Swing State Florida May Tilt Toward GOP Candidate
By Faith Eischen | 07/10/2012 | Elections 2012, Headline, President | 2 Comments
Perhaps the most controversial swing state of all, Florida is on track to once again be a political battleground for presidential candidates in the November election. First Lady Michelle Obama will speak at a grassroots campaign event in Miami, Florida today. And although President Obama won the state by 3 points in 2008, there are a number of contributing factors that may influence the state to favor Mitt Romney.
Since 2008, Florida has suffered effects of a “sour economy,” after being hit by a “wave of home foreclosures“. In the 2010 “Red Wave” midterm elections, Republicans won the governorship, the open seat Senate race and four Congressional seats. For these reasons, President Obama standing in the state makes it uncertain he will have the same success as he did in 2008.
The Sunshine state also has a growing number of conservative retirees that will most likely vote for the GOP candidate. On the other hand, the state continues to grow in numbers among non-Cuban Hispanics, a demographic with which Democrats and President Obama perform exceptionally well.
Florida’s recent population growth led to the creation of a new Congressional district for 2012, and 41% of the new district’s voting-age is Hispanic.
Although the Republican Party typically views non-Cuban Hispanics as receptive to GOP economic and social views, these voters hesitate to fully support the party due to the Republican stance on illegal immigration. Mitt Romney’s campaign aims to garnish Hispanic support in Florida by shifting the focus from immigration to the importance of the economy and subsequently, jobs.
Despite Florida’s mostly Republican lawmakers, Romney faces challenges to make “real inroads among Hispanic voters.” In 2008, Cuban-Americans in Southern Florida strongly supported John McCain, but President Obama won 57% of the Florida, Hispanic vote, largely due to Puerto Rican and Latin American immigrants voters.
In reference to the non-Cuban Hispanics voting trend and the upcoming election, “[t]he question is, can the Republicans really change that?,” said Dario V. Morena, political scientist at Florida International University.
Recently, a USA Today/Gallop poll indicates Obama leading Romney 47% to 45% in key swing states, including Florida. The poll also concluded that Obama’s political ads are victorious in swaying swing state voters, so far. Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager, credits the success with the new information they included in the negative-ads.
According to USA Today:
Democratic ads have prompted voters to “take a look at [Romney’s] record” on job creation and as head of the private- equity firm Bain capital. Messina also credits a $25 million buy for a positive ad “about the challenges the President inherited and what we had to do move this country forward.”
Romney pollster Neil Newhouse calls the findings unsurprising. “It is expected to find that more voters say their views have changed about Mitt Romney; they simply don’t know him all that well,” he says.” On the other hand, there are few voters who are going to say their views have changed President Obama. They know him pretty damned well.”
Obama’s slight success is working to win back Democrats rather than winning over Independents or Republicans. 13% percent of Democrats said their minds were changed by ads, while only 9% of independents and 3% of Republicans said the same.
In 2000, Bush controversially won Florida by 5 points, and in 2004 won Florida with 52%. For President Obama’s 2008 election, he won the state by a 3 point margin, which Roll Call says “shows the Sunshine State’s GOP tilt, making it likely to swing back to presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney in a close election.”
Regardless, Florida is still considered a tossup concerning the combination of GOP state governmental influences and a growing non-Cuban Hispanic voter population.
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2 Comments
3rd Party Candidates
07.11.2012
we should all make our states swing states. Move our votes. Politicians won’t know what hit ‘em.
davefrancis
07.13.2012
@davefrancis
E-Verify ‘The Legal Workforce Act’ (H.R. 2885) although just voluntary at this time, is an electronic program operated by the Social Security Administration and Customs and Immigration Enforcement. —The last entity I would listen too is the Liberal Press, who have transferred their loyalty to hard core radical people like socialist George Soros? The mainstream media Editorial reeks of deceit and rhetoric, when it comes to illegal immigration. The progressives in the news media are especially dangerous. The liberals will lie and cheat, no matter the consequences to America. So it is with E-Verify, which they have demonized because, it actually flags illegal immigrants in the workplace and opens up jobs for U.S. citizens and residents. The liberals have been very predominant in using the influence of the press, to erect a barrier against Mandatory E-Verify, except they didn’t reckon on the growing masses of the TEA PARTY. Unlike the two main political parties the TEA PARTY will enforce all laws and statutes pertaining to illegal immigration, whereas the Dem’s and GOP tend to intentionally overlook such state ordinances as Sanctuary Cities and states like California?
