Collective wisdom in decision making, communication systems, aviation industry,  and the cinema , music and TV industries   are also , in addition,  likely to be  touched by   these trends.

 Countries or regions whose names begin with the letters B , E , EU,  N,  O, P, U or V may need to implement multilevel approach to challenges during this period".

 This is the substance or salient feature of my article - " Stressful times ahead for world economy in 2015 and 2016"- published  online  on June 2, this year at Astrologyweekly.

SGreenovich
SGreenovich

Most economists forcast problems, that is their job I think. Why would they ever talk about good times to come? No one would pay for it, not to mention its easy to see. Economists are here to warn people about the future preparation is the job of every individual.

http://www.saalawoffice.com/practice_areas_2.html


InvincibleAce
InvincibleAce

anybody got an idea when the exchange rate hike  in india(inr to usd) be gone.,??

Jeffery Sikes
Jeffery Sikes

With Bernanke leaving his post in Jan of 2014, this stimulus $85b/mo and its effects on the markets will be short lived. One thing is for certain however, a marked re-inflated by $1.02 tn in stimulus per year, is bound for a correction once that stimulus is no longer being provided. Investors know this and are simply figuring how long they can stay in the game and make maximum returns before the inevitable decline occurs.

Those with retirement accounts (401k’s and the like) will be the ones who will feel the brunt of the losses in 2014 as the market corrects due to the loss of stimulus. In this dicey game of economic control, the worst that could occur is that Bernanke’s replacement would result to raising interest rates at the wrong time and too rapidly, as there is a tipping point towards hyperinflation which cannot be avoided once crossed.

The third factor which is being currently ignored is the loss of OPEC oil transactions which will come when the Middle East oil business transfers to Iranian/Russian control, which is the game being played out now in the Middle East. Loss of OPEC transactions will seriously devalue the US dollar, exacerbating any interest rates increased by the FED.

Finally we have the debt increase for the Federal Government which will come up for discussion again in Q4 2013, just prior to Mr Bernanke’s exit. All in all its going to be a very dicey ride in 2014 and beyond for US investors. Folks should be on their toes in Q4 and watching their investments diligently. Consideration needs to be given to exit plans which will provide the least foreseeable impact, should the assembly of coming events prove to be material.

IPBS Exam
IPBS Exam

Top Cities to Look for Elevator Installers, Repairers Job Openings based on Popularity of Demand Compared to Other U.

Banking jobs, from among these lots, have been the most favored among the young generation.

It's good to keep in mind that while it's possible to enter these careers

without a degree, you'll often receive higher pay or have more advancement opportunities available if you do have a degree or some other additional training. On the 21st, a film based on Max Brooks' novel of the same name and starring Brad Pitt hits theaters, World War Z.

What would happen if the town you live in is suddenly cut off from the rest of

the world by a transparent dome that mysteriously appears.

Gregory Grigoriou
Gregory Grigoriou

Its so easy to see that wages are flat or declining. Health care costs, building costs, energy costs, education costs are rising. The country has basically doubled down on the 1% hoping that it will trickle down, but the middle class has little going for it. Corporations are not propping up health care plans the way they once did. They run from pensions. Universities are raising tuitions at a time when students cannot afford it. All of this equals a weak or shrinking middle class. I don't think there is any singular event that can result in an out right "crash" but rather the economy will continue to limp along with no real recovery in site. THis is what happens when you attach a profit motive to such basic necessities like education and healthcare and energy. Retail and manfucturing has no chance when the average family has nothing left after paying huge education/healthcare/energy bills. THis is just common sense, no prophet needed. It's simply socialism for the top dogs and the rest of us duke it out in the free market.

DIY Woodwok Plans
DIY Woodwok Plans

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Jesse
Jesse

The problem with Petter Shiff is that he looks at eh negatives only and ignores teh good fundaments so his predictions are always hte worse case scenario, not necessairily the most likely one.

There was some deleveraing. Consumer debt isnt as high as it was in 2007 atm. Corporate balance sheets are the best they have ever been, the depressed housing market (still below average in prices and construction) has lots of room to grow and create jobs.

Lets also not forget that the recent energy boom in the US is quickly reducing trade-deficits and supporting many industries

Lastly, the boom from 2002-2007 was all based on credit. But this time were getting more manufacturing growth/exports we didnt last time (maybe because of weaker dollar)

There are many imbalances in teh economy that are dangerous, but you also have to look at the positive fundamanetals here as well to get a balanced prediction. I see a collapse as a possible scenario but only if everything goes wrong and none of the good fundamentals take grasp. I do not believe it is hte most likely scenario!

Ninon
Ninon

Hello, I think your site might be having browser compatibility issues.

When I look at your blog in Opera, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some

overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up!

