What Happens if Both California Tax-Hike Propositions Pass?
By Bob Morris | 09/14/2012 | California, Headline, Taxes | 7 Comments
Credit: umich.edu
Conventional wisdom says if voters approve both California tax-hike propositions in November, then the proposition with the highest number of votes wins and nullifies the other. However, under one scenario, if Propositions 30 and 38, which aim to fund education, both pass then non-overlapping parts of both might be valid. Courts and the Franchise Tax Board could then make the final decisions after inevitable court challenges and lawsuits.
The non-partisan Legislative Analyst’s Office says the proposition with the highest number of votes wins, but then hedges their opinion somewhat.
“Could pieces survive? That’s something that would need to be interpreted,” said Edgar Cabral, the principal fiscal and policy analyst for the LAO.
The California Federation of Teachers is a major backer of Prop 30. Their communications director Fred Glass said they might go to court if both measures pass and the situation warranted it. The state constitution says the highest vote getter in conflicting propositions wins but says nothing about non-conflicting measures in two measures that win. Further complicating this are provisions in both propositions nullifying measures in the other if both win and the other gets fewer votes.
The results here are not trivial. Prop 30, backed Gov. Jerry Brown, would raise sales tax by 0.25% and increase taxes for those with taxable incomes more than $250,000. Prop 38, backed by wealthy attorney and education advocate Molly Munger, raises taxes for most everyone on a sliding scale and uses 70% of revenues for schools and 30% to pay down debt.
Perhaps most crucially, if Prop 30 loses, then automatic “trigger cuts” of $5 billion to education will immediately take effect. Prop 30 will raise an estimated $6 billion a year, use much of the money to pay off obligations, and keep funding for schools at the same level. Prop 38 will bring in $10 billion and will boost spending for education.
Many education advocates are urging yes votes on Prop 30 and Prop 38 to insure that spending on education is not decimated. However, no one is quite sure what the outcome will be if both California tax-hike propositions pass.
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7 Comments
Justin
09.14.2012
People have been leaving for years. What happens if it passes is that it will just exacerbate the problem. More people fleeing to Texas, Dakotas and east coast where the government is more worried about lower taxes and doing their jobs efficiently, rather than stuffing more union pockets and funding out of control pensions and programs for everyone and their mother.
Lucas Eaves
09.14.2012
@lucaseaves
Justin, California will always have the weather to compensate.
Alex Gauthier
09.15.2012
@alexg
Have to agree with you on that Lucas
Justin
09.16.2012
I definitely agree. California politicians ruined an amazing state. If only I could pick up the scenery and drop it somewhere else with reasonable people. Though as great as Cali is weather and view wise, its not the ONLY place in the world that looks pretty, and at some point, the scenery is drowned out by everything else. That time had simply come for us, and based personal anecdote (not worth too much argumentatively, I know) a lot of other people as well.
Michael Higham
09.14.2012
@michaelhigham
Both propositions will probably take votes from one another, potential tax supporters will split between the measures leaving both weaker. I know Brown’s initiative was already a compromise but maybe Brown and Munger should have came to one conclusion on one measure. I’m not sure how viable that would have been, but it’s just a thought. I also read Kim Tso’s blog about the propositions and it’s great but I wish she included something about community college.
Karen McCulley
09.15.2012
Good work. Another way to look at this is in another blog with flow chart of what if.
See:http://kimtso.com/2012/09/05/prop-30-and-prop-38-a-voter-guide-for-parents/
milanmoravec
09.15.2012
@milanmoravec
The public’s UC Berkeley harvests family savings, Alumni money, taxes. Cal. is nationally ranked #1 public university total academic cost (resident) with Provost, Chancellor’s goal to ‘charge resident Californians higher tuition’. UC Berkeley tuition is rising faster than costs at other universities.
Cal ranked # 2 in faculty earning potential. Spending on salaries has increased 29% in last six years (Did you receive a 29% salary increase?). Believe it: Harvard College less costly
University of California negates the promise of equality of opportunity: access, affordability is farther and farther out of reach. Self-absorbed Chancellor Birgeneau, Provost Breslauer are outspoken for Cal. ‘charging residents much higher’ tuition.
Birgeneau ($450,000) Breslauer ($306,000) like to blame the politicians, since they stopped giving them their demanded funding. The ‘charge instate students higher tuition’ skyrocketed fees by an average 14% per year from 2006 to 2011-12 academic years. If Chancellor Provost had allowed fees to rise at the same rate of inflation over the past 10 years they would still be in reach of most middle income students. Breslauer Bergeneau increase disparities in higher education and defeat the promise of equality of opportunity.
Additional state tax funding must sunset. The sluggish economy and 10% unemployment devistate family savings. Simply asking for more taxes to fund expensive Cal.senior leadership, old inefficient higher education practices, excessive faculty staff compensation and burdensome bonuses, is not the answer.
UC Berkeley is to maximize access to the widest number of Californians at a reasonable cost. Birgeneau’s Breslauer’s ‘charge Californians higher tuition’ denies middle income families the transformative value of Cal.
The California dream: keep it alive and well. Fire (honorably retire) Provost George W Breslauer. Birgeneau resigned.
Opinions? UC Board of Regents [email protected] Calif. State Senators, Assembly members.