REMEMBER THE TEA PARTY WILL ENFORCE ‘THE PEOPLE’S’ LAWS. THERE WILL BE NO PLEADINGS FOR ANY CRIMINAL ILLEGAL ALIEN, NO OBAMA BACKDOOR AMNESTIES, NO DREAM ACTS, NO SANCTUARY CITIES, NO CHAIN MIGRATION. E-VERIFICATION WOULD ALSO BE FULLY ENFORCED WITH STRINGENT PUNISHMENT, FOR THOSE WHO DON’T COMPLY? POTENTIAL PRESIDENT MITT ROMNEY BETTER STAY AWARE OF THE ‘TEA PARTY’ EMPOWERMENT, AS IF HE THINKS OF PLAYING ALONG IN THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION ISSUE, HE WILL BE RECOGNISED AS A FLIP-FLOPPER.
Even the House Speaker John Boehner has refused to bring up compulsory E-Verify for a House vote. Obviously he and his entrenched colleagues will not allow it anywhere near the Congress, as he and his fellow conspirators are subject to the corporate donations, to keep the old school corrupting our system of government. E-Verify is just one bill that must be passed to save the jobs of millions of low income Americans mainly.
The Independents, and uncountable numbers of delusional Democrats, Republicans are recognizing that the Lib-Democrats are out to win the grand price in November, but now millions of TEA PARTY people will not fall into their political trap. This is the same with photo ID to vote, who have ruthless personages as U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and the Kings court caterwauling ‘voter Suppression’, when all the TEA PARTY requests is a fair and equitable election. Surf the internet under ‘Voter Fraud’ and you will discover the hundreds of cases of this diabolical use of our most trusted right of American citizens, being compromised by NON CITIZENS, felons and illegal aliens. This began with inception of canvassing provided by ACORN organization, which signed up just about anybody and were eventually caught and 11 states are resolving this criminal issue.
Another law that remains quietly concealed from the public is the Rep. Steve Kings THE BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP ACT (H.R.140). An astronomical amount of money is being extracted from every taxpaying American that supports the annual arrival of an estimated 400.000 smuggled babies into the United States. They are concealed in their Mother’s womb and once here becomes the taxpayers charge. These females although illegal that once they set foot on American soil, their offspring receive a free delivery, free heath care and a free education, thanks to unfunded mandates handed down by the courts. The only salvation from this misjudged law is to amend the 14th amendment, which an only child with one citizen parent qualifies for instant citizenship. Illegal alien parents are well aware that if they smuggle the unborn child through an international airport terminal or past the U.S. Border Patrol, they are free and clear as the misguided law stands today.
With only four months to go before D-Day us the voter only has that one slender chance of changing the direction of our country. With the democrats cocooned with the Liberals, the only promise is uncontrolled ‘Tax and Spend’ so elevating the 16 Trillion dollar deficit we owe the rest of the worlds investors. Then under the Republicans, a lesser of the evils, but even so they must be controlled by the TEA PARTY LEADERSHIP.
Anybody who contradicts the writings in the U.S. Constitution, who is adverse to a real border fence, who is unconcerned about the 20 million plus illegal aliens already here or the harbinger of a further invasion from Central and South America needs to be relieved of their seats in Washington, not excluding the majority of legislators in Congress, state governors as Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, Jerry Brown of California, and Mayors as Rahm Emanuel of Chicago, Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles—all must be replaced by TEA PARTY MEMBERS. All the pro-illegal immigrant law makers are destroying this sovereign country, as they are well aware that illegal aliens vote. That is why Americans, Hispanic, Latin, Black, White Asian and others should join one of the thousands of local chapters of the TEA PARTY. They should be ready to oversee the elections, including the rampant fraud in the absentee ballot. Around the country the election rolls are crowded with the names of the deceased, others who have moved to a different state. There are many ways our most sacred of rights have been compromised and only the citizen voter can change it.
Remember under Obama Imperial court we will be paying not only for any person who illegally ventures here, but for millions of Americans who have found it easy, to just live of the taxpayer. Beneath our feet is abundance of wealth in oil, natural gas and coal for energy that President Obama denies us. Those trillions of dollars in excess gallons of crude oil could clearly go to replenish state treasuries and the remainder could be sold to our friends in other countries. Under Obama and decades of environmental zealots, we have not been cut off from our own resources, relying on governments abroad that hate us. Even the abundance of oil from Canada is better than dealing with foreign potentates.