Other then that, very good blog!

andrew neff
andrew neff

I could not agree more. What will make this one in 2013 or 2014 even worse is the currency crisis. All the economic powers are wanting to get away from using the mismanaged dollar. We will not be able to print our way out of the recession or depression of 2013/14.

Patrick
Patrick

Peter Schiff is right with his prediction of a more severe economic collapse to be due in 2013-14.

What he is wrong about are the triggers for this collapse. Nobody cares about national debt levels as long as GDP is growing and there is confidence that debt servicing will be honored. Look at Bond prices in Japan, the US or Germany to see a rebuttal of that simplistic argument.

What you should care about is the price of oil in particular, and the price of energy in general. Look at the oil price prior to the Lehman collapse and consider that having to fill your car with gas and heating your home takes precedence to any discretionary spending.

Oil prices are too damn high, and reducing govermental debt levels to zero will make not the tiniest bit of difference. You'd have to be pretty dumb anyway not to realize that debt on a national or global base cannot be repaid. It can only be shifted unto another pair of shoulders. That's irrespective of the type of money involved, be it fiat, gold or something else entirely.

Dave Unvert
Dave Unvert

Absolutely. Combine this analysis of the problem, AND then add in the fact that 75 million Baby Boomers are scaling back spending and ramping up saving for retirement now. Downsizing homes and draining SS and Health Care funds. The spending binge is OVER...and we have almost a decade more of way down, a little up, way down. Dow 5,000!! Or Dow 9000...one of the two, depending on how Obama makes the problem worse in real terms..cause the dow is just one aspect of the crash coming.

dalas
dalas

n many countries a higher standard of living than our parents is practically a birthright.

As the US economy begins to disintegrate, civil unrest may become increasingly violent and widespread. The anticipation of massive unrest may be the real reason why the Department of Homeland Security has contracted with a Halliburton subsidiary to build massive new domestic detention camps …….

Paying interest on unpaid interest will soon accelerate the debt crisis.

read more about what will happen in decades ahead at the most amazing secret book ever published here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/105212391/The-Battle-of-Armageddon-WWIII-in-2012-Protocols-of-Zion-Audiobook-economic-and-energy-crises-by-Annafarahmand-lord-Lindsey

Jeffery Sikes
Jeffery Sikes

As many economists like Mr Schiff, they all tend to focus on existing economic conditions being the cause of the coming collapse. However the cause is a mixture of local events in the Untied States (shift toward applied global Marxism-Leninism), the worlds reserve currency, and events occurring in the Middle East. The measuring stick is the Middle East. The events on the ground in the Middle East (Mr Obama's not wars), have been taking place in order to surround Saudi Arabia. The idea was to shift control in the region to Sunni dominant control. That plan will backfire (is backfiring) and the dominant control is being given to the Shia based Muslim Brotherhood. Once Syria falls (and it will) , the Russian backed Shia will assume dominate control of Syria, Libya, and, Iraq. They already hold Iran, Egypt and other small nations. The result will be a Saudi Arabia which is surrounded by Shia dominant nations (allies to Russia). This is important to understand as it provides the situation which will result in the largest single cause for financial loss, the West has ever experienced. When that exchange occurs and when Saudi falls as a result of being surrounded, The US will be ousted from OPEC as the worlds reserve currency for oil transactions. That loss will result in 5 - 6 trillion in transactions moving out of the US dollar in into another or other currencies (Russian ruble for sure and maybe the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen). This loss of transactions will shake America to its core as its dollar will fall in value by 40% to 50% almost over night. The markets will crash and panic will ensue. The activity will dwarf all historical market failures combined. Inflation due to the loss of the value of the dollar will occur rapidly and financial institutions will be unable to intervene. This will occur within the coming 24 months. Those wise to the action will survive, those who ignore this truth will fall into the crowd of financial misery which will loom heavily upon all America. Mr Obama will be powerless to do anything to improve the situation as it will be his policies which allowed the event to occur in the first place. The good news is He and all his cohorts, will be ousted from office in the United States, permanently. Since recorded time, there will no occur a financial failure so great and so global as the one coming in the next 24 months, and it will all be laid at the feet of the instigators (Progressives, Socialists, Communists). In short order, the globalization which the socialists have almost achieved, will rapidly fall apart in financial failure. Countries will dissolve global organizations and opt for sovereign solutions to their own problems. The US will come back but only at a fraction of its current GDP. Expect the real GDP to be functional in the 6 - 7 trillion dollar range. Those looking to get wealth rapidly, best invest in Iraqi and Iran currency while its relatively low. Once the coup de tat occurs, those currencies will rise rapidly in value, especially Iran (Persia).

saran
saran

In many countries a higher standard of living than our parents is practically a birthright.

