logo

Polling and Prejudice: The Third Party Presidential Vote

image
Author: Damon Eris
Created: 09 July, 2012
Updated: 13 October, 2022
3 min read

third-party-presidential-vote

Recent polls show a highly competitive race between the Democratic and Republican party candidates for president. However, it appears that when polling organizations present the public with a more accurate reflection of the presidential ballot this is simply not the case.

A Gallup poll published last Friday found that roughly 7% of registered voters support a third party candidate for president. Among survey organizations, it is standard practice to exclude all third party and Independent candidates from their presidential tracking polls. The highly unusual poll conducted by Gallup last month included the names of three third party candidates in addition to the Democratic and Republican party nominees for president: Jill Stein of the Green Party, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party.

Of these three candidates, Gary Johnson had the most support at 3%, Jill Stein was preferred by 1% of respondents, and Virgil Goode obtained less than .5% support. Another 2% volunteered the name of Texas Congressman and former Republican party presidential candidate Ron Paul, and 1% volunteered the names of other individuals. A full 5% stated that they would not vote.

Among the major party candidates, President Obama came out on top in the survey at 47%, demonstrating a substantive lead over Republican Mitt Romney, who was preferred by 40% of those polled.

The reasoning behind Gallup's decision to include Johnson, Stein and Goode's names in this particular poll is highly revealing. The “special presidential preference question” includes “the names of all candidates who will appear on the ballot in a large number of states.” In other words, the “special presidential preference question” more accurately reflects the actual ballot choices for the office of president than the usual presidential polling question which only includes the names of the Democratic and Republican party candidates.

An obvious question thus arises: if the “special presidential preference question” is more accurate than the standard presidential preference question, why isn't the special presidential preference question the standard?

One potential response might be that the third party vote is insignificant. No third party candidate in the present poll received more than 3% support. Moreover, the fact that there were more individuals who said they would not vote than there were who said they would support any third party alternative to the Democrat and the Republican underscores the shallowness of the support for these candidates.

Yet, taken together, more than 7% of likely voters in the Gallup poll stated that they would vote for someone other than Obama or Romney and another 5% stated they would not vote for any of the candidates named in the poll. That exceeds the margin of victory between the Democratic and Republican candidates in the last six presidential elections.

IVP Existence Banner

Indeed, according to Gallup's own data, the third party vote is highly significant. In Gallup's standard presidential tracking poll, Obama and Romney are in a dead heat, “tied at 46% of the vote among registered voters since Gallup began its tracking program in April.” However, when Gallup presents its survey respondents with a choice that provides a more accurate reflection of the presidential ballot, this is clearly not the case, as the present poll shows Obama with a 7% lead over Romney.

Given this state of affairs, is there any reason – other than political bias – as to why a polling organization would not wish to furnish a more accurate reflection of the ballot in its political preference surveys?

As a final note, though the Gallup report stated that Jill Stein will appear on the November ballot as the Green party's candidate for president, she has not yet been officially nominated by the party. The Greens will be holding their national convention later this week.

Latest articles

Voter
Independent Voters Are Many Things -- A Myth Isn't One of Them
Open Primaries continued its ongoing virtual discussion series Tuesday with a conversation on independent voters, who they are, and why we have a system that actively suppresses their voices at every level of elections and government....
08 May, 2024
-
2 min read
RFK Jr
RFK Jr Challenges Trump to Debate; Calls Out 'Fake Polls'
Independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy extended a challenge Tuesday to former President Donald Trump to debate him at the Libertarian National Convention at the end of May....
07 May, 2024
-
3 min read
South Dakota Capitol Building
South Dakota Open Primaries Submits 47K Signatures to Get Nonpartisan Primary Reform on the Ballot
One week after the Idahoans for Open Primaries coalition submitted roughly 30,000 more signatures than they needed to get a nonpartisan top-four primary system on the ballot, South Dakota Open Primaries met the required number of signatures in their own state to put a top-two system before voters....
07 May, 2024
-
4 min read