As the US economy begins to disintegrate, civil unrest may become increasingly violent and widespread. The anticipation of massive unrest may be the real reason why the Department of Homeland Security has contracted with a Halliburton subsidiary to build massive new domestic detention camps …….

Paying interest on unpaid interest will soon accelerate the debt crisis.

read more about what will happen in decades ahead at the most amazing secret book ever published here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/105212391/The-Battle-of-Armageddon-WWIII-in-2012-Protocols-of-Zion-Audiobook-economic-and-energy-crises-by-Annafarahmand-lord-Lindsey

moneybuilder
moneybuilder

agree 100% peter.....he should be financial minister....government should spend less....not rise tax for people to burden with....

Claude
Claude

Hi there i am kavin, its my first time to commenting anywhere, when

i read this paragraph i thought i could also make comment due to

this sensible piece of writing.

Joseph Nguyen
Joseph Nguyen

I am agreed with Mr. Peter Schiff 100%. The problems was started back in early 1980 when were the corporations outsourcing manufactures to Asian and Middle East countries. This process is help for all the rich people to be reacher but in another hand, trade off was less and less jobs stay in US slowly for the last over three decades. For American people, less Jobs make more people depend in Federal and States benefits, less spending, more violents, crime, thief, less education, and more homeless. For Federal and States American Government, collected less taxes, pay more for benefits, more government workers (non productive) since 2001 and the most was spending of trillians of dollars was in military. Its was a long story which start from the early of 1960 when most of the countries in the World had agreed to used American dollar as a "Petro Dollar" for Crude Oil trading. In the late 1980, saddam hussein was one of the first tried to drop the petro-dollar for petrolium trading. That was the first kick-off from the Bush Aministration back in the early 1990. Start from there, it were more and more countries drop US dollar (Petrolium Dollar) for petrolium trading. Now, we was more than 16 trillans dollars shorted, it is equivalent to each of working american family about $100,000 dollars in debt (not count unemployments). But this situation are continuing getting worst and worst unless those corporations are bring the jobs back home. But in another through, for rich people, they can live anywhere on earth. United States, India, French, England, or China where ever save them money in production or runing the business, they will stay. So we are all know that start next year, 2013 more tax does'nt matter what is going to happen, more business down turn, more unemployments, more crime - violent - thief, less spending for American people. This is very logical way to see our American future. Goodluck to your all.

Steve
Steve

“All of the people who were 100% wrong [back in ‘08] are saying that everything’s OK [now]. I am telling them they didn’t solve the problem and are making it so much worse. I didn’t get lucky, I just understood the problem, and we are going to get another big one coming soon.”

Please Peter give us a list of all those "All of the people who were 100% wrong" so we can point the finger. Should be a top 30 most accurate economists on the web ( which you would be in the Top 5) and a list of the bottom 10000 so we can predict who should be unemployed for 2013. Please fire these idiots so they would just shut up....Happy New Year!

ron
ron

keep voting foe the scum liberals........this country will collapse

Roger Ford
Roger Ford

Since derivatives have certainly not gone away, Conservatism in the United States seems to focus on trading paper rather than on building companies that make decent products, build reputations, pay tax in America, and promote a pleasant lifestyle for people who work for them, and education as sponsored by the government has many problems, especially inculcation of a desire for depth.

Yep, I think Peter Schiff will be right. Now I will check out Jim Jubak, who helped me to avoid losing much $ in the mortgage fiasco.

RHF

patel
patel

This man is absolutely right. See Indians and Chinese, they are just developing in last couple of decades. They are small economy, they have their own problems like high pupulation, 50-60 years of independance etc etc... but the important factor is 1) They save around 30% of their income 2) Interest rate is high so no nonsense expense or investment 3) there are CRR and SLR in banking system of India where 22% money always lies with RBI which will never allow to bankrupt any Bank..

if u compare words of this man with India and China... then they are doing all right things and they are making their economy stronger and stronger day by day...

other then this they are now buying gold and silver. India has been importing around 1000 MT of gold every year from last 3 decades... today 1000 MT valued at around $60Bn. so its total $1.80 Tn value of gold in Indian houseshold... where as India's GDP is just $1.6 Tn. China now started buying gold...

peter is right, if USA and Europe do not start saving they will never come out from the recession.... I am living in India and what i see in USA? in last ten years there is only apple... apple... apple... i phone, Ipad, Ipod... and facebook... young people are spending on such unproductive gadgates like anything... this mentality needs to change....

Bruce Mccoy
Bruce Mccoy

Of course he's right, and I think most people feel it, they just don't have enough knowledge to understand what's happening.

Blake Bunch
Blake Bunch

I think Schiff is definitely on the right track. The problem has not been "fixed" since the financial collapse of '08. Short-term solutions are not the way to solve a long-term issue (a major one at that).

Dave Unvert
Dave Unvert

the stimulus will not stop, instead, it will first be announced that it will be slowing. Markets will drop, then come back some. Opportunity. Then, the stimulus will actually be cut some, another drop, another bounce off bottom. If done correctly, and slow enough, the fears and market retreat may be minimal and short lived. The market may peak this year prior to the END, but it could have many dips and swings thru the next couple years. They will NOT stop stimulus in the way that crashes the market.

Dave Unvert
Dave Unvert

Greg, you are so right on the first part but so "mislead" I will say and not use the 'brainwashed' synonym I frequently dole out. The "Profit Motive" is exactly what made this country the dominant country in the world. The reason that poor people in the USA are freaking wealthy beyond belief in the eyes of billions of third world citizens. When you NARROW the companies down by limiting competition, such as not letting health insurers cross state lines, or not letting online health care companies compete in the Obamacare debacle...you raise prices significantly. Now, I am not naive and think that businesses are altruistic. But they do serve their employees and their shareholders of which most of us are one, the other or both. Also, they follow the laws, and the laws are being corrupted and manipulated by YOUR GOVERNMENT. The Lawmakers as we call them made the rules that business lives by. You can blame ONE ENTITY...the government. With a few exceptions like breaking up monopolies in emerging markets, the government raises costs, prices, and stifles the potential of a country. ALL BOATS FLOAT...and thank God, they don't all float evenly. Where the harder you work, the smarter you are, or any other things INCLUDING LUCK can help you distance yourself from the lower levels of subsistence. Great Strides have been made by greedy people creating a service or technology and wanting to profit from it.

Dave Unvert
Dave Unvert

Jesse, you are completely correct with Peters viewpoint. Aside from what I stated above regarding the long term outlook and the Baby Boomers, this Obamacare thing will really nail our coffin closed. business will get 2 part timers to do a fulltimers job, propping up the Gov employment stats but creating a serf class of citizens. (raise the min wage they say the offset this problem), and the sheer costs to people, companies, doctors, you name it...is going to be really F'ed up!!

A
A

I think there's a good chance the economy tanks this fall 2013. I've been seeing more and more stories of places laying off folks to get their employment numbers down to avoid the obamacare penalty. A big player in the slow recovery has been employers not knowing what effect all these new regulations will have on their business' bottom lines. So I see a big dip this fall and there should start to be a recovery starting mid 2014 once companies have a better idea on how to skirt around or fund these new (wasteful) laws.

Dave Unvert
Dave Unvert

Ousted from the Petrol dollar standard will be HORRIFIC. And that is just another nail in the coffin.

Dick Blast
Dick Blast

Well you blew your first comment on the interwebz. Better luck with the next one Kavin. Or Claude.

Dave Unvert
Dave Unvert

???? What? Conservatism focused on what? You got it wrong my friend. Conservatives are the families. The small business owners. The middle of America. The LIberal Elites are who you are talking about. The WEALTH is in the hands of liberals...Gore, Pelosi etc. The wealth in congress are majority Dems. The Wall Street you speak of is the primary funding mechanism for the Democrat party. You got this one bassackwards.

Mhe She
Mhe She

Patel, your comment is absolutely spot on. Over-consuming Americans have pushed Apple Iphone and Ipad sales to statospheric levels and they still cannot see a problem! A massive college education debt, no income and they still buy a new iphone on Credit! We are laughed at for buying Gold!

shane
shane

Thats absolutely incorrect. If an entire economy just saves saves saves, no money would circulate. It would stagnate an economy. You need a correct equilibrium of income and expense.

The reason why India and China are doing so well is because the West buys everything of you. Once people in western countries start rebelling against governments because they are paying too much for everything, its when economies like India and China collapse.

Also because there's not enough land space to feed an ever growing population of India and China, you wont be able to feed your people, which means mass starvation, over crowding, pollution etc. You also account for most of the worlds corruption, and there is also not enough resources to accommodate for the rise of India and China. Your educated people are leaving countries and heading to the West, which means you will never invent your own technology, you just simply copy others. The Indian caste system is also alive and well, which is oppressive in all aspects.

India and China are countries heading for disaster.

Robert
Robert

Shane you are wrong about saying that saving would not circulate. How do you think interest rates drop naturally without the fed pumping money in the banks? thats right remember econ 101, more supply, decrease in price = more savings, more money in the bank, decrease in interest rates NATURALLY. What does low interest rate mean? more investments! So actually savings are the backbone of an economy. NOT SPENDING!

Mhe She
Mhe She

Shane, you are right to some extent about India and China issues. India and China have actually grown due to prolific American consumption on credit as so have have several other economies, but the party is almost over for everyone. The over-consumption was based on weak fundamentals. As Peter Schiff says rightly, a recession is necessary for the World economy to survive. Unfortunately, with the continuous printing money, it is difficult.